Negative forecasts continue: the World Bank forecasts a fall in the economy this year and until 2020

he world Bank predicts that the Argentine economy will suffer this year contraction of 3.1% and another will come down 1.2% in 2020, according to a report on the economic situation in Latin America published by this entity. he MFIs He will hold his annual meeting next week and give his own projections.

The World Bank study estimated that the country's productive activity could only return to the path of growth with a slight decline. reactivation of 1.4% in 2021. According to the report, Latin America and the Caribbean, not to mention Venezuela, will develop 0.8% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.

"The Argentine recession will deepen before the recovery begins, "said the entity, referring to the two years of continuous decline after the impact of the crisis. devaluation. The work has highlighted the fact that the Pacific, Central American and Caribbean countries will continue to grow faster, on average, than the Atlantic countries.

The report indicates that the largest economies in the region have faced recessions, macroeconomic turbulence or slower growth. Brasil will grow 0.9% Mexico, 0.6%and Colombia a 3.3% this year. And warned that "a brake on the global economy this could cause these prospects to deteriorate further ", although he said that" greater integration in international trade and global value chains could boost economic growth ".

The study indicates that the trade agreements concluded between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC), Mercosur and the European Union, negotiated over the past year ", represent opportunities for a more great commercial integration and, more regional dynamism "

"Both can have significant positive effects on growth, although the environmental impacts and potential negative impacts on certain areas need to be addressed," says the report, "Trade Integration as a Development Pathway?"

"After rapid growth due to high commodity prices in the first decade of the 21st century, the region is in full swing. poor stagesaid Martin Rama, chief economist of the World Bank for Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is experiencing not only slower growth than other emerging markets, but also much richer advanced economies, "he said.

And the estimate of the Bank is more pessimistic than the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, which had drastically reduced in July the forecast of economic growth in Latin America. 1.4% at 0.6%more than half of what was planned in his previous April study.

The IMF will update its growth forecasts next week at the autumn meeting with the World Bank in the US capital. The national government will be present at this event.

A team from the Ministry of Finance will visit Washington hold meetings with officials of the Monetary Fund. Following these meetings, the executive branch hopes to accelerate the planned disbursement since mid-September. $ 5400 million that the agency delays and that it will strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank.

With the new direction of the agency already taken in hand, under the hand of Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's board of directors could begin to consider the steps to be followed regarding the financial program with the country. A few weeks ago, David Lipton, acting director, had stated that "the relationship with Argentina will have to wait."

A few hours later, Georgieva had his first meeting as the boss of the body with Hernán Lacunza and thus gave a sign of support to the country facing financial uncertainty: "Argentina is in the top priorities for the Fund, "commented the senior IMF official.