Panic in the face of the crisis soothes people's minds – 28/04/2019

Faith moves mountains and panic soothes questions. The scanty weather of the past week has mixed a political race with polls now raging as premature – to imagine a poll eight months earlier – with the brake on a return on investment – reinvestment – Argentine newspapers that expire, but are not not renewed, it is of use and style in this one and in other bikes.

This climate generated an unusual peace for the exasperation of the campaign, which replies the shock of 2015 between Cambiemos – the leader of the non-Peronist vote – and the Peronist front. The tranquility will be prolonged in this short week, carved by a strike that the opposition wants more than calm, not to feed more the party in power, which wins the vote every time it is at the head of the public disorder and May Day. Test this sweetness that contrasts with the anguish of any campaign, the patience of deputies during a marathon session Wednesday which, according to Emilio Monzó, chairman of this instance, was the quietest since his arrival at the function in 2015. The political wing that Monzó represents – the agreement to expand the basis of Change to the future – also celebrated the unusual defense of the government presented by the opponent Miguel Pichetto on Thursday during of the seminar of lawyers organized at the Columbia University. In front of a forum that was waiting with a little clarity on the confusion caused by the opinion leaders of the past and the future, he declared that Cristina would not win the elections, that Macri would be the candidate of the ruling party and that if the federal peronism that he represents wins the election, he will respect all financial commitments to the IMF and the creditors.

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The dream of the extended base is renewed

With these signals, he becomes again the best friend of the government, for which he makes a changa that the small table of Olivos has rejected since the elections of 2017: widening the electoral base. Crisis it seems to give oxygen to this sector, fueled by this perception of the sofa Macri transmits when he says that the markets doubt that the Argentineans want to go back in the past. It is an elegant way of recognizing that his reelection is in danger and that what must be done must be done, that is to say, preserve governability at all costs. Even though it was hard to break the endogamy that had won the little table after the electoral triumph of 2017. It seemed to advance a promotion and end up being a slip, something similar to what happened in Cristina in 2011; gained 54% a new term, but after a month he already had a stock, after four months he nationalized Repsol's shares in YPF, in 2013 he lost the legislative shares and in 2015 the power. This is the capitulation he thought he had escaped by not giving Macri the presidential attributes, as if it were personal matters. In the political philosophy that is called the patrimonial concept of the state, the state is me. A public service is not a service, but an individual property used and abused. A premodern idea on which you can build very little.

Pichetto, the essential friend

Pichetto repeated it in front of other interlocutors that he cultivated during his trip to the east coast of the United States, where the campaign's theater of operations was moved. He explained the same to the investment funds and students of Yale University. In Colombia, he was surrounded by official supporters such as Jose Torello and Fabian Rodríguez Simón, as well as professionals like Guillermo Lipera and Máximo Fonrouge. The first are presidential advisers; the latter are a kind of para-civil servants or interns without dignities rented, but who move in the corridors as if they had been pursued for life. This allowed his words were hardly known, he received a barrage of The government calls, thanking him for a changa whose value they understood. Pichetto ran for New York with his advisers Jorge Franco and Guillermo Michel, and incurred unexpected sanctions for all, such as the disqualification of Sergio Mbada and Juan Manuel Urtubey, for stating that "the dead do not pay". It is this sentence that Néstor Kirchner had the habit of pre-dating the 2003 legacy breach and that the marriage was extended by 12 years. "These guys do not understand anything," he slid before cross-examination.

Even winner, Macri is in trouble

The value of Pichetto's gesture responds to a diagnosis that no one admits on the record, which says that for Macri It is not so bad to lose that to win in the state of weakness and isolation that ends your government. In 2015, the bourgeoisie of the provinces that decided the elections voted on the principle that, if Scioli won, the chaos would settle down and if Macri won, the joy would come. In 2019, the superficial perception of this electorate is that chaos can come regardless of the winner. Cristina has already warned in two speeches in the Senate that "this debt can not be paid", that investors and pbaders of other ranks inferior, but auxiliary to the understanding of the facts, translate by the word "default". Winner or loser, the harbadment in the program of this Macri mandate will be fatal to a president who, if he wins, will not be re-elected and locked in what Carrio calls "endogamy" of the Pro. If Cristina wins, one can think of what will happen with a Peronism whose main candidate predicts a default, but who will also inherit the budget surplus of almost all the provinces and the nation's main zero deficit. ? This badtail is a paradise for populism. From there, one understands the very great value of Pichetto's contribution to the enlargement of the ruling party's base, to a bank that opens the federal Peronism, which wants to provide what the market and society fallacious and incredulous ask the government: that he can not give To isolate poisoned speculations, Pichetto was away from the Argentine delegation who attended this seminar and resigned from the invitation made by the l & # 39; organizer Lipera. He even rejected an invitation from the State Department to avoid the bad picture. He received delegates from the parallel government of Juan Guaidó in Venezuela, Alejandro Grisanti and Julio Borges. An anti-Christian toast, to mark differences with the former president who was in Cuba, favorite destination of Ernesto Maduro's travels. The occupation of the Argentineans between New York, Boston and Washington is currently continuing. Investors and funds have made a career for 57 St, the iconic street they are in, to get to the talks Pichetto is giving to ten entrepreneurs, who do not believe what the international press sayswhat they know is written in Buenos Aires, with prejudices as light as the premature investigations on which they are based. The brigade has increased this weekend with the arrival of deputies Luciano Laspina (President of Budget and Finance), Marco Lavagna, Santiago Bausili and Federico Pinedo. They will take the opportunity to exhaust the patience of the curious, who currently number in the hundreds, to participate in the strategic forum between Argentina and the United States organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank chaired by the contractor. Marcos Bulgheroni. They will also participate in the launch of the Argentine caucus on Capitol Hill, much like the parliamentary friendship groups. With unemployment and vacations, it is a week of ideas to exploit on the external front.

"What has been lost in time does not seek it in space"

When the tension reaches certain limits, the imagination of the protagonists is triggered. Are you still convinced that Macri and his political table do not open the government proposed by the Frigerio-Monzó wing? Is it too late to imagine an agreement with rational, but roofless, peronism, such as that of Urtubey or Pichetto, which liquefies Cristina 's strength today? Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, another operator of TONY (New York Opera) recited the official rap at Susan Segal's Monday breakfast at the Americas Council: the confrontation only takes place with Cristina, the others are stuck, and we're going to win because the 60% who do not vote for Cristina hate her and lose her. They ask him what is the evidence of this, and he responds that the polls of today are not valid and that there is a conviction there, and that if he is questioned, he is obliged to tell the truth. Those who listen write and they wonder if the government makes an accurate diagnosis of the situation, a condition for finding a way out of this trustworthy crisis. Eyes on the fact that the debate over the diagnosis is testing the firmness of the Cabinet, where it was feared Thursday to put the resignation on the table. It may be too late, because the manual says that there is no need to move a room in full crisis. The Israeli thinker Amos Oz has devoted a delightful phrase that applies to attempts to amend something difficult: "What has been lost in time, do not look for it in space". Pablo Gerchunoff used it in his speech to the Senate, when he was awarded an award for his career. He describes something that usually happens in politics, an office for which he does not study and whose exercise it's a practice learning, often with no possibility to go back.