Nayib Bukele, president of the "millennium", faces the challenge of governing one of the most violent and poorest countries in America



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Leather jacket or casual coat adorned with a handkerchief. Jeans and T-shirt Sunglbades or cap with visor. The beard is perfectly cut and the mobile phone always at hand selfie or a tweet.

Nayib Bukele is not only the first president millennium from America to be born in 1981 and to be 37 years old. His personal image has been carefully constructed to look like a member of this generation.

The contrast with traditional Salvadoran politicians could not be greater. Especially with the outgoing president, the discredited Salvador Sánchez Cerén. A member of the National Liberation Front (FMLN), 74-year-old Farabundo Marti, he is the archetype of the old leftist populist leader.

The counterpoint between these two opposing images allows us to understand that a leader who had no political party a year ago managed to shave off the elections last Sunday, with 53.1% of the votes. The second with 31.7% was Carlos Calleja, from ARENA, the party of conservative sectors, which ruled continuously between 1989 and 2009. It ended with 14.4% of the vote, Hugo Martínez, candidate FMLN, who served for ten years. .

"The triumph of Bukele is mainly due to the widespread political disaffection of many Salvadoransas a result of discredit and low levels of trust in the parties and the worsening of economic and security problems over the last decade. Satiety and repudiation have generated an anti-system sentiment that mobilizes voters towards alternative political options or non-partisanship, "said Jeannette Aguilar, researcher specializing in citizen security policies, consulted by Infobae.

What is interesting is that few Salvadorans really know about Bukele's plans because he did not say much during the campaign. Your ability to position yourself as a perish candidate directly badociated with your knowledge of the advertising world, since he's been leading a major business in the sector before entering politics. And he was able to move many tools from one place to another, to sell himself.

However, he has always avoided giving details of his government program, summarized in a series of more or less vague messages on the fight against corruption. The lack of conceptual definitions was reinforced by his refusal to participate in the pre-election debates and by the few interviews he gave..

So, the big question that everyone has is is how do you plan to face the biggest challenges of the country?. With the highest homicide rate in the world, a state with serious institutional deficiencies, a very precarious economy and millions of people living in absolute poverty, this mission seems almost impossible.

An apparition that shook Salvadoran politics

"I think that Buekele's victory in these elections is due to two factors: the first is the decline of the two major parties, which have lost thousands of voters in recent years for failing to reform their leadership, for promoting counterproductive security policies that have claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Salvadorans over the last 20 yearsand by the many corruption scandals that have sprinkled many of its leaders. Second, I think Bukele's profile as a young candidate, outsider A politician and successful businessman has been very well received in a mostly young society and feels disconnected from the parties, "said Sofía Martínez, consultant for Central America at International Crisis Group, in dialogue with Infobae.

Barely seven years of political career was elected president. Until 2011, he was a young entrepreneur renowned for his work at the head of the advertising company he had inherited from his father.

But in 2012, he decided to make the jump and competed for the town hall of Nuevo Cuscatlán, a municipality not exceeding 8,000 inhabitants. What is curious is that even though he presented himself today as the face of renewal, he became a candidate for FMLN.

This triumph gave him more visibility and attracted the attention of the leadership of the party, which needed young cadres, adapted to the twenty-first century. Therefore, in 2015, they offered to compete for the government of the capital, San Salvador. After winning the elections, he became a national figure.

His leadership did not escape controversy and ended up fighting with FMLN leaders., afraid of an ambitious young man who could eventually take over. In September 2017, he played in his biggest scandal. Xochilt Marchelli, administrator of San Salvador and member of the FMLN, but confronted him, denounced him for physical and verbal aggression after entering a meeting of the Capital Council.

He said to me, "You are a bloody traitor, witch" and he threw me an apple, "Marchelli said. Bukele denied the accusation, but the FMLN leadership expelled him the following month "for violating party principles".

Two weeks later, Bukele announced via Facebook the creation of his own party, New Ideas. A complex procedure was then initiated to obtain his registration, a necessary step to be able to submit a candidacy for the presidency.

Faced with the impossibility of meeting the requirements in time, the former mayor took another controversial twist: The Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) has registered his candidacy, a denial of responsibility of the ARENA very questioned. In the presidential elections of 2014, he was part of the alliance that led to the return to power of Elias Antonio Saca, president between 2004 and 2009, who would eventually be arrested in 2016 for acts of corruption committed during his government.

Aware that GANA could be a drag, Bukele did everything possible not to mention it and tried to avoid showing himself alongside his key leaders. He simply served as an instrument of candidacy, which shows that his political project is unipersonal..

Like many other successful politicians in recent years, the publicist has explained the lack of partisan structure through an intensive and innovative use of social networks, his favorite means of communication with people. electorate. El Salvador's elections proved once again that they constituted a tool with incalculable potential.

The big challenges facing Bukele

The newly elected president faces enormous challenges. None, comparable to the violence that has ravaged El Salvador for several decades.

The country has never fully recovered from the civil war that left more than 70,000 dead and 8,000 missing between 1980 and 1992.. When the government and the guerrillas gathered in the FMLN, which signed the Chapultepec peace agreement, the political violence decreased, but was gradually replaced by the criminal one.

"Since the end of the civil war, it is estimated that more than 90,000 Salvadorans have lost their lives to criminal violence Said Martinez. And after 20 years of uncompromising security policies, which have only worsened the situation, we have no idea what Bukele wants to do to end the gangs, let them go. origin of many armed violence. As far as I know, neither he nor his team has a government plan on this issue, beyond the importance of prevention and the attention paid to young people, who are the main victims and perpetrators of the murders. "

In 2017, 3,954 people were murdered. With 60.1 homicides per 100,000 population, El Salvador has the highest rate in the world, according to data from the Igarapé Institute.

The star of this plot is the Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, name that brings together a group of criminal organizations and gangs appeared in the Salvadoran community of Los Angeles, and that later extended to all Central America. Its territorial penetration and firepower in the country are so important that many believe that key politicians avoid openly confronting these groups for fear of reprisals.

"Bukele did not specify how he would cope with the country's major challenges, including that of crime. However, he gave clues in some areas, "he said. Infobae Héctor Samour, Professor in the Department of Philosophy of the Central American University of San Salvador. "He emphasized the priority given to prevention in relation to repression, the socio-economic development of communities where gangs are based, and providing the police with better resources to investigate crimes. . " He has been very critical of human rights violations. committed by soldiers and police and by the formation of extermination groups ".

Whatever the case may be, the many ambiguities that have characterized Bukele throughout his career make it really impossible to know what strategy he will follow. Especially because of the contradictions that exist between certain elements of his speech and what his GANA allies have always supported.

"Academia and the human rights sector are worried about GANA's role in leading public safety," said Aguilar. One of the main leaders of this party has promoted and encouraged the existence of self-defense and extermination groups, and has openly called for the execution of gang members.in addition to prioritizing measures to ensure impunity for police officers designated to participate in these events. If we consider Bukele's populist style, there is a huge risk of falling back into the trap of fanciful solutions or false beginnings to temporarily rebadure the citizen's demand. "

The other big challenge facing the president is rebuilding a long-dead economy. With a per capita GDP of $ 8,388, it ranks 28 out of 32 in Latin America and the Caribbean.. In addition, it is one of the lowest human development countries in the region (27 out of 32).

"The economic challenge is, in five years, to consolidate a government with the ability to dialogue with businessmen, to overcome the anti-business mask with an agreement between the state and the private sector. To build trust, encourage domestic production, investment and legal guarantees. It should also reduce the external debt which increases each year its interests. It should only pursue the social programs of poverty eradication inherited from the World Bank, "he said. Infobae sociologist José Eduardo Sancho, researcher at Francisco Gavidia University and former member of the FMLN delegation in Chapultepec agreements.

The country's limited capacity to generate wealth translates into precarious living conditions for the majority of the population. According to CEPAL, which sets low poverty lines, 28.3% of Salvadorans are poor, proportion exceeded only by Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

The combination of violence and misery expels thousands of people every year. According to the latest data published by the UN, 1,559,924 Salvadorans live in other countries The majority in the United States represents 24.5% of the country's population. Twenty years ago, they were about 16%, which reveals the material deterioration that has known the country.

"Faced with the fiscal crisis and the debt problem, Bukele spoke of progressive tax reform and the fight against tax evasion and tax evasion. In addition, the construction of a new airport in the east of the country and a train that would cross the entire territory to strengthen the transport of people and goods, as well as the economy in general, "Samour said.

These are all proposals for which it is not clear how you will get funding. On the other hand, even if he got the resources, can hardly be applied effectively if there is no in-depth reform in the state, that he has tremendous difficulty in performing his duties and that he is traversed by corruption.

Almost all former presidents have had serious justice problems. In the case of Elías Antonio Saca is joined by Mauricio Funes, who ruled between 2009 and 2014and that he had to seek asylum in Nicaragua not to end up in jail; and that of Francisco Flores, president between 1999 and 2004, who died while looking for embezzlement, donated to the victims of the 2001 earthquake.

This is the only subject on which Bukele gave details. This is the thematic focus of his campaign and he stated that he would favor the creation of an international commission against impunity, similar to that which exists in Guatemala. To go in this direction, you will need the support of the opposition in Parliament.

"Bukele's biggest challenge is to see if he is able to govern without a party or ally in the legislature. Said Martinez. He won under the acronym of GANA, a right-wing party that was in the doldrums and that was virtually bought to be able to use as a political vehicle in these elections. But he does not represent GANA or his constituents, but his New Ideas movement, which does not count a single MP in the Assembly. "

ARENA and its allies control the majority of the Assembly with 49 seats, followed by FMLN with 23 seats. GANA is barely 10 years old, and there is not even any certainty that he will accompany him in all his initiatives.

"The fundamental problem of his government is that it will have no legislative force and that many of the measures it proposes require a majority in the Assembly. Will have to engage with other parties to reach consensus and support their policies. But also with the powerful business sector, the economy and the media, "Samour said.

Finally, Bukele must reposition El Salvador on the international stage, after years of alliance with the Venezuelan Chavismo who no longer works as before. In the election campaign, he condemned Nicolás Maduro's government and called for free elections in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Honduras.

"Diplomacy is another Gordian knot, which must seek balance, be active and versatile. An example would be to dismantle political and economic alignment with Venezuela and the defense of democratic alternation in Latin America. Costa Rica and Panama have a diplomacy of neutrality and have signed treaties with China. They have sovereignty, but they do not attack the United States and they trade, "concluded Sancho.

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