Partial relief from a rise in gas that will have a floor of 30% – 11/03/2019

The "carryover" of 20% on natural gas bills in winter reveals that the government can not yet announce what will be the percentage increase from April to September. Neither do we know what will happen to ballots between October and November.

Neither in the companies nor in the regulatory body (Enargas) nor in the government can they confirm how the technical bonus will be implemented.

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Secretary Gustavo Lopetegui said the gas increase would be 30% or less. Rates will be determined according to the average price of the dollar compared to the weight of the first half of March. The government thought this figure would be around $ 39.50. Businesses they estimate it closer to $ 42, for what they see from the last days of exchange.

The rising dollar, according to the private sector, removes the possibility of a 30% increase and brings it closer to the an area that runs 35%.

The government has already shown that it could change its definitions of tariff policy, according to the expressions of different officials.

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The former energy secretary – Javier Iguacel – announced the day before, his resignation by the end of December, a single increase of 35% in 2019. Lopetegui, who now occupies the same position, opposed his predecessor. He indicated that the increase would be 30% or less, but admitted that in December there might be another correction. Lopetegui is currently participating in a US tour with Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne, and they seem to be listening. Iguacel's relationship with Dujovne was more confrontational.

Just like last year – when Elisa Carrió and radicalism complained about tariffs – the executive responded with refinancing. The difference is due to interest. In 2018, they ran on behalf of users. Customers could refinance, but they had to pay for this opportunity. In 2019, punitive powers will be resolved by the executive, meaning that users can pay less without fail.

Both in the Iguacel and Lopetegui versions, winter bills would rise, but after the colder users would not have to deal with a higher ticket.

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Although the implementation is pending, the idea of ​​deferring 20% ​​between April and September and then billing it between December 2019 and March 2020 leaves open what will happen between October and November of this year. For these months, a new rate should be in effect, but that will not happen. The question is whether gas distributors will be able to charge those months that will be deferred in April.

Lopetegui said that the revision of the tariff (which should be done in October for the concession contract) will be postponed until December. something the executive has already done in the 2017 parliamentary elections, as a means of alleviating discontent for this type of measures.

By mid-2018, the executive had raised the idea of ​​a "flat rate" winter rate, so that the notes are similar throughout the year. For example: instead of paying more than $ 1,000 per cold month and $ 200 per spring-summer, a figure would be paid between these two hypothetical extremes during the two months. Later, this idea was rejected by the government. Now, with the 20% that can be deferred, there will be no "equal" tickets throughout the year, but they will be higher in summer (December-March) than expected due of a lower consumption. It's a framework that is launched after the elections.