Portugal approved Costa's heterodoxy to get out of the crisis

A television channel of the TVI channel gave the Socialist Party (PS) between 34.5% and 38.5% of the votes, ie 112 deputies, which would leave Costa only 4% of the absolute majority. The (conservative) Social Democrats lag behind with between 24.6 and 28.6% (68 to 78 deputies). At the same time, Bloco, one of its current partners, was third with 7.7 to 11.7% of the vote and between 20 and 26 deputies; and the other, the alliance of communists and ecologists, added between 6% and 8% and 10 to 14 deputies.

Portugal was one of the symbols of the international financial crisis of 2009 at the head of the acronym which grouped the European countries then considered at the limit of having to leave the euro zone: PIGS (this country, Italy, Greece and Spain, according to their names in English).

The situation became unsustainable in April 2011, when he had to address the IMF, which has formed with the European Union a loan of 78 000 million dollars accompanied by a budgetary adjustment. shocking.

Unsurprisingly, these policies have plunged the country into a "trap of austerity", in which each distortion of adjustment engendered a deepening of the recession and, against what was sought, an increase in budget torch. Thus, in 2014, when the financing plan expired, the budget hole remained unruly around 4.5% of GDP. At the same time, the public debt, whose increase triggered the crisis, remained above 130% of the product.

Like Argentina, Portugal also voted in October 2015, but the "change" involved a left turn. Outgoing Prime Minister, Social Democrat (Conservative) Pedro Passos Coelho, failed to form a majority in Parliament to continue the adjustment. The Socialist Party could then enthrone António Costa. This, instead of seeking support for the center right, is allied with the Bloco and the PC and has renegotiated the agreement with the IMF.

The new government has canceled some of the previous austerity measures, such as reducing pensions, and mitigated the social impact of the budget constraint by focusing on cutting infrastructure spending.

The person responsible for the implementation of the new orientation of the Ministry of Finance was Mário Centeno, who overturned the privatization of the national airline and transport, raised the minimum wage, withdrawn from retirement and wage cuts in the state, restored the reduction of the working week to 35 hours in the public sector , eliminated the lowest wages and finally got a big tax laundering.

The economy then accelerated its rebound. The weak growth of 0.9% and 1.5% achieved by the Conservatives in 2014 and 2015 resulted in 2.7% in 2016. With more robust growth, the budget deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP , which represents its lowest level in more than 40 years and exceeds even the expectations of the Fund.

Meanwhile, without Portugal being able to resort to the accelerated call for devaluation to become a member of the euro area, exports to the EU have rebounded by 10% and those directed out of the bloc , 20%. Much of the boom has been explained by the boom in tourism.

While, unemployment went from 11.8% in inheritance to 7.4%. And the most spectacular: the country has repaid the IMF loan early and has thus released its conditionalities.

The Portuguese model is closely watched by Argentine economists and presidential candidate Frente de Todos, Alberto Fernández, congratulated him for his recent visit to this country.

The Portuguese decided yesterday that Costa should continue, even if the road ahead is still arduous: the debt remains very high and the growth of growth, although it is a relief, is still far from a dream .