Plan Dollar and Alberto Fernández

Cristina Kirchner refers to it. The last time was the return of his last trip to Cuba. When the two members of the formula met at their home in Recoleta, the former president insisted that she wanted Roberto Lavagna to be the minister of the economy of the next government. Alberto Fernández.

CFK thinks that Lavagna is the economist appointed to bring Argentina out of the crisis. Not only because of his experience after the 2002 explosion – a point that the markets value especially in times of crisis – but also because he thinks that the country needs to find the former minister's industrial ideas current presidential candidate. .

Alberto F. agrees with the diagnosis of his partner. But from their nearest core, they believe they expect a less distant attitude from the economist about this possibility. The candidate, on several occasions, has explicitly wished that Lavagna be his Minister of the Economy.

When the time came, that is to say during the transition, Cristina herself could investigate Lavagna and thus give her guarantees of political coexistence.

"Alberto does not want to exhaust the relationship because he's confident that Lavagna will say yes after Sunday 27," he said. Professional a former Kirchner official diligently working on the candidate.

In fact, it was recognized that Fernández was very laudatory of Lavagna during the first debate between the candidates. The former minister himself acknowledged: "I appreciate this recognition," he said publicly in recent hours.

The possibility that Lavagna would be the future Minister of Economy was even mentioned by the businessmen who saw him during the recent visit to the IDEA conference. They did not win a "yes". But not a "no" as he is responsible for getting rid in public (because it could not be otherwise to be a presidential candidate), according to the director of a multinational.

"I am available to join a dialogue table, I put my team to that effect, and if it gives me the chance, I will give my opinion," says Lavagna. A commitment phrase of those who know that the next direction will take a critical moment in the economy.

During the last part of the campaign, the candidate for the Federal Consensus was also very close to Fernández, at least among the discursive ones. He focused on the last stretch by severely criticizing the official management and directed his darts exclusively towards Mauricio Macri.

Lavagna conditions

Alleged to the ex-minister, who shares the campaign with him, they say that one of the keys to finally accepting an invitation will be Lavagna's own diagnosis of the economic situation.

We know that the current crisis is unresolved and that it will take a lot of expertise and political support to move it forward. In the vicinity of Lavagna, they indicate that the former minister would not be ready to assume when he thought that the worst of the crisis had not yet happened and that there could be a risk of inflation.

In other words: Will Lavagna face the personal sacrifice of a new restructuring of the public debt? And not only that: the most relevant is perhaps the risks that the economist is willing to assume.

In Kirchnerism, some people think that the role that Lavagna can assume is not that of substitute minister, but that of consigliere Informally, a role like the one that Daniel Scioli had imagined for Miguel Bein in case of victory in 2015: a reference that gave the big guidelines but did not necessarily participate in the daily management.

The truth is that for Lavagna to accept his post, he must receive full political support and a wide range of actions, far from the current pattern of atomization of economic areas promoted by macroism and closer to the traditional figure of "super Minister ". It was only then that he would consider an easy way out of a situation for which he had already made possible a dark diagnosis.

Without going further, the economist Matías Tombolini – candidate for the presidency of the government in the city for the consensus – believes that inflation to 2020 will have "three figures". In other words, it will be over 100%, among other things, because it provides for a violent issue of pesos to board the Leliq balloon.

The consensus among professional economists is beginning to be that the economy of the "twenty-twenty" will be far from developing. Even, the Monetary Fund has already turned its expansion forecast of 1.1% to forecast a decline of 1.3%.

The idea that next year will be very laborious – again – and that unresolved variables may go against the simplified idea that Lavagna or another figure in the world of economists can "take control" in the first year of Alberto F. President

The minister who assumes December 10 will have two urgent challenges to resolve: the debt and the Leliq ball. Two real bombs. A cable that cuts badly and the crisis will deepen.

The debt even contains renegotiation with the Monetary Fund. A chapter that will impose political coordination between Casa Rosada and the technical vision of economists.

Some advisers of Alberto F. suggest that the impetus with the IMF will be the most difficult and the most transcendent. They argue that, on the other hand, bargaining with private creditors would be more leveled. Because? Basically, the near-zero interest rate governs the global financial scenario.

It will also be very important to negotiate with the banks that have accumulated Leliq on their balance sheets and which are counterparted with term deposits of Argentine savings.

"Here, it is not a matter of quantifying the figures in the Ministry of Economy and thinking that this will only solve the crisis." Among other things, the crisis of 2001 showed that the miwmqw are solved with precise measures, no matter how painful they are, at which point Cavallo did not convince anyone of his project, because everyone had diagnosed that convertibility was exhausted ", analyzes an economist who closely analyzes the close economist candidate Fernandez, and hopes to have some responsibility in the future. administration

Those who think like this economist are of the same opinion as Cristina Kirchner: to revive the economy, one needs technical skills, experience and a thorough knowledge of politics. "Lavagna has all this, but lacks equipment," suggests another economist, an official of Cristina's second government.

The attentive IMF

In the week leading up to the elections, Matías Kulfas has emerged as the main spokesman of the Frente de Todos for economic matters. "There is no choice but to renegotiate the debt with the Monetary Fund because we are in partial default," the economist said in recent hours.

At the organization's annual meeting, the technical line made it clear to Washington that the future revision would be "difficult", in accordance with what in Buenos Aires highlights the ambassador of the United States. organism, Trevor Alleyne.

For this reason, Alberto F.'s various advisers closely follow the latest movements within the Fund. He is already vox puepuli that an internal offer was triggered by the performance of the institution in the Argentine crisis.

More specifically, we observe with caution whether Alejandro Werner, the Argento-Mexican, director of the Department of the Western Hemisphere of the Monetary Fund. At the IMF, there is a current among technicians who, for Werner, assumes much of the responsibility for the unstoppable deterioration of Argentina.

In the Fernández team, they do not rule out that the arrival of Kristalina Giorgieva in Washington also involves the removal of Werner. Something that might bother some members of Alberto F.'s environment.

"We prefer to discuss with someone who knows how the Argentine economy works, even though we have differences and we also hold him accountable for the crisis." But the worst would be someone else's. who knows nothing about us, who comes from Europe or from Europe, occupies a key position, the United States ", they slip.

To get to work completely since the beginning of the transition, Fernández wants to define if, finally, Lavagna accepts and takes again the economy in crisis, again.

There will also be definitions for the Central Bank. For this key position, Miguel Angel Pesce, former vice president of the entity during the K years, takes the lead. The current head of the Tierra del Fuego Bank approached the Kirchner administration for its political ties with the former chief of staff and presidential candidate. Nothing less.

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