More samples of "blackmail" | IMF receipts for …

The recent statements by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) about the IMF still resonate: "They will no longer decide on Mexico's agenda." For the president, the Fund's revenues have led to the destruction of Mexican petrochemicals and "unleashing insecurity, violence in the country … so how are they going to think about it? ? "

This came last Tuesday, after reviewing Mexico's GDP growth, considered in updating the IMF's report on the outlook for the global economy. There it is reported that Mexico will post 0.9% growth this year, 0.7 percentage point lower than the April projection.

The correction is important, even if it does not attract attention. Among the arguments put forward by the IMF, we quote: "Investment remains low and private consumption has slowed down due to policy uncertainty, deteriorating confidence and rising borrowing costs, which they could continue to increase after the recent downgrade of the sovereign rating ". This is a good example of how it seeks to distort the agenda of a government that does not share its ideas: the IMF and rating allies in achieving these goals.

In Brazil, which does not have a program with the Fund, the IMF's balance sheet was even larger: it went from 2019 to a growth of 2.1% to 0.8%, an almost unprecedented reduction (1 , 3 point). How is it possible that the agency is mistaken so badly in forecasts with the considerable technical resources available to it? In the end, the idea of ​​a promising future that never comes. The answer always comes from the side of politics.

According to the Fund, "the significant revision reflects credit rating reductions in Brazil (where the mood has deteriorated markedly due to lingering uncertainty surrounding the approval of pensions and other structural reforms) ". As a result, the Brazilian government has just announced a budget adjustment of $ 375 million for the rest of the year, knowing that, despite less than expected activity, tax revenues will be lower than expected. A typical vicious circle, as greater spending adjustment will further affect activity and government revenues and further reduce market confidence.

Ecuador is one of the countries in the region "benefiting" from an IMF loan since last March. Unlike Mexico and Brazil, the recommendations presented here are much more explicit and binding and are now called conditionalities. During the first review (July), the Board highlighted the following points: (a) "Protection of the poor and the most vulnerable remains a key priority" (although very limited resources are allocated for this purpose); (b) "Labor market reforms are essential to support job creation, as well as to boost competitiveness and growth. Measures are needed to facilitate recruitment, reduce rigidities and informality "; (c) "The Government of Ecuador has shown that it is determined to restore fiscal discipline through the rationalization of public expenditures. The planned tax reform will be decisive (…) ".

In Argentina, canyons are focused on conditioning the presidential elections. In its latest review, the IMF said: "The firm implementation of the policies that underpin the IMF-supported program will be critical to making steady progress. While macroeconomic stability is strengthened, political efforts must focus on reactivating structural reform plans. "That is to say that after a stalemate to try to give more chances to the current government in the elections, the reforms come back.It is said explicitly that the risks" may be exacerbated by market reactions. facing the political uncertainty related to the upcoming elections ".

If anything is clear, the agency is still landing with the same set of market-friendly "turnkey" measures. However, in the next elections, it is essential to break the vicious circle of adjustment and reform.

* Heller is president of the Solidarity Party.