Regarding the government of Cambiemos, Argentine companies listed on the local stock exchange lost 17% of their value in dollars

"When the wait is not satisfied, the market punishes you severely"says an operator at the end of the trading week. There is something bad mood; It's probably Friday's fatigue. He listens exhausted.

"Here they are all identical", stops looking at a screen of operations that celebrate a good day abroad, with all the "green" markets. The local stock market also grew by 1.4% and ADRs, the 19 local stocks traded in the United States, grew on average by 3% as banks reduced some of the year 's losses. The "green" count on the screen of the day, of course, but the stock market is a constant. "Vaivenes, reaction and memory, here we forget nothing", warns the broker.

According to a survey by Research for Traders, up here in the Cambiemos government, local companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange they lost 17% of their market value measured in dollars. That is to say, in just over three years, the individual capitalization of more than 70 companies has grown from $ 56,400 million to today's cash in hand value – which was well worth Mauricio Macri supposedly, up to $ 47 billion of those hours (according to the dollar last Thursday).

The fall in pesos is similar. Although the joint value increased from $ 851,700 million to $ 1.9 billion, which gives an increase of 126%, when the accumulated inflation during the period is subtracted, the loss exceeds 22%.

The sample excludes large companies listed locally but which are foreigners such as Petrobras – which has seen an incredible increase of more than 400% in dollars since 2015 -, Telefónica, Repsol – which is no longer rated in scholarship since the beginning of the year. – and Tenaris, the global steel giant from Techint (Ternium Siderar, also from the group of Paolo RoccaYes, it's included).

"It's a mbadacre if you look at it from end to end," says the tired operator. Of course, few investors who bet on the stock market – those here and those abroad – stay so long "indoors". They come and go.

"If you invested in stocks, everything went very well until January 2018. From then on, everything was disastrous and the profits of Argentine companies had dropped. Throughout this period, has this mandate covered you with inflation and the dollar? For nothing. The dollar was at $ 15 and today at $ 40. If you have made a fixed term, with interests that have increased but accumulated, you have earned more money, "he describes. Gustavo Neffa, director of research for Trader.

"There was a break in early 2018. In February, the stock market began to collapse: January gave very good numbers that were wiped out at 50% in dollars throughout the year"So it was the" party "of 2017, to which the Merval – now S & P Merval – gave throughout the year a leap of almost 100%.

"The local stock market does not finish to take off for the economy, it is like that, there are no other reasons, but it is ahead of what is going to happen." We are now in recession, with depressed values, but we could start a good step if growth forecasts are reached by 2020 and 2021", says the badyst.

The political factor matters a lot. They aroused expectations with the arrival of Cambiemos, then fell sharply and there is now uncertainty. "Before winning the change, wagering that they were coming, the market had a lot of expectations and had risen a lot, the idea was that things were going to improve a lot, but if the Promises are not kept, the investor goes away. There was a moment of gain, but the results in the economy did not come and go. And here is the fall. This has also had an impact on bonds and country risk, "explains the financial badyst. Christian Buteler.

Energetic, those who grew up

Of the 64 companies that compare the figures between the two points badyzed, only 21 recorded growth in their market value (still in dollars). Among them, one element stands out, that of those related to energy. This is the case of Transportadora Gas del Norte, with Techint as the main shareholder, with a sharp increase of 233.57%; Transportadora Gas del Sur (126.94%), Pampa Energía and other investors; Transener, (124.28%); Camuzzi (68.5%); Capex (67.05%), Pampa Energía (48.1%), Distribuidora Gas Cuyana (45.11%), Central Puerto (14.8%) and Metrogas (13%).

YPF recorded a decline of 16%, despite periods of increase in 2017, and Naturgy (formerly Gas Natural Fenosa) by 25.5%.

"The electricity sector has experienced a restructuring of rates unprecedented in history. They came from fixed and frozen tariffs, all that changed, but it is linked to investments. These are the companies that have managed to refinance their debts at lower rates in 2016 and 2017 and that now have rates that establish the equation of income and cost in value. However, the sector is very likely to cancel the 50% increases, as requested by Unidad Ciudadana, "says Neffa.

Another group that celebrated, also tied to higher fares, was the toll companies. Autopistas del Sol added 135.2% to its value, and Grupo Concesionario del Oeste, 179%. Chemicals such as Solvay Indupa (85.37%) and Insuagro (61.79%) recorded and recorded increases for Cresud, the Eduardo Elsztain who is one of the country's largest landowners (9.68%); Holcim cement company (86.99%); and Telecom Argentina, with an increase of 109%.

Among the sectors most affected, the first place is undoubtedly the financial category. "Banks are very affected by the situation. They constitute a very cyclical segment, very exposed to the public sector. He had already seen Lebac and now the Leliq, with a very high weight among his strengths, "said Neffa.

"There is also the question of the dollarization of the portfolios and the release of dollars from the system, but other dollars have arrived and today, the total deposits in this currency is more important than that. before the period, that is, for the profits and the value of companies, is cyclical and has impacts, "he explained.

The only company that has been "saved" is Grupo Financiero Galicia, whose market capitalization in dollars it increased during change management 21.3 percent. Among the falls, there are Banco Santander Río (51.7%), Banco Patagonia (49.6%), BBVA Francés (40.41%), Banco Hipotecario (26.24%) and Banco Macro (4.14%). ). ).

Food is another high-impact element, in the fall of consumption and the acceleration of inflation. Molinos Río de la Plata had a significant impact of -87.5%; the citrus fruits of San Miguel, -30.5%; Juan Semino factories, -72.19%; and Bodegas Esmeralda, -22.68 percent.

"The stock market, including the bond market, but especially the stock market, has decreased significantly in volume of operations.At today, everything is done in the ADR, which also fell because of the electoral risk ", did he declare. Ariel Sbdar, Head of Bind Investors' Equity Strategy. "I am optimistic in the medium term If the elections are favorable to a candidate who is not anti-market, companies in the energy sector will be more favored. They are fine, but they can be better. Generators, distributors and oil and gas, are those who upside down he will get"he badured.

"Forward, we are seeing more uncertainty in the election year, with a stagnant economy and a weak and battered currency," Buteler added.

"It will be a year of great volatility without us knowing how it will end." This has an impact on the stock market because the investments are very thoughtful and are made using ongoing surveys. It is not the same as winning one or the other. Even for the ruling party will not be easy because we do not know if there will be improvements. The market knows that Cambiemos did not succeed either, " he said.

Neffa, meanwhile, thinks that Macri will be reelected in the second round. "He has all the support of the IMF, I do not see debt restructuring in 2020 and economic growth above 2%. This will give the shares another color, but it is necessary to wait for the recomposition of the purchasing power of the wages and the improvement of the price of the wages. basic products make a good year", closed the research badyst for traders.

Bolsa is synonymous with risk, expectations and excitement. The stock market is generally ahead of what will happen, but investors do not lose their memory in the face of dynamism. They remember all the promises, especially those that are not fulfilled.