North Korea, more and more mysterious and hermetic

North Korean leader Kim jong un and the president Donald trump They were seated face to face at a circular wooden table to take a brief photo on its top of 2019 in Vietnam when American journalist asked Kim a question.

To the surprise of the world, he replied: first time Kim, the leader of the world’s most closed society, engaged with foreign media.

North Korea has been silent again for two and a half years. It has become so opaque that Kim’s surprising exchange in Hanoi seems unimaginable in today’s information vacuum.

North Korea closed its borders during the pandemic, including its largest trading partner, China, a move that the Human Rights Watch body said HIM HIM, worsening shortages of food and medical supplies. But the severe measure this also caused the loss of information first-hand country information that has helped policymakers make the connection between pressures and national trends that inform US policy toward the nuclear weapons regime.

The blockade caused a exodus of foreigners -diplomatic, cooperative members, business envoys and others- who could check state media reports on the totalitarian country. Their stories have helped decision makers make decisions about how to negotiate and engage with North Korea curb its growing nuclear ambitions, and on how to better understand the dynamics that guide the political calculations of the totalitarian leader.

“Trying to formulate sound policy options without opportunities for direct engagement is like stumbling in the dark“, noted Suzanne DiMaggio, main member of Carnegie Foundation for international peace and expert in diplomatic negotiations.

“In the case of North Korea, where we have a long history of very limited first-person interactions, it is particularly risky“He added. “Knowledge gained in face-to-face conversations, especially when sustained over time, is hard to beat”.

Pandemic paranoia

North Korea takes the pandemic very seriously, almost paranoia, analysts said.

Pyongyang is so strict in the application of its borders that ordered to shoot any intruder – even animals – without warning, according to an October 2020 decree obtained by NK News, a medium that follows North Korean affairs. Last month, North Korea shot dead South Korean official who disappeared from a fishing boat, then spray the man’s body with oil and set it on fire in an apparent anti-coronavirus measure, the South Korean military said.

In a military parade aired Thursday, the first in President Joe Biden’s term, lines of people dressed head-to-toe in orange coronavirus protective gear marched. State media photos offered one of the few glimpses analysts can analyze for information and clues about life under the regime.

“SIn a dark land, but these days are darker“, noted Kim Joon Hyung, professor of international relations at the Handong University of South Korea and former foreign policy adviser to the president Jae-in Moon.

“This Covid problem, added to the sanctions, scares them a lotKim said. “It’s an existential threat, I think, to them”.

North Korea is often referred to as the “Hermit Kingdom,” but until recently more information had entered and exited the country than the name suggests.

Some Western journalists have gone there to write articles, and Associated press he had an office in Pyongyang, but most of the foreign journalists have recently stayed outside North Korea.

Sue Mi Terry, principal investigator of Center for Strategic and International Studies, situated at Washington, and former analyst of the CIA on East Asia, he said those details may include: How serious is the food shortage? Is life getting better or worse? Are there signs of dissatisfaction?

“It’s a police state in which no one openly criticizes the supreme leader, but expert observers can pick up subtle clues about popular sentiment. It’s lost nowsaid Terry. “This makes it even more difficult to make informed political decisions regarding North Korea.”.

Lack of contact

Although the special envoy of Biden North Korea said it would meet “anywhere and anytime“With their North Korean counterparts to relaunch stalled nuclear negotiations, the administration has moved the North further away by renewing the travel ban to North Korea and organizing joint military exercises with South Korea, he said Frank Aum, Northeast Asia’s leading expert on American Institute of Peace. and former official of the Pentagon.

“The biggest obstacle right now to getting the kind of information we need for policymaking is the lack of contact with North Korea.“Aum said.

Most Western countries have withdrawn diplomatic personnel early 2020 due to food and medicine shortages. Diplomatic staff remain from a handful of other countries, including Russia, China, Syria and Cuba.

Even the number of defectors has dropped. Only two North Koreans made it to the South in the second quarter of 2021, the smallest quarterly tally in at least 18 years, further limiting recent first-person accounts of life there.

And the crackdown on the illegal use of cellphones has created barriers even for contacts who have long escaped state controls, he said. Robert Lauler, English editor at Daily NK, a Seoul-based news service with insiders in North Korea.

“Sources in North Korea must be able to make phone calls or connect to networks at times, and I think that has probably become much more difficult as they need to be more vigilant than maybe in the past.Lauler said.

The lack of information is a growing concern for analysts and aid groups alike, as it comes at a time when, according to the United Nations, ordinary North Koreans face severe food shortages. Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim called for efforts to prevent further economic damage from natural disasters or coronavirus outbreaks, state media reported.

“My great concern is that, firstly, the North Korean state security apparatus may conclude that this is a much better environment and recommend that leaders seriously reduce international participation, which will have an impact. on the information we can have“, noted Chad o’carroll, founder of NK News.

According to analysts, there were signs Kim was withdrawing from the outside world even before the pandemic hit. Some see the breakdown in negotiations at the Hanoi summit in February 2019 as a turning point, when Trump and Kim failed to come to an agreement.

Since the end of 2019, state media statements on autonomy have started to increase and detailed commentary on foreign affairs has become scarce, analysts said. The foreign affairs statements gave an idea of ​​what the leaders considered to be the most important events in the world.

There are also concerns about the lack of information reaching the country, especially for ordinary citizens, who are most in need.

Many deserters are unable to contact their families or send funds, affected by the repression of the intermediaries who organized these contacts.

“The people most in contact [con sus familias en Corea del Norte], they don’t know what’s going on with their family“, noted Sokeel Park, director in South Korea of ​​the non-governmental organization Freedom in North Korea, which helps North Koreans resettle in the South.

Park said he’s worried conditions won’t improve anytime soon. “It could be a new normal“, noted. “They were already very isolated, and it was hard to imagine that they would be any more so. But they succeeded”.

(C) The Washington Post.-

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