One dollar for Macri – THE NACION



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One dollar for Macri – THE NACION


Carlos Pagni


Listen to the column in podcast format

Below are his main concepts:

  • It was an important day for the economic recipe that leads

    Mauricio Macri

    because after
    long negotiations that took place over the weekend, which seems to be a kind of paradox has been achieved: the one in the field of non-interventional exchanges
    there will be an exchange intervention. The Central Bank has obtained permission from the International Monetary Fund to intervene in the foreign exchange market and reduce expectations of devaluation

  • There has been a discussion between the economic team and the Fund authorities since the launch of this program. The representative of the United States to the Fund, David Lipton, is a free Taliban, that is to say that he believes that the exchange rate, the relationship between the price of the peso and the dollar, must to be set by the market with supply and demand. . The Fund with Argentina has a particular warning that the exchange rate is not delayed, that too few reserves are spent to maintain a cheap exchange rate
  • The government has managed to snatch Lipton from the gang system, for which there is a ceiling of $ 51 (although the government can not spend all that is going on to defend this ceiling), as well as an idea that If there is a greater devaluation than within the reasonable in the day, within the band, the central bank can step in to moderate this devaluation.
    Nicolás Dujovne and Guido Sandleris have now realized this possibility to intervene within the band so that the dollar does not escape
  • What is it for? One could say they are trying to adjust a dollar so that the Argentinean economy has the level of competitiveness needed to allow companies to export and run the economy. But the goal is not that, but to stabilize the exchange rate because the application of Macri increases and decreases in its consistency with the price of the dollar. This exchange policy has an electoral priority
  • The economic team tells Lipton that if the devaluation of the dollar against the euro does not appear on the cover of the New York Times, the tradition and the Argentinean cash culture of the country appear in all the newspapers and it affects directly in inflation expectations
  • This also raises another problem related to debt. The dollar may stabilize, but country risk will increase. An advance payment of the debt is envisaged to show that the country is solvent. Dujovne tries to keep several bullets in the air at the same time: dollar inflation; Macri's candidacy; The solvency of thinking about country risk; and fiscal stability
  • The

    Macri application

    is under discussion within

    change

    and different proposals are heard: those who say that we are going with Vidal, because it is more competitive; those who support Lavagna, because he can form a wider coalition; and others who believe like Lousteau in a larger STEP within the change

  • The discussion is about how things go. Let's change and we try to discuss the possibility of finding a vehicle for areas that do not want to come back.

    Cristina Kirchner

  • Faced with this, there is the problem of the difficulty of replacing Macri, who does not want to give up his candidacy and awaits the result today to see if there is a recovery of confidence in the government to manage the economic variables .
  • The other problem is that it is a personalist government. The reform of 94 allows the president to represent himself and is obliged, because the non-appointment is interpreted as a failure of the government.
  • Macri is very shocked by a rumor that he has perceived. There was a conversation between Juan Grabois and Jorge Fontevecchia where apparently Grabois, out of the mike, said: "We will do a race and we will stay in the street until Macri leaves". This happened to Durán Barba and through him to Macri, who thinks: "If we run here, they will come for us all". It's a fantastic argument to justify your own candidacy
  • An important timeline should be kept in mind – dates marking political milestones in the power dispute. On May 24th or 25th, there will be a radicalization convention in which will be discussed the degree of adhesion obtained by Pro and the candidacy of Macri by this party. June 12 will know what are the alliances and 22 who are the candidates
  • Carlos Buscaglia said long ago that in 2017, people bought a billion dollars a month and that since we know that Cristina will be a candidate, that number has doubled. What will happen to the dollar if Cristina shows up? Will they reach the measures of today?
  • The ex-president knows how those who do not want to look at her. That's why he does not speak, but he writes. He wrote a book. For now, we must know that it is presented on May 9 at the Book Fair. Maybe there is an indication?


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