Political transformation in Ecuador | Profile

Against all expectations, Guillermo Lasso won the second electoral round and became the new president of Ecuador. Since the start of these elections, analysts believed that what was under discussion was the return of Rafael Correa, a leader who personally won the elections of 2006, 2009, 2013, and through a nominated candidate, those of 2017. Yes, this time Andres Arauz won, it would be his fifth consecutive victory.

Correa was the most prepared and most important leader of those who led “21st century socialism” on the continent and also the president who remained in Ecuador continuously for the longest time.

In 2017, the correista candidate was preparing to devote himself to a single round when he obtained 39.4% of the votes, a few tenths of the decisive 40%. Guillermo Lasso obtained 28%, his current Christian-social allies 16%. Together they would have won the presidency with 44%.

The first cycle of 2021 brought a deep surprise that most analysts did not register. The lasso dropped to 19% and Andrés Arauz got 31%. Although his triumph was overwhelming, he got 8% less than his predecessor. The majority of voters came from the correismo-anti correismo logic, supported different options or simply did not want to vote.

The elites, obsessively preoccupied with Correa and the correistas, did not register the problem. A good number of businessmen and politicians who backed Lasso in the first round were convinced that there was no way he would win in the second round. They formed two groups: those who wanted Yaku Perez to step down so that Yaku Perez, who had finished third by 30,000 votes, advance to the second round, and others, more fearful, who sponsored a Bolivian coup that would have been disastrous for democracy. .

The first polls confirmed this sentiment: Arauz was 20% above Guillermo. The surprise when he gained 5%, as we predicted in this column, was crucial. Within weeks, 25% of voters had changed their preferences, a unique fact in the history of the electoral world.

The author. In Latin America, consultants and market specialists have appeared in recent years who boast of having “erected” presidents and claim to be the author of triumphs. They lie. The only person responsible for the success or failure of the elections is the candidate. Success is impossible if the leader lacks determination, the ability to interpret the situation and to organize and lead the team that supports him. In this critical situation, it was difficult for someone to have these abilities.

Guillermo reacted quickly after the first round disaster. Instead of giving up, he redoubled his efforts, took a radical turn in the campaign, trying to win the vote of this majority who were looking for something new. He starred in a young, disruptive and inclusive campaign full of humor, which in itself was a break from the politics of the past.

The success of a campaign depends on the candidate and after a professional campaign

The leader’s youth isn’t just tied to his age: Bernie Sanders was the most innovative candidate in the North American election in recent years, Lasso’s campaign was more modern and fresh than Arauz’s.

The same person can be a bad candidate if they have a bad strategy, or a successful candidate if they know how to reformulate their campaign. In the second round, Ecuadorians suddenly met a candidate who had empathy for voters of all kinds, who listened to locals, Afro-Ecuadorians, peasants, urban youth, opened up to the community GLBH, to theses environmentalists, proposed pioneering thesis clean of the progressive candidates of the world.

In a country divided for years by hatred and persecution, he has said over and over again that he is not going to persecute anyone, that he intends to build a country based on the meeting of all Ecuadorians.

What is interesting is that this style of campaigning responded to the candidate’s real way of being, which had been hidden for over a decade during which he always seemed a cold candidate, who spoke of the economy. , a conservative banker with solemn attitudes. , sporadically interrupted with expressions that seemed absurd.

Guillermo is actually a kind and straightforward person, with strong family ties and a good sense of humor. He likes to dress in bright colors, which were hidden behind his “statesman” mask. He is a worthy human being, a rare thing in an age when politics is full of lunatics. We never have more fun in a campaign than in this one.

His team was excellent. He had a good campaign manager who could deliver what was resolved at the strategic table, an advertising team to compete with the best on the continent, groups of artists who produced contagious music, teams who skillfully managed the networks. social, efficient environment.

The conflicting issue of the participation of the candidate’s relatives in the campaign played in favor in this case. His wife, María de Lourdes, and their children contributed to the success, working actively and quietly, bringing warmth to the countryside.

Some violent indigenous leaders have said that Ecuador needs an indigenous president so that the Métis people learn what they can do to them. Indigenous peoples represent 7.2% of the population. Later, surely in good faith, they supported Arauz. Obviously, they subtracted votes. Lasso swept through the provinces with the greatest indigenous presence. Everyone wants to live better, he can overcome hatred and pettiness.

Andrés Arauz. Arauz was a new face in politics. Compared to Lasso’s, his campaign was conservative, within the parameters of the old politics.

He had the same problem as Ecuador’s mayoral candidates in 2014 when Rafael Correa, at the height of his popularity, supported them so much that he ended up sinking almost all of them. It was worse in this case. Usually people vote for presidents who will be presidents, not for someone else’s aides.

The weather has changed. The ideological discourse has lost its validity. Correa congratulated the Venezuelan dictatorship on its victory in the plebiscite, as hundreds of thousands of poor Venezuelans in Ecuador fled their country because of hunger. At city traffic lights, families of desperate Venezuelans demand a coin because they literally have nothing to eat. Any theory that tries to explain that the poorest quarter of Venezuelans who have had to flee a country where everything is wrong is happy does not serve to alleviate the pain of solidarity we all feel when we see them on the streets.

What hurt Arauz most was the memory of the persecution, ridicule, and general violence that characterized the Correa government. The former president appeared in the countryside with lists of people and institutions he was going to persecute; he insulted, slandered and reminded voters of the worst aspects of his government. This prevented Arauz from growing up and differentiating himself by offering anything other than returning to a violent past.

The strategy. Arauz’s campaign lacked strategy. Sometimes he looked like a candidate who wanted to sympathize with the people, sometimes he attacked fiercely with political arguments that had expired from being so repeated.

In contrast, Guillermo’s campaign had a definite strategy, thought out by the eyes of the people. The candidate put his sector in order, made not only the members of his campaign work with discipline, but all the leaders who supported him, who put their egos aside and did the right thing. to achieve victory.

Napolitan said the success of the campaign depended first and foremost on the candidate and then on a strategy that was thought out by professionals. Strategy is a defined, research-based plan that points out a path through which everything done and not done in the campaign must go.

This is the second time that a strategy based on the latest findings in behavioral science has been applied in Latin America. Voters do not want to be the object of politics, but to actively participate in what is happening. With his campaign, Lasso drew tens of thousands of people who produced memes, ads, and other materials while having fun in service of a cause they felt was right. Anyone who has studied the texts and discussions of Alex Pentland, Malcolm Gladwell, Clay Shirky, Jeremy Heimans and Henry Timms will better understand the complexity of simplicity characteristic of the campaigns of the Third Industrial Revolution.

A new step. When the victory was confirmed, something important happened: Andres Arauz immediately recognized it and wished the president-elect success. Rafael Correa also sent a message expressing his desire for Lasso to succeed for the good of the country.

Unlike the Peruvian elections which took place on the same day, amid a whirlwind of disqualifications and slanders that sparked massive rejection from the population, it seems Ecuador is entering a new stage in its history.

Lasso will keep his promise not to sue anyone. It is certain that he will never call his opponents fools, nor take measures to comply with whims, nor persecute any city in the country, as happens with others on the mainland.

I hope to have openness to dialogue and also to integrate the correistas in the task of moving the country forward. Latin Americans are fed up with leaders who only seek to bow to whims and pursue their own interests by disqualifying others. Hopefully such a positive campaign will usher in a new stage of construction in the country and that it will spread to the region.

* Professor at GWU. Member of the Argentine political club.