Private employment will continue to fall in 2019: the most affected sectors

As the contraction in activity will last several months, private employment is expected to continue to decline in 2019, especially in the first half of the year and in the productive sectors.

"Private employment would record a 0.5% contraction from one year to the next this year, with the largest decline concentrated in the first half (-0.9% year-on-year)" , the Foundation said in a report.

This is due to the fact that he expects a contraction in economic activity of 3.1% year-on-year in the first half, which "will continue to have a negative impact on an already weak labor market ".

The drop in employment this year will intensify after November, when there were 172,000 fewer formal jobs compared to the same month a year earlier, of which 118,000 came from the private sector. . A decline that increased in December in major urban centers (-2.3% in December, -1.3% in the second half of 2018), according to the Foundation.

"Although employment took a long time to register a decline after the sharp drop in activity, from September the impact has been felt in the labor market", according to The report.

Between November and November, the number of formal sector workers increased by 0.8% over the previous year but, starting in September, the process of job destruction began. It declined 1.4% in November and 0.9% in September. November

In addition, he pointed out that the public sector was the last to register a downsizing, while the private sector had the greatest destruction of use.

The share of private employment in total formal sector employees increased from 55.1% in 2012 to 50.8% in 2018. In contrast, the self-employed increased their participation by 1.3 percentage points ( although they started to record annual losses since October, which intensified in November, with 0.5%) and public sector employees, at 1.9 points (although the school was reduced). 7,000 employees or 0.2% over one year).

"Although the declines in the number of employees were first verified in smaller companies, large companies ended 2018 with significant losses.Finally, it should be noted the most pronounced contraction of the sector. and its loss of participation in the absorption of private employment, "added Fundación Capital.

Small businesses (between 10 and 200 employees) started to record losses since last July (-1.5%). In large companies, the declines were only verified since September and increased to a level similar to that of other companies in December (-0.8%).

To the same extent, they are the major producers of workplaces where they record the largest declines: the manufacturing industry (-5.2% in November or 62,000 workers less than a year ago) accumulates nearly three consecutive years of decline in the amount of workers. Construction (-4% or 19 thousand workers). Trade (-2.6% November).

A recent survey conducted by SEL Consultores coincided with downsizing in large companies. "One-third of companies downsized last year, with two out of ten companies still waiting for their staffing to continue to decline this year," said María Laura Cali, General Manager of Sel Consultores.

"In the best of cases, it will be a year in which employment will be maintained.A few people expect an increase and a significant proportion of them plans to continue reducing their endowments, "said Cali.

Although staffing expectations for 2019 are lower than for 2018, Cali pointed out that responses early in the year are generally benevolent compared to what is actually happening in the year . This is also explained by the fact that "companies have adjusted their allocations a lot," he added.

As detected by ManpowerGroup, Argentine employers were pessimistic for the first quarter of 2019: 8% of employers should increase their endowment, 11% expected a decrease and 77% did not expect changes in their workforce, which gives a clear perspective . -4% adjusted for seasonal variations.

"The hiring prospects are the lowest reported since the survey began 12 years ago, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter and 12 percentage points down from the previous quarter. Last year, "said in the consultation that on March 12 the second quarter results were released. (source: Infobae)