On Wall Street, believe that the crisis could force the government to activate the "Plan V"

WASHINGTON – The latest lash of the market for Argentine badets has given oxygen to a question that until recently was barely a whisper on Wall Street: yes, given the loss of confidence and

a choice that seems more and more complicated,

President Mauricio Macri will retire and Casa Rosada will activate Plan V.

Speculation on a possible presidential candidacy of the governor of Buenos Aires,

Maria Eugenia Vidal,

It has risen in recent days with the rise of country risk, which has set a new record for the Macri presidency and has settled on the default territory.

Analysts, traders and investment fund managers see the sanctions of Argentine bonds as a reflection of investors' doubts about the future of debt and, above all, of the opportunities Macri has to reverse the crisis and bad mood. It is time to have enough air for the October elections.

Miguel Ángel Pichetto, Senator of Alternativa Federal, held two meetings with investors in New York, one organized by BBVA Bank with Black Rock Funds and VR Capital, and another at Barclays with banks and funds. d & # 39; investment.

Before the question, Pichetto, as he could know
THE NATION, said Roberto Lavagna as an badault pilot, said Cristina Kirchner would be a candidate and ruled out a plan for Vidal.

The legislator also sought to dispel doubts about a possible federal government government stating that it would respect the country's commitments. "The first will is compliance," he said.

Beyond speculation, the cimbronazo of recent days has exposed the damage that has undermined the credibility of the government and the plan with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

A year after the beginning of the exchange rate that triggered the crisis, and despite the bailout of 57,000 million US dollars, the debt shows figures comparable to those of 2014, even though the macroeconomy began to be commissioned. "The certainty that Macri defeated Cristina was lost," summed up a fund manager. "If you had previously two scenarios, one in which Macri's winning probability was 75% and the other in which the CFK's winning probability was 25%, now this scenario is 50" -50 ", he added.

This reading on the market began to take root in the fear of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Given the binary polarization scenario posed by the government, the panic of Cristina's return feeds the sell-off of bonds and equities, further reducing the chances of a ruling party triumph in October.

Another point of view posed a deeper problem than that of electoral uncertainty: a persistent mistrust of savers and investors ended up imposing a new race and a restructuring of the debt. This vision, however, is still far from consensus: at least three badysts have indicated that the maturity scenario is "manageable". "There is no need to restructure." With the Fund and the improvement of the budget accounts, you are not obliged to do it, it's a question of willingness to pay, not of capacity, "they said in an investment bank.

Another badyst also did not consider debt maturities as a serious problem in the years to come, but that made a difference: "Macri and Lavagna should be able to refinance their debt, Cristina, no."

recalculate

The market, he badessed, sees that the odds are starting to change in favor of Cristina Kirchner and, for many, a new default in debt payments or, in the best of cases, a "bad debt". an unattractive restructuring for investors.

"The market thinks Macri is running out of options to reverse the situation," said the badyst. "What they are asking me is that if it led to the exit of Macri, it would be a way to end this volatility, which would limit damage to the economy," he said. he added.

Alberto Bernal, of XP Securities, said the debt is sustainable and that Argentina is facing a problem of expectations, with investors willing to capitulate before election uncertainty. XP Securities released a report a few days ago after the annual meeting of the Fund and the World Bank, in which it claimed that if Macri's popularity continued to fall, Vidal would be a candidate.

"For me, the scenario is still the same two or three weeks ago, the country will have to choose between continuity or something similar to continuity, or go back in time, and I still think Argentina will take the decision not to return, "he said.

Speculation about Vidal's future is realizing that the crisis seems to have reached a point where economic announcements or adjustments made to the program with the Fund have gone to the background, and the solution is now bound more to politics than ever. Nevertheless, some have ruled out a change in nominations: they see Macri determined to compete. "It's Macri, yes or yes," said one of the sources.

But others believe that a further deterioration of the economy and the financial situation could disrupt the plans of the ruling party. While some believe that there is still hope that the economy will recover over time, insist that without a stable dollar and low inflation, Macri will face a crisis of confidence and will be very difficult to overcome.