New projections How long will the dollar last and how will inflation close in 2019?

The current electoral uncertainty in Argentina poses risks to the expectations of the country's economy.

According to the latest edition of the report
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, it is expected that

l & # 39; inflation

The 2019 annual report is 39.9%. This value is 0.8 point higher than last month's report estimate. Meanwhile, they are expecting 27% next year, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than what they estimated in June.

The latest official data from
inflation are from May when the

Indec

confirmed the slowdown in price increases. The CPI gave 3.1%, a value that reflects the second consecutive month of decline, after 3.4% in April and 4.7% in March.

Regarding the exchange rate, LatinFocus specialists expect a dollar of 50.33 dollars by the end of the year. Last month, by contrast, an expected rate of change of 28 cents was up.

By the end of next year, badysts say the dollar will be worth $ 61.03, down from the $ 61.36 expected in June.

According to the report, GDP is expected to shrink 1.4% in 2019, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from last month's projection. This will complete two consecutive years of contraction. By 2020, they expect an expansion of 2.1%, the same estimate as that of June.

Estimates of consensus forecasts for LatinFocus are similar to those presented in
the last publication of the Market Expectations Report (MER), a survey conducted by the Central Bank with economists and local and foreign entities.

In their latest edition, they have reduced the general inflation expected for this year from 40.3% to 40% (although they have revised upwards their basic indicator which now stands at 41.5%). Compared to their expectations for 2020, badysts put inflation at 27% (0.9 point higher the previous month).

According to the EMN, GDP in 2019 is expected to contract by 1.4% (-1.5% last month). At the same time, they have raised the projected growth for 2020 to 2.2% (before 2%). Regarding the exchange rate, they estimate that the big dollar will end in December at $ 50.20, a lower price of 80 cents at the price of $ 51 announced a month ago.

On the other hand, the latest forecasts of

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

They are more optimistic. According to the agency, the Argentine economy will end in 2019 with a GDP fall of 1.2% and inflation of 30.5%.

"We are seeing signs that the recession may be easing and a gradual recovery is expected in the coming quarters," said Gerry Rice, the IMF's director of communications.

Inflation, he added, continues to be a "challenge", but in the fund, they expect it to continue to fall.