Negotiations with the EU blocked, Brexit enters its most critical hour

PARIS – More than four days before a crucial vote of the British Parliament, which must decide on the future of Britain in the

European Union

(EU), nobody knows yet what is the fate of the

Brexit

, scheduled for March 29.

Despite this general pessimism, European and British diplomats in Brussels showed this week fewer catastrophists.

In a new attempt to get the agreement accepted – not only British MPs but also Brussels officials – the Prime Minister

Theresa May

yesterday, he asked the Europeans "one last effort".

"It is time to act, we just need an extra effort to address the very specific concerns of our Parliament," said May.

At the same time, in an intense speech during a visit to a business in northeastern England, he warned the House of Commons that, if they rejected Brexit, no one knew what was happening. pbad.

"Next week, MPs will face a crucial decision in Westminster: support the Brexit agreement or reject it, support it and Britain will leave the EU, reject it and nobody do not know what will happen, "he said.

On January 15, British MPs overwhelmingly rejected a first agreement. Since then, May has again negotiated with the EU, which is still studying some of London's proposals, aimed in particular at changing the most controversial point of the original agreement:
backstop or a safety net, designed to prevent the return of a physical boundary between the Republic of Ireland and the British province of Ulster (Northern Ireland). The same thing, which should come into effect two years after the Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on future trade relations, encourages fans to leave the bloc.

The British are afraid of being stuck indefinitely in this
backstop this would force them to remain in the customs union and, consequently, to be deprived of an independent commercial policy.

The other 27 countries in the bloc refuse to set deadlines or London can unilaterally release
backstop, who consider an insurance against all risks. But they are willing to make procedural concessions, likely to reinforce the EU's legal commitment that this safety net is only intended to be used temporarily.

The risks

The new British proposals were presented in Brussels on February 26th. Since then, the negotiators of both sides have been working tirelessly, as the risk of falling into the big void of a "hard Brexit" or agreement (dangerously tight) is approaching (
not agree).

According to European sources, the negotiators converge on the idea of ​​adding to the divorce contract a text – of unquestionable legal value – which would contain the promise made in London that the EU would do everything to negotiate a satisfactory relationship with the Commission. Great Britain, from March 29th.

Absolutely uncompromising from the beginning before the possibility of opting for a B plan to their agreement, May was eventually forced to turn around. In a speech to Parliament at the end of February, he explained his intention to proceed in three stages. First, on March 12, he will put to the vote of the parliamentarians a modified version of the divorce agreement that he signed in November with Brussels and which the House of Commons overwhelmingly rejected in January.

If this new text is vetoed by the Parliament on the 13th, she will ask MEPs if they wish to leave the EU without an agreement (
not agree). If they refuse, they will vote on March 14 on a motion on the possibility of extending "for a short and limited period Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty" which had initiated the process of exit from the EU. EU two years ago.

May repeats tirelessly that he opposes this postponement, saying that he could never go beyond June, otherwise the UK would be forced to participate in the European elections at the end of May. In other words, the head of government has done everything to save time in the hope that Brussels or the British MPs will eventually agree to avoid a chaotic solution.

It is in this atmosphere of extreme tension that Europe is entering the final stretch. Both on the continent and in London, the fever increases at the prospect of a
not agreecatastrophic for everyone, but especially for Britain, which would lose between 5 and 7 points of GDP and thousands of jobs.

When there is only 48 hours left for the decisive week, even if no one excludes the hypothesis of a failure of negotiations or a British exit without share agreement and across the Channel, the scenario of a Brexit rollback of three or four months wins all the bets

But a glimmer of optimism has emerged in Brussels in recent days. This was confirmed yesterday by a British source close to the negotiation, saying that the possibility of reaching a compromise was "a little more than one chance out of two".

Who is who in Brexit

Theresa May (British Prime Minister)

Brexit marks all its management and could also be the cause of its eventual fall. The Prime Minister is still struggling unsuccessfully to reconcile the opposing factions within her own Conservative party on what should be the exit of the European Union and honor the 2016 referendum.

Donald Tusk (President of the European Council) Jean-Claude Juncker (President of the European Commission)

• They lead the firm stance taken by Brussels in the negotiations. Tusk said: "In hell, there is a special place for those who promoted Brexit without having a plan to do it."

Jeremy Corbyn (union leader)

• As head of Britain's main opposition party, he lobbied the government for a "fire" in Brexit. But Corbyn was ambivalent about Brexit. In 1975, he voted in favor of the exit.

Stephen Barclay (Brexit Minister)

• Since November he has had the difficult task of negotiating with Brussels the future of more than 161 treaties that characterize relations between London and Europe. It has already reached agreement in 43 treaties.

Jeremy Hunt (Chancellor)

• He badumed last July. Until 2017, he was in favor of staying in the EU, but then changed his mind due to "the arrogance of the European Commission" in the Brexit negotiations.

Leo Varadkar (Prime Minister)

• After the Brexit, London will leave the customs union and the single market. But Ireland refuses to have a "hard border" with Ulster, the British region of Northern Ireland.

Arlene Forster (Leader of the Labor Party)

• The North Irish leader opposes the existence of a "hard border" with neighboring Ireland and rejects the rule of security, the clause proposed by May in May for the line of border.