Reinforced Catalan separatism aligns itself to curb the access to power of socialists

BARCELONA – In the current era of fragmentation and polarization that most democracies are going through, polls rarely deliver a clear verdict. The party with the most votes does not always end up being able to form a government, negotiations between the parties continue until the end of the legal term, and sometimes they even end up repeating the elections for lack of agreements. . Yes Catalonia, bitterly divided on the question of Spain’s independence, is no exception.

A few hours after the recount of their regional elections, the Catalan parties began the usual mating rite for the nomination, with their declarations, compliments and corresponding gestures.

Without a doubt, Pere Aragonés, the candidate of the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), is in the best position to become the next president of the Generalitat. This is what he hinted during his appearance on election night, in an attempt to mark the playing field. “Catalonia needs to open a new stage, and it will do so with a large government, led by ERC ”, proclaimed the young politician, flanked by his mentor, Oriol Junqueras.

However, the former Minister of Health, the socialist Salvador Illa, does not resign to preside over Catalonia. Your party, the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC), was the most voted but tied with 33 seats with the ERC.

“I will appear for the nomination in a fair correspondence, being the first political force, by coherence and conviction”Illa insisted today, an obscure politician in the party apparatus until the pandemic unexpectedly catapulted him.

Socialists stress that the polls have lit a clear majority on the left and suggest possible support for the ERC, in addition to the Catalan branch of Podemos, its partner in the state government led by Pedro Sánchez.

However, behind a closed microphone, both in Barcelona and Moncloa, the socialist leaders admit that this option is implausible, because the independence parties have managed not only to exceed the threshold of the absolute majority (68 seats), but to s ‘to expand. with 74 seats in Parliament, collect for the first time in history more than 50% of the votes.

In fact, the separatist parties even signed a document in the throes of the campaign in which they promised to not to form a government with the Socialists, whom they accuse of having been complicit in the “policy of repression” orchestrated by the previous government of Mariano Rajoy, of the Popular Party (PP) in response to the secessionist challenge. Even Illa himself has said in debates as “active, passive and peripheral” that he would not agree with secessionist forces.

Illa is not the only candidate who sketches formulas of government which he knows impossible to satisfy in his parish. Aragonés carried out a similar maneuver, insisting on a cabinet that he describes as “wide path”, and which would include the three pro-independence forces – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), Junts per Catalunya and La Candidatura de Unidad Popular (CUP) – in addition to the Catalan subsidiary of Podemos.

The cement of this coalition, according to Aragonés, would be the support of all these formations for the amnesty of “political prisoners” and the exercise of the right to self-determination as a solution to the conflict between Catalonia and Spain.

For ERC, this is the ideal formula, because it would be the strongest possible executive to start negotiations with Madrid and, in addition, it would allow it to occupy the political centrality. However, there are two elements of this complex alchemy which, mixed together, cause a volcanic reaction: the transformative left of Podemos and the nationalist right of Junts. Both have already warned ERC of the zero viability of the “wide road” during the campaign and after the elections, they reiterated this position.

So, the most likely thing is that an exclusively independentist executive will eventually form. Now even this road is littered with mines. The three parties differ in their strategy to achieve independence. ERC is committed to fully commit to “Dialogue table” that it agreed last year with President Sánchez and that it has only met once. The Republicans’ goal is to scrape off the table an improbable referendum agreed with Madrid.

Junts per Catalunya, on the other hand, led by former President Carles Puigdemont from his exile in Belgium, sees it as a waste of time, and defends a confrontation with the state.

The CUP, for its part, included in its program a new illegal referendum like the one held in 2017 before the end of the mandate.

In short, after the coup which represented the failure of the declaration of independence three years ago, with serious consequences for those who promoted it, the secessionists do not have a common roadmap.

Meanwhile, in Madrid, the election result provoked strong turbulence in the two right-wing opposition parties, Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, after their humiliating defeat to the far right of Vox.

Officials from both parties were quick to point out that the dynamics of Catalan politics are not representative of the Council of State and denied that the leaders of Inés Arrimadas and Pablo Casado are in question.

In La Moncloa, President Pedro Sánchez can breathe: his bet to send Illa to Catalonia will not be reported by the Generalitat, but at least he has plunged the opposition into anguish.

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