Oil workers think gasoline will not come down in December

Although fuels increased by more than 65% in 2018, the country's main refiners (YPF, Raizen – which bought the Shell and Axion businesses) lost together between 1 and 1.5 billion USD. not being able to transfer the devaluation to prices. This was calculated by a major sector leader, who preferred to keep the name in reserve.

This is why they believe that there is no margin now for a drop in the number of suppliers, despite the decline in international crude oil values. "It is unusual for a finance minister (Nicolás Dujovne, Finance) to talk about the price of fuel," said the same man.

For all of this, starting this Saturday, the naphtha will cost $ 0.97 more per liter and diesel $ 0.70, an increase of 14.1% in the fuel transfer tax (ITC). Refiners will decide between today and tomorrow if they will absorb this increase or transfer it to prices.

It's paradoxical: while in March, May and October, there was no increase in gasoline and in September, there were 4 different increases, or 24 %, the oil companies have lost millions of dollars for their refining and sales of fuels, they had not known since the crisis of 2001/2002. There are reasons: they argue that, mainly because of the devaluation, but also because of the increase in oil (which has fallen by 30% in the last 50 days only), from May to November, they could not have the freedom to charge what really matches the pumps according to the import parity. At the end of August, the gap reached 30%.

YPF, which dominates 55% of the fuel sales market, informed the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange that in the third quarter of 2018, it lost $ 908 million, or $ 30 million, taking into account the fact that between July and September, the dollar had gone from $ 27 in the first two months of the quarter to $ 42 at the end. According to private sources, Shell (and Raizen since October when it bought the Downstream business) had generated negative results of about US $ 30 million per month. Axion, by contrast, reportedly lost around 300 million US dollars during the year.

What has most affected the number of companies, as they think, is the price freeze that the government launched in early May to put an end to inflation, just like the devaluation that led to the dollar, initially, at $ 20. at $ 25. In return, there was a compensatory account in favor of the oil companies, which has not yet been recovered.

The freeze, initially scheduled to last three months, but partially dismantled in June due to the increased transfer of the fuel tax, generated losses of one billion US dollars.