Putin's actions in Syria will not work in Venezuela

In Venezuela, it seems that Russia plays again a weak handl. The United States imposed crippling sanctions on the state oil company and summoned them to officials who joined the opposition, such as the chief of intelligence. However, With the support of Russia, the Venezuelan autocrat survives.

Then, when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives in Sochi this week, his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, will no doubt hope to exploit the situation with a well-known Russian ploy: create a geopolitical crisis and then propose to solve it.

That's what Lavrov did in Syria. While Russian mercenaries and kamikazes sprayed civilians with the help of Iranian militia, Lavrov met with then Secretary of State John Kerry to negotiate a political process to end to conflict. The joke lasted almost two years. It was only after the bombing of a humanitarian convoy by the Russians in September 2016 that Kerry realized that he had been fooled.

The Russians are planning a similar move in Venezuela. In an official statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry, summing up the May 1 call between Pompeo and Lavrov, calling for a "dialogue among all the political forces of the country". US officials tell me that they expect Lavrov to propose negotiations between Maduro and the opposition in which the autocrat remains in power while the two sides negotiate the terms and conditions. for holding new elections.

This is not a new idea. Maduro himself had talks with his opponents, then went back on his commitments. In January, US Senator Chris Murphy and Assistant National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes circulated the idea of ​​a political peace process in Venezuela, which excluded Russia but included a "clean bill". other predatory states such as China and Cuba.

Any negotiation with Maduro is a trap. For starters, he will use the time he wins at the table to split the opposition formed behind interim president, Juan Guaidó. This opposition includes many factions, including many supporters dissatisfied with Maduro's mentor, Hugo Chávez. An eternal process is an advantage for Maduro. It also undermines Guaidó's constitutional claim to power, which badumed the presidency after Maduro won illegitimate elections.

Doubts remain, however, as to the effectiveness of this Russian strategy. During a briefing to reporters last week, a senior state department official downplayed the expectations of a cooperation agreement between Russia and Venezuela. In addition, US officials have announced plans to impose more sanctions on Russia.

Pompeo has accused the state oil company Rosneft of violating the new US sanctions. to the Venezuelan national oil company (Rosneft denied the accusation). Pompeo also blamed Moscow for urging Maduro to stay in Caracas and not leave for Cuba when Guaidó called the protesters in the streets.

Of course, there remains the problem of President Donald Trump, whose public comments are not exactly aligned with those of Pompeo. Earlier this month, after a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Trump echoed Russia's argument that Russia only wanted "a positive result for the country." Venezuela".

Despite the public's deference to Putin, Trump has also shown his willingness to face Russia if necessary. He remained firm in the sanctions imposed on Russia after the 2016 elections, for example, and on two occasions he ordered major air strikes on the Russian client in Syria. It should also be noted that US special operations forces remain in Syria, despite Trump's promise to remove it precipitously in December.

That's why it's important that Trump and his top advisers have publicly stated that all options are still on the table for Venezuela. And that's another reason to be skeptical about the fact that Russian movements are operating in Venezuela just as they did in Syria.