Pedro Castillo would win with a difference of more than …

The presidential candidate Pedro Castillo (Peru Free), would win the elections by a difference of more than 40,000 votes compared to the candidate of the Fuerza Popular, Keiko Fujimori, according to the projection of the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG). Some 25 million Peruvians were called to the polls last Sunday to define the ballot between Castillo and Fujimori. Still under surveillance, the count is led by the candidate of Peru Libre Pedro Castillo.

From CELAG, an institution dedicated to the analysis of political, economic and social phenomena in Latin America, they prepared a projection based on the analysis of the reports that remain to be processed. “Of all that remains, our final estimate is that Castillo would have an advantage over Keiko by 40,500 votes,” he said. Alfredo Serrano Mancilla on the projection in which Castillo would end with 8,870,045 votes and Fujimori with 8,830,004, taking into account that there are still 700,000 valid votes to be processed.

Methodology

“We are projecting the behavior they have had so far in each location. We have assumed the same turnout levels, valid vote levels, blank vote levels, Castillo voting intention and Fujimori voting intention,” explains Serrano. Task.

Keiko Fujimori, for his third consecutive attempt to accede to the presidency, places his hopes in the vote from abroad where the candidate of the Fuerza Popular retains an advantage, in Argentina, for example, the Peruvian community elected Fujimori who collected 57 , 3% of the vote against 42.7% for Castillo. Of the total votes from abroad, 35.8% of the minutes have not yet been examined. About a million Peruvians have been allowed to vote abroad, although with the advancement of the count absenteeism has exceeded 60%.

The origin of the candidates’ vote

“There is still the foreigner who is favorable to Keiko and among the contested acts, a significant percentage is in Lima and who mainly favors Keiko”, explains Serrano Mancilla, who in turn underlines the importance of the votes of interior and rural areas where Castillo is the favorite, exceeding 80 percent of the vote in some areas. “The electoral behavior in rural areas is absolutely favorable for Castillo, throughout the north and south of the country”, he clarified.

“However, from the rest of the country – beyond Lima and abroad – there is still a lot to deal with and this is favorable to Castillo”, explains the director of CELAG. The teacher on the left is largely prevalent in the Andean and rural areas. Castillo surpassed 80% in Puno, Huancavelica, Cusco, Apurímac and Ayacucho, while Fujimori claimed victory in Lima and other areas of the Peruvian coast.

Rural areas

In the department of Ayacucho, 9.9% of cases still need to be processed, Huancavelica 7.4 percent, in Cuzco 4.3 percent, in Junin 1.6 percent in Amazons 0.8 percent. It is in these regions that Castillo has a large majority compared to Fujimori. While in the departments of Mother of God 0.7 percent must be treated and Loreto 8.7%, and in both departments the majority is held by the candidate Fuerza Popular.

“It is true that the share of votes from abroad and contested parties in Lima is missing in favor of Keiko, but it is also true that votes in rural areas must be dealt with,” said the director of the CELAG. “When the outside and Lima favorable to Fujimori and everything else favorable to Castillo are put into equation,the resulting final balance is 40,000 votes in favor of Castillo. “