Pedro Castillo starts as favorite for the poll …

From Lima

Left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo takes the lead in the first ballot in the second round of the presidential election, to be held on June 6. The rural teacher of Andean origin is eleven points ahead of Keiko Fujimori, who is competing for the third consecutive time in this instance. In the 2011 and 2016 elections, Keiko fell behind in the polls for the second round, but with less difference, and ended up losing in both. According to an Ipsos poll, Castillo gets 42 percent, while Keiko gets 31 percent. 16 percent say they will not support either and 11 percent say they have not yet decided to vote.

Although Castillo won the first round with 19%, with Keiko second at just 13.3%, early speculation gave the daughter of jailed ex-dictator Alberto Fujimori a certain advantage for this second round as the sum of the different right-wing groups, in a very fragmented election, they outnumber the votes of left-wing groups. But this first poll puts an end to the right wing’s illusion that it had an advantage.

In dialogue with PageI12, the social psychologist and professor at the University of Lima, Hernán Chaparro, points out that we must not add the votes of the candidates on the right on the one hand and those on the left on the other hand to project a result for this second round .

“For a long time in Peru the vote was neither ideological nor programmatic, it is a vote which has more to do with the affinities of identity and proximity with the candidates”, explains Chaparro. “Castillo,” he adds, “comes from popular sectors, has a background and is a teacher, which makes him a leader. He made an identification with the popular sectors. In these elections there is a dispute between the change and the continuity of the neoliberal economic model, but in Peru this must be read in a way not only between the left and the right, but also in racial, ethnic and political terms. recognition ”.

This first poll reflects the territorial, social and ethnic divisions in a country deeply divided at the time the vote was cast. While Keiko wins comfortably in Lima, with 43% against 26% of his rival, inside the country the figures are reversed and Castillo has a large advantage, with 51% against 24% of candidate Fujimori. Lima represents a third of the electorate. The greatest support for rural teachers occurs in the Andean areas, the poorest and most marginalized in a country with high inequalities. In the central and southern Andes, the candidate of the popular Andean sectors reached respectively 68 and 58%, against 22 and 17% for Keiko. Visualization of data by socio-economic level, candidate Fujimori wins in middle and upper strata, while Castillo wins in popular sectors and lower middle class. Keiko scores best in the high-income sector, hitting 52%, while Castillo lags far behind at 17%. At the other extreme, in the poorest sector, Castillo achieves its best result, with 56%, against 24% for candidate Fujimori.

Ipsos poll also shows strong rejection of Keiko, sued for money laundering, and Fujimori, who alienates the political heir to former dictator Fujimori, sentenced to 25 years in prison for crimes against humanity and corruption, from voters who do not identify with Castillo, but are unwilling to support Fujimori’s return to power, which brings a heavy burden of authoritarianism and corruption. 55% say they would not vote for Keiko in any way. In Castillo’s case, this anti-vote is lower, 33%, despite the attacks he has received which present him as a dangerous radical and a sympathizer of the political backwardness of the defeated Maoist armed group Sendero Luminoso, which started a war. . the eighties and nineties, an alleged closeness that Castillo indignantly rejected.

“I receive the results of this survey with confidence. This campaign is going to be difficult. The challenge is to reduce anti-voting. And to send the message that in this election we are going to vote between a free market and Marxism ”, was Keiko’s first reaction to this poll which put her at a disadvantage. Castillo has not made any comment to the press.

Pedro Castillo He spent the first week after his first round victory in Cajamarca, the Andean region where he was born, lives on his farm and works as a rural schoolteacher. He visited some cities in the region and led public demonstrations in which he ratified his speech on changing the neoliberal economic model and proposed the second round as a contest between rich and poor.

He traveled to Lima last Sunday to meet with the leaders of his party, Free Peru, to plan the second round campaign. On Monday, he spent most of the day in his local party, where he continued his meetings with his party leaders and also had meetings with leaders of social organizations. He will continue his meetings with organizations and unions. It also provides for a meeting with the business sectors.

The leaders of Peru Libre and the left-wing coalition Together for Peru, which launched the candidacy of Verónika Mendoza, sixth with 7.8%, are coordinating for a meeting to reach an agreement. Mendoza expressed doubts about some of Castillo’s proposals and his open criticism of others, such as Peru’s candidate Libre’s opposition to policies with a gender perspective, marriage equality and abortion, but has highlighted their coincidences in changing the neoliberal model and the Constitution. inherited from the Fujimori dictatorship. Mendoza was clear that there was no option to approach candidate Fujimori. “With Fujimori, we are not going around,” he said.

On the other hand, Keiko modulates her voice to speak of openness and agreement, but she, her spokespersons and her allies seek to polarize the country between so-called communists and anti-communists and strengthen their engagement in a campaign of fear. against their rival, who they accuse, among other things, of being violent and of spreading hatred and of wanting to divide the country by his messages denouncing inequalities. The candidate of the party which organized a coup and which governed like a dictatorship, accuses Castillo of being a danger to democracy.

“I don’t think Keiko’s Communist fear campaign is working for Keiko. It is a mistake to insist on this. Trying to discredit Castillo by saying that he is a communist doesn’t work because in his case there is a much stronger ethnic and popular identification, ”says Chaparro.

The analyst underlines that the approval given by the writer Mario Vargas Llosa to Keiko “will have no electoral impact”. He considers it “difficult” to reverse Castillo’s advantage. “It is true that in Peru, seven weeks, what remains for the election is a century, but I see that it is difficult for this to be reversed. Keiko doesn’t have great political skills, she has serious limitations. Her biggest problem is herself, your lack of credibility. It seems complicated to solve this problem ”.