Russia and China, or the United States: is it convenient for Argentina to take sides in vaccine geopolitics?

Precious object of 2021 and probably of the whole decade which begins, the coronavirus vaccine has several capacities. It prevents death and serious illness, fuels the optimism of societies as its application progresses, thickens the power and spheres of influence of producing countries, and brings nations together. OR also keep them away.

This vaccine diplomacy is nothing new. When the rivalry between the United States and the former Soviet Union put the world on hold, in the 1950s, American (and Russian by birth) Albert Sabin and Russian Mikhail Chumakov teamed up to test the definitive polio vaccination. And they opened an unexpected break in the Cold War. From their joint work was born the vaccine that would end one of the greatest health threats of the 20th century.

Today, this collaboration has given way to a growing rivalry that reveals the geopolitical ambitions and needs of the powers and that, with a certain cold war mentality, reflected two weeks ago by the vice-president Cristina Kirchner.

“Who would say that in the midst of this atrocious pandemic that has shattered all models of government management, the only vaccines we have today are Russian and Chinese. What no? He said at the March 24 event in Las Flores.

The criticism of the rise of the Vice President in the United States is also a description of Argentina’s vaccine purchasing policy: immunization is based on doses of Sinopharm and Sputnik V. With the exception of AstraZeneca, Western laboratory vaccines, all more effective, are now absent.

Yes, today our vaccines come from China and Russia. But the doses committed by the country are not sufficient to obtain collective immunity. Where will he find the necessary to cover 70% of Argentines as quickly as possible, to avoid the emergence of a variant of the virus?

1- The ambitions of Moscow and Beijing

The diplomacy of the vaccine has many faces and, also, several protagonists. The most obvious of these facets is the donation of vaccines; Another, less obvious but just as critical in consolidating a country’s reputation and influence in the rest of the world, is the production and sale of doses.

From Israel to Chile or the United Arab Emirates, at least 19 countries have already donated nearly 30 million doses to 102 poorer countries, individually or through the Covax system, which ensures that the poorest corners of the world can access immunization. Among these nations, those which articulated the best and the best gift and sale are Russia, China and India. To date, according to the ThinkGlobalHealth database, Russia has donated vaccines to 10 countries and sold them to 55. China reversed this equation and donated to 69 countries while selling doses to 28 others. . India, for its part, donated to 14 countries.

In this list of contributors, there are two visibly absent donors: the United States and the European Union (EU).

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, admitted last March that the block – which has 1,885 million doses committed for this year (4.66 per capita), according to the University’s vaccine database Duke – he won’t be able to donate vaccines until Europe reaches a certain level of immunity.

The United States, for its part, purchased 1.210 million doses for this year (3.99 doses per person)But it was not until March that he decided to lend several million doses of AstraZeneca to Mexico and Canada. Both made up for the lack of solidarity with money. While the EU has contributed more than $ 2.5 billion to Covax, the Biden administration has pledged $ 4 billion.

Of course, the money is of little use if there are no vaccines to buy. Covax is virtually crippled by production problems at factories in several countries and by obstacles to vaccine exports, especially to India.

Faced with this scenario, Argentina’s determination to appeal to Moscow and Beijing for access to vaccines appears to be a wise diplomatic and health move; after all, most of the more than seven million doses applied in the country come from there.

However, it is half. Seen through the prism of reality and health and geopolitical future – not ideology – this decision takes on another, darker color that surrounds it with challenges.

The first problem with the decision is that the vaccines don’t arrive. Moscow and Beijing are betting on vaccine diplomacy to occupy the spaces from which the Western powers have withdrawn, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America, regions that mainly use their doses.

But both face enormous challenges in expanding vaccine production, both within and outside their national boundaries, so much so that even their local vaccinations are low. Russia applied doses equivalent to 8.5% of its population and China, 13%. Argentina, for example, received only 18% of the 25 million Sputnik V purchased and 50% from Sinopharm, which were also the most expensive.

2- Washington counter-offensive

The second problem is more of a question than a problem. Does the health approach of China and Russia imply a geopolitical distance from the United States? If so, if it is as Vice President Kirchner suggested, Argentina’s decision ignores two compelling data, which could help reverse the local health situation.

If they maintain their current immunization rate, the United States will have been able to immunize all Americans over the age of 18 by June 30.; This number represents 78% of the country’s population, a level sufficient to obtain collective immunity.

In this process, he will have used around 510 million doses and Washington has already warned that he will spare quite a few more to apply reinforcements. Official and NGO estimates estimate that the United States will then have between 450 and 600 million doses remaining, which it already has in stock.

What will Washington do with this surplus? The same thing Russia and China are doing today: protecting and expanding their spheres of influence. But with one difference: it has the doses available and its rivals, no.

“I think once we get to a certain level of immunization, we’ll see a greater commitment from the Biden administration to the world. We are already seeing signs. It will not be diplomacy like that of other countries [en alusión a Rusia y China], who distribute and sell doses to nations that are strategic targets. It is probably a policy more oriented towards aid and the distribution of vaccines in regions with high contagion, such as Africa and Latin America, ”explains Tom Bollyky, director of the North Council’s global health program to the nation. -american foreign relations. .

The government of Joe biden it began in March to imply that it plans to end America’s overt and willful absence of vaccine diplomacy. Provided vaccines to Mexico and Canada; agreed with India, Australia and Japan to produce 1 billion doses for distribution in South Asia and appointed Gayle Smith, an influential global development expert, as envoy for vaccine diplomacy.

For Washington, it is not only a question of reclaiming the ground ceded to Russia and Moscow; it is fundamentally a national security interest “in the face of the acute threat posed by viral variants and geopolitical rivals,” said a report released last week by influential think tank CSIS.

3- Between necessity and politics

The Argentine country has signed contracts to access around 55 million doses, a figure that would not be enough to obtain collective immunity. To cover 70% of the population, it would take no less than seven million more, an elusive goal today in the face of global disappearances.

In other words, Argentina does not have the doses it bought and, if available, they would not be enough to contain the pandemic. You need the vaccines, donated or sold, from the United States. the government of Alberto Fernández gave clues to be aware of it last week, when he asked Biden envoy Juan González for help with vaccines.

Will you be able to access it? And if so, when?

“The problem is the timing. I have my doubts when the United States could begin diplomacy. Variations could delay donations beyond the summer. [boreal]Bollyky warns, adding that Washington could aim for the end of the year.

The other unknown is: Will an Argentina that takes a stand in the public discourse of Russia and China be among the diplomatic priorities of the United States?

“There is no national security without an international vaccination strategy. Latin American countries will be in first place [por el factor geográfico]», Declares, in dialogue with the nation, Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quaterly.

However, Winter believes that the priority will be in Central America, due to the migration crisis – “The entire Biden team for the region is dedicated to this issue” -, and Colombia, which has a health situation similar to that of Argentina.

“Biden’s is the first Democratic government to recognize China as a real threat. And Colombia [además de México], the United States’ greatest ally in the region, is starting to draw closer to China, ”he said.

Winter warns that while he seeks to contain the Chinese advance in the region, it would be unwise for Washington to force other nations to choose between one power and another. “The risk is that they decide for each other [China], ” of.

If Argentina is not faced with the dilemma of having to choose between US health diplomacy or China and Russia for the powers themselves, then will it be able to balance its relationship to achieve the greatest number of vaccines and tools to quit. the coronavirus?

In pandemic Argentina, where government decisions change rapidly and centers of power collide, this is not a certainty.

“The big problem [diplomático] Argentina is that foreign policy has been used as a means of settling conflicts internally. This has happened in all governments, ”warns Roberto Bouzas, professor at the University of San Andrés.

For Alberto Fernández, the risk of not changing this bad habit is that ideology neutralizes vaccination.