Political exit in Venezuela is deflated – 13/04/2019



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Maduro denounces that a military intervention "of the empire" is being prepared in Venezuela. The president in charge Juan Guaidó retrieved him today at Clarin in the first face-to-face dialogue that grants: "Maduro is the only one to have put the army's intervention on the table when he goes to talk to Bashar Al Assad and threatens to turn the country into another Syria." The commander of Southern Command admits that US troops are "ready". And he set a deadline: before the end of the year.

The military question, external or internal, is part of the usual landscape of the huge Venezuelan crisis. In a recent report, Mauricio Macri said that there would be no progress in the elimination of Maduro if there was no "fracture" of the armed forces, true foundation of the support of the Bolivarian leader.

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An obvious conclusion that no one denies, is that the the intense political pressure on the Chavez regime is losing momentum and Maduro, immersed in the swamp of a disordered economy and unbridled corruption, maintained until now military support, with the help of allies like Cuba.

Juan Manuel Santos, in one of his last acts as president of Colombia, reportedly told Macri that Maduro's hours were "counted" because there would be an imminent military uprising. A few days later, all alleged conspirators were arrested. All of them attributed the success of the Cuban intelligence service, which works closely with President Chavez, particularly in the military field. This is an explicit reality, as is the presence of Russian military advisers in Venezuela.

Members of the Bolivarian militia participate in the commemoration of the 17th anniversary of the failed coup d'état against the late President Hugo Chavez and the tenth anniversary of the Bolivarian militia, led Saturday by Maduro in Caracas. (EFE)

Members of the Bolivarian militia participate in the commemoration of the 17th anniversary of the failed coup d'état against the late President Hugo Chavez and the tenth anniversary of the Bolivarian militia, led Saturday by Maduro in Caracas. (EFE)

The drift of the Venezuelan situation is, for the region, a problem more and more complicated because of the internationalization of the crisis and the tacit admission that the reaction against Maduro has cornered the regime but that it has managed not only to maintain itself, but to sterilize its efforts. The persistence of Chavezism becomes a political defeat for all countries that have supported him in Guaidó because they have not found the appropriate way to resolve the crisis.

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Trump's delegate for the Venezuelan question, Elliot Abrams, a falcon among hawks, just held a series of consultations in Madrid that included a dialogue with former president Felipe Gonzalez, a sharp critic of the "tyranny" of Maduro. Abrams opened the possibility of creating a kind of cord blood for the current occupant of the Miraflores Palace: to leave power and leave the country. They must also ensure that the interests of Russia and China are not changed. There is another serious problem: emigration becomes an explosive problem. It is estimated that Colombia receives 5,000 a day and this situation creates a situation of undisguised tension. That is why the tension between Colombia and Venezuela is one of the points on which badysts believe it can produce a military escalation, in addition to the presence on Venezuelan territory of the Colombian guerrillas who have not established peace.

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