Post-race, they see inflation of 30% and minimal growth in 2018

Inflation at 30% for 2018, the dollar at $ 30 at the end of the year and a meager growth of 0.5% of GDP, are the variables that they manage on the market these days. This was demonstrated by the latest market expectations survey, released by the BCRA yesterday and that was done between Wednesday and Friday of last week, before the latest rise in the forex market put the US currency on the verge of 30. For the fourteenth time in a row, the badysts consulted corrected their inflation expectations upwards. Thus, according to the EMN, they are now waiting at an annual inflation rate of 3 points higher than what they had expected the previous month, and are positioning it at 30% for this year. The ceiling set by the IMF at the beginning of last month is 32%, the pact is in danger at this level.

In the coming twelve months, we expect a general price increase of 24.2%, above the target agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which places the Inflation in June 2019 to 21%. According to the people consulted, inflation will reach 20% next year, 3 points higher than the official target of 17%

At the same time, they see underlying inflation in excess of 28% from one year to the next, which implies a jump of three basis points from the survey from May. However, they maintain that they will resume the downward trend towards the end of the year, where they calculate it at around 1.8% per month.

"The expected core inflation shows that a good deal of the inflationary process is related to the dynamics of" While the Central Bank has conducted its inflation targeting monetary policy, the EMN's results marked the pulse, because it was there to measure the credibility that he had on the market. Overall, and in the midst of a high volatility in the foreign exchange market and after several changes in the BCRA's policy, the findings of this report, the first of the Caputo era as central banker, serve as a thermometer to calculate the impact of the measures chosen by the government

As in the measurement before

on this occasion the forecasts of 52 market participants participated, including 32 local consultants and centers research, 15 financial entities from Argentina and 5 badysts from abroad.

The market perceives that the Central Bank is not going to normalize its short-term interest rate policy and that the 7-day rate will continue to 40% during this month, a gradual reduction until reaching 33% in December .

Those consulted greatly reduced their growth forecasts for this year and the next. Thus, GDP growth has risen from 1.3% to 0.5% in 2018. It is expected that the effects of this year's devaluation and rate hikes will persist in 2019. For next year, investors have also corrected their downward projection and now calculate that the economy will grow by 1.6%.