Nicolás Dujovne: Argentina can face the consequences of the trade war between the United States and China

Mauricio Macri has already badumed that monthly inflation and the dollar price would be the two key economic data that would determine his chances of re-election. Donald Trump has lobbied the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to allow the Central Bank to intervene in the markets when the value of the dollar rises for reasons of domestic politics or complex situations at the global level. And now, Macri is betting on softening the inflation indices that have grown at a rate that was not part of the calculations of the president and his economic cabinet.

In this context, Casa Rosada and the Finance Palace estimate that inflation is starting to fall and reactivation will be noticed as the presidential campaign moves forward. If that happens, they say that in Balcarce 50, Macri will be able to defeat Cristina Fernández in the ballot.

"Wait, we have to wait until tomorrow … Let's hope it"replied to the Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovnewhen asked whether inflation in April could fall to less than four percent.

In March, inflation reached 4.7%, in a context of economic recession that hurt Macri's image and its chances of being re-elected. A fall of almost a point could improve the election expectations of the president, who is preparing for a long campaign to defeat Cristina Fernández and his government program.

During his last public appearance, CFK justified José Ber Gelbard and his social agreement plan, which eventually led to an economic epidemic known as El Rodrigazo.

Inflation, Venezuela and the trade war

Dujovne plays an important role in the plans devised in Washington to rebuild Venezuela after the fall of Nicolás Maduro and the beginning of the democratic transition. A few hours ago, he received in his office Ricardo Hausmann, delegate of interim President Juan Guaidó to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Hausmann was a development professor at Harvard and contacted Dujovne and a handful of government officials (Cabinet, Chancery and Industry Headquarters) and the reconstruction and financial badistance plans designed in Buenos Aires to support the future democratic transition in Venezuela.

After meeting with Hausmann, Dujovne commented on the likely inflation in April and the trade war between the United States and China. He badured that the consequences of this global confrontation could be mitigated by the current economic plan and estimated that last month's inflation would be less than 4%.

– There is a trade war between the United States and China. What should Argentina do to avoid collateral damage? – Infobae asked Dujovne.
– We must continue our program of increasing our integration into the world, strengthening our financial position and becoming a less volatile economy. The stronger our financial position and the more credible our program, the less we will be affected by the movement of currencies and international financial flows, which will allow us to deepen what we have done so far.

– As a result of the trade war between the United States and China, soybean exports have declined. Should the government take additional measures?
– If the demand for soybeans decreases, we can not take action to increase demand that is decreasing. What we need to do is work to make the impacts generated by the international economy more easily absorbed by the local economy. And in this sense, eThe flexible exchange rate is the main shock absorber that the Argentine economy has today.

– Will there be inflation below 4% in April?
– Let's hope we have to wait until tomorrow … Let's hope so.

– Does it help the election campaign …?
– (smiles) It helps the economy. Help the Argentineans …