Polls: those who raised and reduced the intention to vote after the STEP

Surveys do not define everything. The result of the PASO did not coincide much with what the polls had published – for example, the great difference obtained by Alberto Fernández and the high percentage of votes obtained by the candidate Gómez Centurión, to quote two examples – and it is possible that during these hours the consultants refine the methodology to prevent this from being repeated in the generals of October, because surveys always generate expectations.

After the new scenario after PASO, investigations that are beginning to spread – despite the fact that the government has managed to avoid a new explosion of the dollar – also ratify the advantage of Alberto Fernández over Mauricio Macri, to the point of giving him the first round winner However, another fact to emphasize is that the votes go in the direction of the two great candidates, Macri and Fernández, and in the opposite direction to the candidates without chances to reach the Casa Rosada, such as Espert, Gómez Centurión, Del Caño and Lavagna. . This is confirmed by three polls published Sunday by Clarin in which he badyzes the current scenario concerning voting intentions (in full screen):

The surveys were conducted by three companies: Clivajes Consultores, Projection and Intel Atlas. The first – out of which 1,267 people were interviewed – attributed 20,08 points in favor of Kirchnerism (Alberto Fernández), that of Projection (1,200 respondents), 17,2 points in favor of the Peronist and that of Atlas Intel ( 2 thousand cases in September), 9.7 points in favor of Fernández.

Candidates: STEP vs STEP surveys

Alberto Fernández, out of 47.6% obtained in PASO at 52.6% (Clivajes), 50.9% (projection) and 48.2% (Intel Atlas). This is a better performance in all three surveys compared to what was achieved in the primary.

Mauricio Macri, 32% of primary schools to 32.5% (Clivajes), 33.7% (projection) and 38.5% (Intel Atlas). Also with a better performance in the three polls regarding the votes obtained in the first, although this is insufficient to aspire to the second round.

Roberto Lavagna, from 8.22% to 9.36% (Clivajes), 6.1% (Projection) and 7.4% (Intel Atlas). That is to say, on the three surveys, only one performance improved.

Nicolás del Caño, from 2.86% to 2.9% (Clivajes), 2.3% (Projection) and 2% (Intel Atlas); that is, he has practically maintained the same level of voice.

José Gómez Centurión, respectively from 2.6% to 1.42%, 1.40% and 1.9%, while Espert, from 2.18% to 1.12%, 1.1% and 2% %, respectively. That is to say, the candidates most concerned with this "reorganization" of votes, according to polls, are Gómez Centurión and Espert.

On October 27, not only the next president is elected since December 10. Half of the Chamber of Deputies and one third of that of Senators will also be renewed. The presidential candidate who obtains more than 45% of the votes or at least 40% and a difference of more than ten points compared to the formula below will be the winner. If this does not happen, there will be a second round on November 24th, at which only the two most voted lists will participate.