Partial recovery of soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange

After closing last week with losses in excess of 3.1%, soybeans began the commercial sector with a slight rebound in the Chicago Stock Exchange, due to the concern of the operators vis-à-vis the US market. the state of the crops, but also the firmness of the oil prices.

At the time of wheel adjustment, the tables reflected increases of $ 1.11 in August and September soybean contracts, which had values ​​of $ 322.98 and $ 325.27 per tonne.

After the closure of operations, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its badessment of the proportion of soybeans in good / excellent condition from 54% to 53%. far from 71% in force a year ago. New official data was also below the 55% expected by operators.

This divergence of criteria between the USDA and the market, in the midst of current uncertainty over the area that will eventually be covered with oilseeds, could help prolong the rise in oilseed prices. in the morning wheel. It should be added that the agency said today that the delayed implementation of soya has increased by more than 96% of the area and that 10% of the plants have entered the flowering phase. .

About corn, which recorded a 3.3% improvement in its prices last week, ended today at a slight rise. Indeed, cereal positions for September and December were $ 0.29 and $ 0.59 after closing with adjustments of $ 173.02 and $ 174.70 per tonne.

In contrast to what was observed for soybeans, after the market closed, the USDA raised from 56% to 57% the value of US corn in good condition. This figure, which corresponded to the expectations of the operators, was lower than the 75% in force last year. The body added that 8% of the plants are already in the pollination phase.

Wheat, pressed by advances in harvests in the northern hemisphere, has been cited today as declining in the US market. At the close of business, the September grain positions in Chicago and Kansas lost 1.47 USD and 1.65 USD, with adjustments of 187.76 and 16.95 USD per tonne, respectively.

In its weekly report, the USDA studied the advance of the winter wheat harvest in the United States on more than 47% of eligible area. Although the works are behind 61% in the same period of the previous year, the new data exceeded the 45% forecast by the operators. In addition, the organization raised from 63 to 64% its badessment of the proportion of plants in good / excellent condition.

Preventing a decline in the wheat crop in Russia

The declines observed today in the US market have been mitigated by the reductions that the two leading Russian consultants made on their estimates of the wheat crop in Russia, the world's largest exporter of fine grains. Compared to last month, SovEcon and IKAR have adjusted their forecasts from 82.20 to 76.60 and from 79.30 to 78.50 million tonnes, respectively. These cuts are the consequence of the dry and hot weather that has affected crops since the beginning of last June.

But the most relevant – and striking – fact is that SovEcon has reduced its estimate of wheat exports in Russia by 17.3% from 37.60 to 33 million tonnes for the 2019/2020 economic cycle, which began It's worth remembering that in its latest monthly report, the USDA had projected Russia's harvest and external sales at 78 and 37 million tonnes, respectively.