Republicans to block another vote

Faced with the parliamentary blockade, the president Joe biden finally hit the scene this week.

The President will meet with leading banking and business leaders this afternoon to discuss “the urgent need for Congress to act immediately with bipartisan support” for to avoid “the economic catastrophe which would result” from a default of the first world power, according to the White House.

Among the guests are the managing directors of the banks JPMorgan Chase, Citi and Bank of America, as well as the heads of the Nasdaq and the big companies Intel and Raytheon.

“I can’t believe they’re going to be so irresponsible,” the Democratic president said of Republicans on Tuesday evening, promising to speak to their leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell.

McConnell has insisted for months that his party will in no way vote with the Democrats to suspend or increase the United States’ borrowing limit, as that would be tantamount to giving the green light to Biden’s massive spending plans.

Republicans seek to force Democrats to raising the debt ceiling through “reconciliation”, a legislative process that allows the majority party – in this case the Democrats – to act alone and pass laws with its own votes.

Democrats have publicly ruled it out, saying there was not enough time for this process until October 18, when the United States is expected to run out of funds to meet its obligations to its creditors. default on your debt of more than $ 28 trillion.

The “reconciliation” would allow Republicans to use debt as a political club in next year’s midterm elections.

The United States has never defaulted, and global market analysts still expect their borrowing capacity to increase before disaster strikes. Corn with the Senate recess scheduled for next week, that might not happen.

The debt limit will be reached on October 18, according to the Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen. However, the Bipartisan Policy Center, an independent think tank, estimated on Wednesday that the United States will experience liquidity problems between October 19 and November 2.

“Even before October 19, the Treasury will have dangerously low liquidity levels. An unexpected event could degenerate into a financial crisis,” he noted.

The Secretary of Defense, Lloyd AustinHe raised his voice on Wednesday, warning that a default would affect “the security” of the country and “seriously hit” the military and their families because they could not receive their assets on time, or in full.

On Wednesday, the leader of the Senate Democrats, Chuck schumer, proposed a vote on a text suspending the debt ceiling until December 2022.

It is only a procedural vote and then proceeds to the final vote, by simple majority, held by the Democrats.

But to take that procedural step, they need at least 10 Republicans to join the 50 Democrats. A prospect which for the moment seems impossible.

Thus, this vote is doomed to failure and great uncertainty hangs over the next step.

Ahead of the deaf dialogue between Republicans and Democrats, Biden spoke of “the real possibility” of changing the rules in Congress to bypass the blockade of the Republican minority.

But this “nuclear option” seems unlikely given the opposition of some Democrats.

For now, there is a good chance that the Republican leader will give in – which is not customary – and allow Democrats to vote by a simple majority, or that the Democrats will give in and go for the complicated maneuver of ” reconciliation”.

Then they should get a promise from Republicans that they wouldn’t drag this out any longer than necessary, which typically involves two full nights of voting slowed down by a flood of amendments proposed by the opposition.

Alternatively, the two sides could agree to a temporary suspension of the debt ceiling, while the problem is resolved by this long parliamentary maneuver.