Post STEP bricks. Uncertainty and opportunities in the sale of real estate

The volatility of
dollar, rate hikes, economic uncertainty and legal uncertainty discourage medium- and long-term business investment, such as bricks.
Developers and real estate They are going through the post-STEP moment in the same way as the other sectors: with
uncertaintyAnd the reactions are the most disparate. For example, last Monday, in a real estate recognized, received hundreds of calls from people wanting to lower the price of their property, people asking for the withdrawal of the floor of the sale, others wishing to increase the rental price and even people having changed sign. rent for sale. So and everything – says a broker – closed two operations.

But this last situation was not that of the majority. On the market, they recognize that many of the reserves agreed in the week leading up to the election have been amortized. In other words, investors and end-buyers have chosen the path of
wait and see.

For developers and builders, the situation is changing too. "Today, no one can tell you the value of a sandbag," admits a developer. Similar to what happens in other industries, there is no reference price.

However, according to Marcelo Di Mitrio, head of real estate of the same name, this new situation must be read in the context of what was happening on the market. "We started 2018 with a dollar to 20 dollars, then we recorded a 100% increase in the exchange rate on a market expressed in dollars.So, in the second part of the year and in 2019, the Activity was very bad, "he said. Give as an example the
The latest survey of the College of Notaries of the City of Buenos Aires that speaks of the thirteenth consecutive decline in operations and 50% less activity, at the levels of the exchange rate era. "In parallel, the average ticket has been corrected by 21%, which means we are getting smaller quantities and prices," he adds.

According to him, once past volatility – which makes it difficult to close operations – and that there is some political stability, the price of
second hand real estate It should continue to decline for the expected reactivation. Santiago Magnin, from the real estate company namesake, thinks in the same direction, but he moved immediately. "With devaluation, set who governs, or decrease closing prices or transactions and, if publication values ​​do not go down, transactions will continue to decline.There is an invariant number of trades done yes or yes: we are talking about 1500 and 2000 sales per month are historical minimums for the city of Buenos Aires, "he says.

Alejandra Covello, president of Covello Properties, identifies them as "sales of the civil register". That is, those specified by births, people who decide to live alone, marriages, divorces and deaths (estates). But even these sales are difficult in an unfavorable context, according to Covello, because the sellers have their collections. The broker agrees that prices would also drop, but "slowly and not as a percentage of the dollar increase, as there is also inflation, for example, in the cost of construction".

In the future, this will ensure that prices of second-hand real estate will be accommodating and tend to fall. It will not be possible to place them at the level of those who were booming mortgage credit. Ignacio Camps, director of Evoluer, a real estate agency specializing in second-hand and high-end projects, agrees that, with the post-SAP financial situation, the buying and selling market has slowed down. "The situation depends on the winners of the elections: there are those who think of the end of financial affairs and the increase of property and those who, on the contrary, are willing to sell cheaper to minimize their exposure in Argentina "he explains.

Brick as a guarantee of value

Anyway, recognize that "it's about doing futurology" because the reality is that this week, some investors understand that
value guard and the increase in queries for properties. "There are people who have money in the bank and who prefer to allocate their savings to a used department in order to protect it.If this is accentuated, a greater demand would prevent prices from being touched, "they badyze in the market.

Covello also said demand could rise for "disillusioned markets". And he explains: "There are people who have been taken away by banks and operators to buy bonds and shares that will return to take refuge in the property, because that is the only thing that keeps value. "

The developer Gonzalo Monarca, president of the group of the same name, recognizes that the moment is well chosen to "preserve the savings realized on the bricks".

The camps, Covello and Monarca refer to specific cases. In the general badysis, the sector agrees that until there is a certain level of predictability, it is impossible to move towards a market improvement.

José Rozados, director of Real Estate Report, adds the possibility that the devaluation will reduce the dollar
cost of construction "An advantage that could appeal to investors," says the specialist, while acknowledging that the situation in the country could generate increased interest for investment in real estate located abroad.

Rozados is almost utopian in this scenario. He explains that the big challenge will be how to recreate mortgage credit to create a sustainable market over time. "It is a political decision aligned with the rest of those that must be taken in economic matters by the conduct that ultimately results from elections," he says, before returning to the subject of prices. It describes a market on which much of the offer is published with "fake prices", in which price genuineness is the key. "In any case, until there is certain certainty, it will be extremely difficult to agree on a price.Unfortunately, the operations will be reduced even more to those that are necessary. Liquidity is imposed on the brick, "he summarizes.

Real estate advisor Daniel Zampone put in perspective the impact of the PASS result on the construction sector. "In this context of uncertainty, the dream of the own house will remain
freeze For the most vulnerable sector that is looking for its first home, "he said, saying that" as in any crisis, there is a sector with a savings capacity that will benefit from the fall in the price of housing. " real estate badets. "in particular, to the possibility that people have with dollars in the mattress.

"They can negotiate a better price as the downward trend in real estate is going to intensify," he says, advising to buy garages or minimal units to keep climbing up to the end. that they reach the desired property. "In other words, he says Brick is like having more dollars back" and points out: "There were neighborhoods where, in a few years, the value of the square meter has tripled".

Purchase of a
well project This deserves another badysis. Work in progress continues. These are projects that have been sold financed in pesos with adjustment of the Argentine Construction Chamber to a moderately strong population sector that should not have any problems with the monthly commitment.

"The constructions did not stop, what happens is that the decisions are clearly not taken to start new businesses," said Damián Tabakman, president of the chamber of commerce of urban developers (CEDU ). It is also true that the devaluation of recent days has reduced the cost of building in dollars. An advantage that will last until the rise of the dollar is transferred to prices in pesos.

Beyond the badysis, the material trading conditions have varied over the course of the week: the suppliers no longer accept the 60-day payment terms and wish the
money in dollars immediately. "Today, no one wants to sell you, and even for you, the truck is asking for your money," said Monarca, who launched the $ 50-million Azzurra project, in which the value of lots vary between 60,000 and 400,000 USD.