Pressure exchange that only heats the parallel | Marginal dollar reached 182 pesos with minimal trading volume

the parallel dollar increased by 2 pesos and ended the day in 182 pesos. The level of volatility of the illegal exchange rate begins to increase as the elections approach as a mechanism of investor pressure dedicated to short-term financial speculation with the support of sectors of economic power engaged in devaluation.

Despite these currency manipulation attempts amplified by the media and warnings from market consultants, the economic team is betting on measures to regulate capital flows, managing to contain the tensions on the external front, accumulating international reserves and guaranteeing the stability of official dollar rates. used to export and import. the Reservations international outdated $ 43 billion for the first time in almost a year.

The warnings and forecasts of the city’s economists are not supported by evidence. Consultants who currently assure that after the elections the rate of adjustment of the official dollar will increase and predict a devaluation are the same as in October of last year have assured that the dollar will start 2021 above 200 pesos. However, the reality has turned: the gap has narrowed and the price of the financial dollar has approached 130 pesos.

The objective of the economic team is to maintain the stability of the official exchange rate, which is the one that has an impact on the real economy, at the same time as it seeks to reduce the volatility of the dollar prices traded on the stock exchange. . Unlike these markets, the parallel dollar has few operations and is easily manipulated. Its price is therefore not representative of the fundamentals of the economy.

The prices of the counted with liquidation and mep dollar located this Tuesday around the 166 pesos and they increased by less than 0.5 percent. This value is in line with the savings dollar benchmark which is quoted around 167 pesos and adds the country tax and the income tax surcharge to the official price. So far this month, the cash settlement has not seen any significant variation (less than 50 cents).

The strategy of the economic team to manage the foreign exchange market it has paid off in recent months with major purchases of foreign currency. This Tuesday, the Central Bank managed to make 30 million dollars and so far this month accumulates a figure of more than 1000 million. Since the start of the year, currencies purchased on the foreign exchange market have amounted to around $ 7.5 billion.

On the financial assets side, there was also a day of rebounds, mainly in equities. The Buenos Aires stock market was hit hard Monday by the fall of the international stock markets of the United States and emerging markets. The Merval rose 2 percent and there were stocks with increases of almost 8 percent. The same has happened among Argentine companies listed in New York with increases of more than 5%.

The foreign currency bonds also recorded a good performance with advances of more than 2 percent. This made it possible to reduce the countries at risk who ended the day in 1609 points and marked a decline of 0.9 percent. Parities of government securities operate between 34 and 38 percent parity (equivalent to a yield of 20 percent). In a scenario according to the International Monetary Fund and with the closing of the restructuring of the provincial debt on the market, they mention that these parities could double.