Revelations on the Venezuelan crisis: much more than it seems (second part) – 02/01/2019

There are objective reasons for the encirclement of the Chavez regime that seem to be taking the final steps. It is the nomenclature itself that has crossed too many red lines without judiciously evaluating the counterweights. From a strategic point of view, fraud and dissident censorship were not necessary at last year 's presidential elections, nor did the presidency' s hypothesis suggest that it was not necessary. a huge size of the banana, like that of January 10, nor the repression of the working groups. in the street shoot teenagers to maintain public control. These are not excesses, moreover, it is the identity of a military civic process that reproduces the preservation methodology applied by the military regimes that the region had suffered in the past. The exception is a libertarian language of his leadership that, until recently, was functioning as an effective teflon of these miseries.

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This description explains the reasons for the influx of international support obtained immediately by the experience of interim presidency launched by MP Juan Guaidó. The Venezuelan crisis is a huge media case and the emergence of the hope of a democratic alternative forms an epic that catches the world's attention with the context of a country in ruins , of a vanished state and of a repressed and hungry people.

For Donald Trump's government, the tragedy of its Caribbean neighbor was an opportunity to show political correctness. His decision to consolidate the Guaidó government project, however, responds to more complex interests that are moving towards a redesign of the region with the old vision of the backyard of the times of the cold war. As we will see later, Cuba being the main target. These intentions are at the base of the enormous firepower that the White House has destined for the Venezuelan episode. The measures adopted by the US Treasury on the national oil company PDVSA are perhaps the most radical key to suspect that almost two decades of Chavismo are already on an inexorable slope.

Venezuela sells half a million barrels a day in the United States of a viscous oil that requires special treatment and on which depend a handful of refineries operating under the republican regime not to reduce this traffic. Valero Energy Corp. and Citgo, the Venezuelan state subsidiary, are among the major importers of this crude at a rate of about $ 800 million a month, according to the latest price of the Venezuelan basket. about $ 55.5 a barrel.

Since the time of Hugo Chávez, the trade with the North American power constituted the main income of the fresh currencies of the regime. The White House has not suspended this exchange, but it has imposed on PDVSA a series of sanctions that include the blocking of accounts when the income is run by the fluid, to which only officials designated by the dissent have access. In general, this announcement placed $ 7 billion in badets of the strategic Crown corporation and up to $ 11 billion in export earnings during the year. This is a blow to the spine of the diet.

The magnitude of the damage is evident in the urgency for the Nicolás Maduro government to get rid of its gold reserves, with deliveries in principle of 3 tons to customers such as the United Arab Emirates , who reported about $ 1.2 billion. This liquidity is essential to keep the regime afloat and ensure loyalties at the top of power. But this is not a lifeline, as all the parameters have been skewed by international isolation and the emergence of this political alternative.

Eloquently, Russia, which is the lender of last resort, has begun to show some distance from its partner. Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov revealed on Monday that Vladimir Putin's government did not intend to provide additional financial or military support to keep Maduro in power. Moscow has lent up to $ 17 billion to Caracas since 2006 and is investing in deposits in the Orinoco. A change in the balance of power can not develop these companies, but it does not endanger them in any way. The same goes for China, the main creditor of the $ 60 billion scheme that Caracas discovers with 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

Beijing, unlike Moscow, has no geopolitical interest in its relations with Chavismo and will continue to negotiate with anyone who will badume its responsibilities, according to diplomatic sources in this column. For Russia, the money invested was badociated with a sense of presence in the US court, which would be lost with this turnaround. But it was a predictable conclusion.

The concrete thing is that Chavez 's irresponsibility has been Archimedes' leverage to allow Washington to decide to go ahead with a program from another era. A recent Wall Street Journal report, citing government sources, said the case of Venezuela was the first step in extending Washington's influence in the region and producing a movement not just in this country, but especially in its Cuban ally. The third actor of the target is Daniel Ortega's authoritarian Nicaragua, thus configuring the new axis of evil quoted as such by the national security advisor, John Bolton, the face-up of all American actions on Chavismo.

According to the newspaper, one of the next steps planned by Washington is "the resumption of the qualification of Cuba as state support for terrorism" that former President Barack Obama had eliminated. "It would affect the financing and investments of countries that are now doing business on the island – like almost all Europeans – as well as the flow of funds that the country derives from international tourism," he adds.

In addition to a series of sanctions against the Cuban civil service, it is also planned to conclude an exemption under Title III of the Helms Burton Act – which has magnified the blockade imposed on Cuba – and which has been respected by all US governments since . in its early days in 1996. This would allow an avalanche of lawsuits in US courts. against citizens and businesses for the property seized by the Cuban revolution more than half a century ago. The impact would be substantial: "This would free up billions of dollars in international investment in Cuba, including hotels, golf courses and other projects." It's total war.

On the political level, this would put an end to any possibility of agreements with the communist island whose connection with the Bolivarian process is at least complicated. And this would bring back the Cuban question to the previous examples of the hemisphere, which the Democratic leader sought to solve with a broader historical vision. The increase in trade and tourism would stimulate the opening changes on the island. On the contrary, the closure.

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It is therefore not surprising that the specter that this crisis has incarnated presents itself. Besides Bolton who, as George Bush's ambbadador to the UN, was one of the pillars of the defense of the invasion of Iraq in 2003 on the basis of myth of weapons of mbad destruction, the US Department of Foreign Affairs has added other surprises. Minister Mike Pompeo has just named a controversial figure, Elliot Abrams, who led the Iran-Contras scandal under the administration of Ronald Reagan as envoy for democracy to Venezuela.

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This episode consisted of the illegal sale of arms to Tehran to use the money of the armed "guerrillas" against the Sandinists. Abrams was punished for lying to Congress who banned this badistance, but Bush forgave him and promoted him to the rank of leader of the Middle East and North Africa, from where he defended the "reasonableness" of the invasion of Iraq. Pompeo, in designating it, has presented it as "a real badet in our mission to help the Venezuelan people to recover the country's democracy and prosperity".

I thought so

Copyrigh Clarin. February 2019