Return to the polls: the announced turn of the Venezuelan opposition | The keys to this new stage in Venezuela

The decision transmitted by the historic leader of Acción Democrática (AD), Henry Ramos Allup, was the confirmation of what was weakly anticipated at the beginning of the year and, more strongly, in recent months and weeks. On this path, there were three central moments: the announcement in May of the negotiated constitution of a new National Electoral Council made up of Chavistas and members of the opposition, the first confirmations of a rapprochement between the nucleated opposition of Guaidó and the government, and, finally, the beginning of the dialogues in Mexico August 13.

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These events were in turn accompanied by visits by international delegations, like those of the Kingdom of Norway, central actor of the dialogues, or of the European Union which, in June, was in Caracas to evaluate a possible deployment of an electoral mission in November. The United States, for its part, has been working during these months in a public discourse in favor of dialogue from its position of decisive force., being the one who maintains the economic blockade on the country and can, therefore, lift or maintain the sanctions.

Allup said on Tuesday that the decision to participate in November has “the approval of the international community, of the United States, Canada and European Union”. The AD spokesperson should also clarify that the absence from the press conference of Guaidó and his political party Voluntad Popular (VP) does not mean a disagreement: “his party participates, Leopoldo (López) participates, he has itself proposed candidates “.

VP, a few hours earlier, had made a statement through his leader Freddy Guevara, in which he asserted his betting position on a “Negotiated solution” and the need to put an end to what he called the “dynamic of the vicious circle”: “we have years when one of the parties feels strong and we think that we will be able to crush the other, and when the other party feels strong, it is also supposes and believes that he can completely displace or eliminate the other ”.

The announcement of participation in the elections as part of the Mexican dialogues indicates that it could face a change of stage in the conflict, after years of escalation that began with the ignorance of the presidential elections of 2018. Guaidó’s self-proclamation as “interim president” in 2019, followed by the attempted entry of “international aid” into Venezuela from Colombia, the failed April 30 coup led by Guaidó and López – with the presence of Allup-, the arrival of mercenaries for Operation Gideon in April 2020, until the electoral abstention in the legislative elections of 2020.

The return to the elections by this sector of the opposition means a recognition, both internally, and especially by Washington and its new administration, of the impossibility of having succeeded in the overthrow of Maduro with the so-called maximum pressure. “Me voy a sentar en mi butaca con mi televisor prisido y put cotufas (pochoclos) a ver a Juan Guaidó votando el 21 de noviembre, y allí aplaudiré porque lo logramos, incluirlo en la democracia otra vez”, afirmó Maduro el martes en la night.

This is not the first time that a return to the polls has taken place after a defeat in the coup. In 2017, after the escalation of mobilizations on the right, armed violence and a call to the Bolivarian National Armed Forces not to recognize Maduro, part of the opposition, led by Allup, decided to stand for municipal and regional elections, and another opted for abstention.

Since then, the opposition map began to fragment until it became the current five sectors. On the one hand, those who stood for the presidential elections of 2018, then formed the Dialogue Table in 2019, on the other hand, those who broke with Guaidó of the legislature in 2020 and then internally divided their parties. as AD and Primero Justicia (PJ), thirdly, the opposition actors who made up Fuerza Vecinal, which brings together opponents at the head of mayors, fourthly the forces articulated around Guaidó, it is ie part of AD, PC, VP and Un Nuevo Tiempo, and, finally, those who maintain an abstentionist position, like María Corina Machado and now also David Smolansky, VP.

The latest sector to join the elections has the challenge of promoting an electoral campaign explaining the turn, that is, why now the strategy is to participate and not to abstain. “The concessions that have been obtained obviously go through negotiation. We do not have all the guarantees, but we cannot, if we do not have 100% of the guarantees, we will not participate (…) we understand that the elections will be a useful field of struggle to strengthen citizenship and promote the real solution to the serious crisis in our country: free presidential and legislative elections, ”said Allup.

Chavismo, in this scenario, will go to the elections with the reinforcement, not without tensions, which meant the primary elections of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, with 3.5 million voters, to elect the candidates for the positions of mayor and governor. November will be an opportunity to measure political forces and electoral participation after several years of decline in a context of social, political and economic exhaustion. Before the war, there could be new advances in the framework of the dialogues that will resume in the coming days in Mexico, and it will be gradually clarified whether the conflict will indeed enter a new necessary stage or, on the contrary, a repetition of the sequences. continue to.