Nicaragua: with its banned parties and jailed leaders, the opposition debates its strategy to confront the Ortega regime

“For the moment, in the short term, the electoral route does not exist. There is total clarity in this, ”explains Nicaraguan sociologist Oscar René Vargas.

Later November 7 Nicaraguans, according to the official calendar, must go to the polls to elect the new president and members of the National Assembly. However, the electoral landscape is bleak. The few opposition parties that existed have been banned, the main opposition candidates have been arrested, and the lists of MPs to choose from are not even known.

Without further ado, six political forces, between parties and alliances, registered to participate in the electoral race. The ruling Sandinista Front has “the advantage”. He fully controls the electoral tribunal, eliminates competition from the opposition and Only parties over which he has maintained a clear influence in recent years participate.

The election campaign has not started either. According to electoral law, the campaign should have started on August 21, 70 days before the poll, but the Supreme Electoral Council moved the date to September 25, citing health reasons for the COVID pandemic.

The opposition, which has come to bet on the electoral path, in some cases, “with the conditions that existed”, has lacked short-term options and appears absent. From last May to this day, Daniel Ortega’s regime banned three opposition parties: the Democratic Restoration Party (PRD), which became the possible polling station for the National Opposition Coalition; Ciudadanos por la Libertad (CxL), main opposition party and Civic Alliance box; and the former Conservative Party (PC).

In the last three monthsAbout 30 of the main opposition leaders were also jailed, including seven who had expressed their intention to compete with Daniel Ortega in the November elections.

“We will continue to fight, because it is the people who make the opposition, it is not the polling stations, it is not even the leaders, those who make the opposition, it is the united people. ! And that’s what we’re betting on in Ciudadanos por la Libertad, ”Ciudadanos por la Libertad President Kitty Monterrey wrote on Twitter shortly after leaving through blind spots to Costa Rica after the regime banned his party and deprived him of Nicaraguan nationality.

Without electoral options, Nicaraguan opposition debates what to do on election day to prepare for post-election scenariothe. Some groups propose that the dissatisfied population go to the polls and vote “no” as a form of protest, and others, on the contrary, recommend that the population stay at home and let the Sandinista Front and its allies vote alone. This abstention speaks of disagreement and takes away the legitimacy of the elections, they say.

The former guerrilla and leader of the opposition movement Articulation des Movements Sociales (AMS), Mónica Baltodano, considers that part of the problem comes from the fact that “the opposition suffers from certain ills inherited from political culture: sectarianism, hegemonism. , and even caudillism. If these weaknesses are not overcome, the road to removing Ortega from power will be longer and more painful ”.

“For now, the opposition has two challenges: to end the dispersion without this leadership that Ortega beheaded, i.e. with a second line leadership, and the other challenge is to understand that the fight is no longer electoral», Says political scientist Eliseo Núñez, who assures that the Nicaraguan opposition, even if it seems to be the case, is not dead.

“There is an organized opposition, but by segments. The struggle right now is to bring these segments together. There are several segments that are there. Some without leadership, others opposing. Most have found themselves with little capacity for mobility because of the repression, but there are structures that are planted, of various types: political, civil society, and even trade unions ”.

For Nuñez, Ortega’s latest offensive hit the opposition hard as it was dispersed, with many differences between them. “What he is doing is beheading all those who could put an end to this controversy and this dispersion. Basically, what the opposition did before the leaders were jailed was to seek common ground, at the last minute and with a relatively low probability of success, but still posed a risk to Ortega. He hits the mark and does not give the opportunity ”.

Sociologist Oscar René Vargas is more pessimistic. “The results, from 2018 to 2021, can only be negative for the entire opposition. Its defeat at that time was a shell against the social struggle at the level of the facts. And we must not hide the truth: there are no good political defeats ”.

Vargas believes Ortega used the election to buy time against an opposition that is betting on solving the crisis in this way. “He has used the time to his advantage, not bothering to give up some tactical battles, but creating the conditions for big business and mainstream politicians to remain stagnant in their strategy of smooth passage through electoral channels.”

“Moreover, by accepting the electoral strategy as the only way out, the opposition ignored, in practice, the dictatorial character of the regime and its strategy to remain in power at all costs, whatever the international consequences.. Ortega continued to buy time, while his opponents refused to understand that the dictator’s strategy was power or death, ”he adds.

The electoral alternative being closed for the moment, the former Sandinista guerrilla Mónica Baltodano considers that there is “a political and moral imperative” to confront Ortega in other contexts. “The worst mistake we can make is to sit down and wait for the international community to solve the problem that Nicaraguans have in the first place,” he said.

“Besides, the majority of the people maintain their indignation and the will to fight against the dictatorship of Ortega. It is necessary to build shared strategies that integrate new forms of civic and peaceful resistance that arouse this popular indignation. We cannot let Ortega be screwed in power for another five years, ”he adds.

Eliseo Núñez thinks that the Nicaraguan organized opposition must show the people an alternative proposal. It is not enough, he says, to promise a return to democracy, but to present “a proposal which offers the Nicaraguan people that they will live better once Ortega leaves power”.

“Not all of these groups have an alternative proposal, but rather they are united in resentment against what Ortega has done, but he also has to build a power alternative and this is done with or without the electoral milestones.”

He says the negotiations led by the Venezuelan opposition with the Nicolás Maduro regime in Mexico will, if successful, have an impact on the internal forces of the ruling Sandinista party. “They will complain to Ortega that Maduro has found a negotiated solution at a cost relatively less than what they are paying. This will generate the need to find a settlement because they will see the example of Venezuela which has managed to get out of sanctions and economic prostration through dialogue ”.

By becoming an alternative of power, he believes, the Nicaraguan opposition becomes an interlocutor, modifies the balance of power, “and can advance the elections or the following ones, clean”.

For this to happen, and this is what Eliseo Núñez says the opposition is working on, three conditions must be met: that the different opposition groups overcome their differences “on the basis of meeting a ground of agreement “, that leadership be consolidated. line “to replace the kidnapped leaders, and that the pace of what is going to happen in Nicaragua is being driven by those who remain inside.” Exile can help, and it is trying to do , but exile is the rearguard of what the opposition can do on the inside, ”he said.

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