Questions and answers about what's happening in Bolivia

Bolivia Experience the greatest citizen mobilization in its history. 10 days of unemployment and blockade of streets in the city of Santa Cruz, being the main target of the civil resistance to the government of Evo Morales, but not the only one to record massive mobilizations in the 9 capitals of the department of the country, as well as in the main intermediate cities. For this we discuss with Santiago Third – MBA, political scientist and sociologist (UBA) – Resident in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.

How can we get to this crisis?

On Sunday, October 20, the vote for the election of President, Vice President and Total Renovation of the Legislative Assembly Plurination, the congressional equivalent, after a rather controversial process.

The main breaking point of this crisis occurs on February 21, 2016 when, in a binding referendum convened by the government, it is requested to amend the article which states that reelection should be made only for a consecutive period. This referendum gives a negative victory of 51.3%. With this result, Morales could not run for the October 20 elections.

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However, in November 2017 The Constitutional Court declares that the right to be elected is a human right enshrined in the San José Pact, under which the article prohibiting indefinite reelection conflicts with international treaties that the Bolivian state has signed. The Constitution stipulates the supremacy of international treaties on itself. This is why the Constitutional Court gave the green light to Morales, generating at that time important citizen mobilizations.

In September 2018, with the promulgation of the new law on political organizations that regulates political parties and groups of citizens and introduced the figure of the first election. These primary elections are administered by the Plurinational Electoral Corps and were held in January with the particularity that no party has presented more than one pair. In this way, the process ended up being a process of summoning the militancy of each one of them and a measure of the real forces of militancy. In addition to filing complaints about the social networks of many people, this indicates that they are not activists. enrolled in electoral system systems as such in solving problems plus legitimacy issues.

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On Sunday, October 20, elections are held after a long enough campaign for presidential candidates. Nearly a year since the validation of the presidential binomials. The day is running normally and very hard in the streets. However, when the results are promulgated, the irregularities begin. he electorate I had allowed only one private company to quickly collect counting data. This result gives Morales the winner with 43.9% of them and Carlos Mesa with 39.4% of the vote. In Bolivia, the rule states that if 50% plus one vote is not reached, it can be won in the first round with more than 40% and a distance greater than 10% in the second. After that, the electorate had its own quick counting system that had announced that it would have 100% of the country the same day of elections. This system is called TREP. Around 8:00 pm on Sunday, the first publication of the results is produced at 84% of the verified records, showing a result very similar to that presented by the private company validating the second round. A few minutes later, the opposition candidate Carlos Mesa celebrates his passing in the second round, while Evo Morales He waits silently about two hours after entering the government palace and indicates that he would wait for the final results on the grounds that it was necessary to receive information on the registers of rural areas. TREP no longer updated the information presented when it was announced that the system would be updated live. Then it became apparent that the arrest of the transmission of results had been stopped by the president of the electorate. in person, the decision was declared policy by the authorities of the same body has resigned today. After nearly 24 hours of the first update of the TREP data, a new data update appears 99% Monday, indicating a final result of 46.8% for Morales and 36.7% for Carlos Mesa, generating a difference of 10.1. % between the first and second giving Morales the winner of the first round. The voices of electoral fraud are multiplying from this moment, including the same international mission of the OAS and the representatives of the European Union who are concerned about the interruption of the transmission of data and change of vote trend between updates. From Tuesday, October 22nd, mobilizations take place in all the badly disturbed cities.

Which actors are involved in this crisis?

In addition to Evo Morales and Carlos Mesa, main candidates in the elections of October 20th. Institutions of organized civil society have been added to this crisis, especially the civic committees of the country's departments. These institutions include the main departmental institutions in the form of companies. They represent the economic sectors (chambers of commerce and workers' associations) and cultural sectors (companies and fraternities). Within these committees, because of its history of regional claims, stands the Pro Santa Cruz Civic Committee of the same department. This committee He was the main mobilizer of the autonomous struggle At the beginning of the last decade and recently, on October 4, 2019, it mobilized more than one and a half million people to defend the forests of the Bolivian Amazon, which suffered burns of more than 5 millions of hectares. The Morales government has been accused of passing demining laws to expand the agricultural frontier. This committee led by its president, Luis Fernando Camacho, has been conducting an indefinite strike in the city of Santa Cruz since Wednesday, October 23rd. This strike concerns the passability of any vehicle, except for express ambulance authorizations, police and special cases, as well as the closing of stores and institutions. There are also civic committees in other departments that have called for mobilizations and stops in other cities of the country, generating a country in social upheaval during the longest period of its history.

All civic institutions and political parties of the opposition met at the Coordinator of Democracy to propose joint actions to be taken in defense of the vote.

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How has the conflict evolved?

After the abrupt interruption of the results and the subsequent presentation of a change of trend giving Morales a winner in the first round, the following demands of the opposition sectors followed.

In the first case, the electoral fraud was denounced and it was asked to respect the trends presented by the first leader, so to pass in the second round. Same recommendation given by the OAS and the EU. However, the official count went up during the week following October 20th and finally ended on Thursday October 24th, thus validating the change of trend and the victory of Morales in the first round. However, this process also presented irregularities with delays and counts of unemployed in several departments of the country without explanation. After that, when the fraud has been denounced, the process has been audited, in addition to the process of discussing whether it would be binding or not, that is, its findings and recommendations are mandatory for the Electoral body can dilute it. The request turns into a request for cancellation of elections and appeal to a new process, but without specifying how it will be executed. This change of position was a first sign of lack of coordination of the opposition.

Meanwhile, Morales, during the first week of the conflict, took a shocking stance, calling for the mobilization of its sectors to defend the vote and its victory, despite the threats of its key leaders regarding potentially unnecessary deaths. Finally, the maximum level of escalation of the conflict is given by the threat of Morales to surround the cities where stops and checkpoints are held to prevent the arrival of food.

In addition, there is a deep wave of misinformation with fake news circulating through social networks generating micro-conflicts in some places. Suffering from a maximum tension with the death of two people on Tuesday, October 29 after clashes in the city of Montero 50 kilometers from Santa Cruz. These deaths led the Pro Santa Cruz Civic Committee to modify his request again, this time demanding the irrevocable resignation of Morales as president and new elections without his participation or that of his party.

The OAS international mission is already in Bolivia to carry out the aforementioned audit. Upon his arrival, Morales takes a different attitude by arranging an intermediate room during the mission, in addition to highlighting the holidays of Todos Santos and stopping the professional football because of conflicts. social.

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What are the issues of conflict?

Bolivia is in a situation where the Movement to socialism led by Morales, he has ruled the country for 14 years and supports all political institutions in the country. Included in this process are organs that should serve as a counterbalance to the executive, such as the judiciary, the electoral power and the office of the ombudsman. The approach of the resignation of the president would generate an unrealizable succession crisis since all lines are loyal to Morales, including those who should not be political.

The approach of the new elections is an option that would allow a pacification of the country, but it is a process that requires negotiation between the parties to define the rules of the game. The regulations of the country do not provide for it and important political will will be necessary to make it viable.

The second round, considered as a possible alternative, was rejected by the entire opposition, given the escalation of the social conflict and the fact that the first round, with the current results, gives majorities to the MAS in both rooms. An opposition government scenario in this case would be a deep political crisis of the country's ungovernability.

Although there are requests for transition with a military government, the level of rejection of the population at that is greater than their acceptance, as well as the fact that these hierarchies are also loyal to Morales.

In the end, the level of rejection of Morales' person and his party 's top leaders has reached a dangerous level that can prevent a negotiated exit from the crisis, but that' s the only possible way to get them off the hook. avoid the aggravation of the conflict. and the risks of more bloodshed. International mediation appears as a relevant alternative in this scenario, especially since it is necessary to calm the spirits of a population greatly exacerbated by the escalating conflict. It is in the figure of Morales the keys necessary to realize a non-violent exit which makes it possible to stabilize the country.

ER