One hundred days of Bolsonaro: a paratrooper in Brasilia

Wednesday, the first hundred days of the government of the former paratrooper Jair Bolsonaro You can draw conclusions about what was and will be his management of the South American giant. The first hundred days that begin to unveil the question asked last October about what the government of the exhibitor until now little known to the Far right Latin American.

First, when Bolsonaro swept the first round of October 7, 2018 with the 46% of the votes aroused the fear of many with regard to violence because of their recurrence attacks on minorities and the effects that this discourse could have on society. An example that resonated in the Argentina This took place here in Pernambuco, when the organizers of the CumpliCidades Festival decided to withdraw the program's work "push"From Argentina Ezequiel Barrios. According to the organizers of the event, this decision was taken as a precaution due to the climate of persecution suffered by the population. LGBT in the weeks following the first round. However, after a hundred days of government, the climate of social violence directly badociated with the election of Bolsonaro (as the legitimator of violence over minorities) has dissipated. On the other hand, the election of Bolsonaro had an effect on the police violence, fueled by the speech of hard hand especially in Rio de Janeiro and San Pablo. The governors of these states, as well as Bolsonaro himself, have repeatedly praised police officers who shoot at offenders. Last Sunday, in Rio de Janeiro, an army patrol opened fire on a car in which an entire family was traveling, confusing it with criminals. They were near eighty shots against the car and the balance of one dead and two wounded. The family was heading for a baby shower. The military will be tried by the military justice. In this context, the package of laws presented by the Minister of Justice and Security, Sergio Moro, the National Congress extends the legitimate defense of the police with the possibility of exempting it from punishment if it acts under "excessive fear, surprise or violent emotion". One point that his detractors have called "license to kill".

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As for politics and, again, comparing the present with the October elections, the most important point is that Jair Bolsonaro has lost the opportunity to become the undisputed ruler of the new Brazilian right. The right-wing wave of the elections crowned the right-wing governors of the three states with the largest number of voters. In San Pablo, which has 33 million voters, which corresponds to 22.4% of electoral lists, the right wave has chosen João Doria after Bolsonaro explicitly expressed his support. In Minas Gerais, the NOVO party got its first governor from the hand of the businessman Romeu Zema. A judge with a speech almost identical to that of Bolsonaro won the governorship of Rio de Janeiro, Wilson Witzel. Jair Bolsonaro's PSL won the first three governors in its history. With the exception of the north-east, the center-right and the right predominated in the governorates of all regions of the country. However, the new right-wing governors, who defeated Bolsonaro in October, began to distance themselves. The most important case is that of João Doria, of San Pablo, who is in full argument with the PSDB's historic wing for the control of the match. In a short time, Bolsonaro lost the ability to coach the governors behind him because of lack of leadership and a government with more noises than facts.

Carlos Pereira, Political scientist of Getúlio Vargas Foundation, he did a job in which he places the average legislator of the new Chamber of Deputies in the center-right. For Pereira, all the conditions were in place for Bolsonaro to articulate a broad base of congressional support based on ideological affinity. But this possibility was ruined because the president rejected the formation of coalitions and badociated him with take the day (give and take) of "the old policy". It would have been wise to form such a coalition, to isolate the PT and the left parties and to consolidate itself as a right-wing and critical-political leadership. The occasion for the latter was spoiled in these hundred days of government. The possibility of forming a coalition is always open, though far away.

The second political fact of these hundred days is that Bolsonaro's confrontation with the so-called old politics played a leading role. Facundo Cruz Last October, he described the dilemma that the new government would face: respecting the desire of its electoral base, denying the political system and partisan madness, or maintaining the status quo and yielding to the motives of the system that would eventually convert it. . "In one more, and not in another". Bolsonaro's strategy has broken with the traditional Brazilian coalition presidentialism that guarantees governability by integrating other parties into government. In this scenario, a fragmented National Congress not only endangers the government agenda, but also, in the future, its very survival. The impeachment Fernando Collor de Melo (1992) and Dilma Rousseff (2016) they have more in common the confrontation of these with Congress and the loss of popular support than to have violated Law 1079/50, which defines the "crimes of responsibility" by which the indictment may be conducted . A law of this type is too broad and imprecise. The decisive factor is therefore not so much its violation as the will of the Congress. Bolsonaro himself with the tweet about rain of gold has already committed one of the 69 listed crimes: "act inconsistently with the dignity, honor and decorum of the prosecution".

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The conclusion of these first hundred days is that Bolsonaro transits and will continue to transit this logic of "new political as opposed to old political" confrontation for a while, tending and sometimes distending relations with parties and their leaders, particularly in Congress. The stability that a coalition would offer today is something distant, and even in light of the clashes that have taken place so far, it is likely that any coalition in the future would be far from being a majority.

Bolsonaro has so far had the luxury of facing the political clbad without incurring the costs, first of all because he has just been elected. Speaking of imputation at this point, it's a coup d'etat, said Gleisi Hoffmann, president of the PT, while collaborating to install this ghost on the horizon of the government. Secondly, the confrontation between the executive and the Congress has been tempered, because the need for pension reform is pre-eminent on the public agenda, for which a special 3/5 majority is needed. The short circuits between Bolsonaro and the Congress were followed by a loud loby on behalf of the great Brazilian businessmen so that the members of Congress cooperate in the reform. Therefore, the pressure for pension reform At the same time that it exerts pressure on the government, it confers on it the advantage of being a pressure shared by the Congress. That Congress makes the reform of the pension system unsustainable would fuel the anti-political fire (whose smoke is Jair Bolsonaro), even if it is an unpopular reform. Pressures from the economic establishment and the widespread diagnosis of the need for such a reform spur "some" reform. The lack of political articulation of the government and its confrontation with what Bolsonaro calls an old policy makes the proposed reform unachievable. Therefore, a much more conservative reform than the one sent to Congress by the government should take place.

In terms of citizen support to the government, these 100 days have shown a steady decline in the approval rate. Having started its management with about 50% approval, we are today around 30% Support for the government, in turn, must be divided between those who are its core, the Bolonarists, and those who voted for it and who supported it above all in terms of anti-racism. AT Guillermo Raffo, a Sao Paulo-based political consultant, the loss of support for Bolsonaro is among those who elected him to represent an opposition to the PT and who were expecting a more orderly government, more concerned with solving problems concrete of their lives, such as the economy and society. Raffo security estimates the hard core of Bolsonism around the 17/20 that he had before the start of the campaign.

Over the past 100 days, Bolsonaro has tended to retreat into himself and his own support base, though important (especially since he is an extreme right), constantly not to be a minority. The flexibilisation of the possession of weapons, the controversy surrounding the commemoration of the coup, the ongoing attack on the media, are some of the facts that do not develop beyond their support base. On the other hand, the attack against the Venezuelan government, the approach to the United States and the presentation of the anti-crime package of the former judge Sergio Moro are well-seen measures beyond their base. In any case, the possibility of creating a durable and majority right-wing project with Bolsonaro is beginning to diminish, as polls show, due to the government's controversy and some signs of economic resolution. However, as long as no other leadership appears on the outside Workers Party, Bolsonaro will remain the only option for this anti-petist majority who placed him in the presidency.

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These hundred days also highlighted the difficulties of the Workers Party to approach other leftist parties such as the PDT of Ciro Gomes With Lula prisoner (that because of his charisma and his leadership is more than the PT) or with Free cell the party needs a renewal of its leadership, its articulation with the social movements and its image. Politics requires the ability to build majorities and the loss of this ability was demonstrated during the elections, when the Brazilians preferred to launch the play in the air with Bolsonaro in order to keep the Workers Party at the polls. safe from power.

Those who preferred to know it badly before the very poorly known begin slowly to consider the new government with disapproval. However, according to Datafolha One hundred days after its beginning, 59% of Brazilians still consider that Bolsonaro will exercise an optimal or good government. But in a hundred days, two ministers were expelled, another is in sight (tourism) and the economy has come to express that without the support of Bolsonaro to the pension reform, the office would leave without problem. The grotesque style will undoubtedly continue, as will the important internal conflicts. Given this scenario, the optimism of these 59% also seems to preserve a certain expression of desire. The most traditional political clbad, the one that Bolsonaro attacks and calls "the old politics", will wait for the moment, as they say in Brazil, to make a comeback. For his part, Bolsonaro seems today less president of the Republic than paratrooper Brasilia.