Russia the big player Biden should consider striking a new nuclear deal with Iran

Since his arrival in the Oval Room, President Joe Biden has given several signs that show his willingness to reverse the agreement signed in his time by former President Barack Obama with Iran. The issue appears to be a priority in the Democratic administration’s foreign policy.

The agreement between the United States and Iran was known as the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA) and also involved Russia, Britain, China, France and the United States. ‘Germany, who participated and played a vital role in July 2015. The main objective of this agreement was to limit the enrichment of Iranian uranium to minimum levels to control the nuclear race of the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, former President Donald Trump, in accordance with his policy of pressure on the Islamic Republic, withdrew from the agreement in May 2018.

With the assumption of office of Joe Biden, the international community has started to follow closely the measures that Washington may take in the coming days towards Tehran on the JCPOA.. The European Union (EU) seems to pay special attention to two countries: Russia and China. For its part, Moscow has helped Iran’s nuclear program for years, while Beijing has in recent years shown its support for any scenario that allows it to reap economic benefits against the United States.

In the case of Russia, it has been clearly demonstrated and even recognized by Moscow that Russian state-owned enterprises collaborated and supported the Iranians to build and commission the Bushehr nuclear power plant. It is undeniable that Russia today exercises a great influence on the installation and has done so even since the signing of the JCPOA. Even like that, in the idea of ​​Biden el papel de Rusia para reactivar el acuerdo es fundamental en el presente, y no está mal que así sea en la medida que los acuerdos políticos y económicos sean equilibrados para las partes y no humillantes concesiones como las que ofreció Obama en his time.

A review of the Russian context in this case shows that the record is not the best, Moscow strongly opposed the sanctions and pressures that at the time brought Iran to the negotiating table and ultimately yielded birth of the JCPOA during the Obama era. Moscow policy has always attempted to soften and condition sanctions against Iran while at all times minimizing the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. En la actualidad su posición no ha variado demasiado pero hay indicios de que un buen manejo sobre el asunto pudiera contar con el apoyo ruso de forma positiva, aunque el último decenio Moscú llevo adelante una estrategia ante the ONU tendiente a evitarher las alanciones tiempo que logró concesiones de gran importancia para sus intereses, por ejemplo: el levantamiento de las sanciones estadounidenses de no prohibir la venta de baterías antiaéreas rusas a Teherán, por lo cuál la posición de Moscú es incierta aunque pudiera servo positi en este What Biden intends to bail out the deal, and although Secretary of State Tony Blinken recently told reporters that it will be a long and complex process, Washington will try to ensure that the Iran does not shy away from the respect that is achieved. Therefore, the administration should now work to make Russia part of the solution and not part of the problem if Biden is to restore the deal with some modifications in exchange for a relaxation of existing sanctions.

The truth is that Russia’s policy of cooperation with the JCPOA in the past did not favor Washington during Obama’s time; Rather, it was in the direction of Moscow’s interests and this agreement ultimately paved the way for an expansion of Russian-Iranian relations that helped Putin secure concessions from Washington which strengthened Russia’s position as a regional counterweight. to the West. Such a scenario was not a mistake of former President Obama in offering and giving this level of concessions, it was a success of Moscow diplomacy who won the game and profited greatly from these events with Obama in the oval room.

Moscow and Tehran have shared common strategic goals to reduce Western influence in the Middle East, including a conjunction of mutual interests in Syria. It should not be forgotten that the same month that the JCPOA was reached, General Qassem Soleimani – killed in January 2020 by the Americans at the airport in Baghdad, Iraq – traveled to Moscow in what was probably the first step in planning Russian. -Iranian military intervention in Syria.

Recently, in early February, Iranian Parliament Speaker Muhammad Baker Qalibaf also visited Moscow. During his visit, described by Tehran as a “state mission”, Qalibaf conveyed a message of gratitude to Russia from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for his position in the JCPOA through the chairman of the Duma (Russian Parliament). In this message, the Supreme Leader of Iran thanked Russia for the right position it has taken in favor of Iran. “Although President Vladimir Putin did not meet with Qalibaf for timing reasons, Iran did so with Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. The official statement released after the meeting referred to future talks. with Washington to relaunch the JCPOA in which Patrushev and Qalibaf placed particular emphasis. Qalibaf’s trip made it clear that today, as in the past, Russia continues to play a double game with the West which has no no doubt to do with its national interests.

However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia was ready to work with the Biden administration, adding that Iran’s current refusal to comply with the JCPOA does not contradict its obligations. in the treaty. For Moscow, it is necessary to control that all activities carried out by Iran are under the strict control of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). However, the reality and the statements of IAEA officials show several shortcomings, even if they are not so irreconcilable to the point of not being able to settle them at a negotiating table.

Under the Trump administration, a May 2020 State Department compliance report concluded that “Iran’s failure to voluntarily declare nuclear material subject to IAEA safeguards would constitute a flagrant violation of the agreement. by Iran and a violation of Article III of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. (NPT) itself. This has precedents in the fact that in September 2005 the IAEA declared Iran guilty of non-compliance with the NPT and also adds to the State of Israel’s legitimate reasons for being wary of Tehran, even though Moscow does not see it and has been. let Biden know who has yet to respond on the point

Russia’s positions on respecting international law regarding nuclear regulatory institutions for the activity are extremely ambivalent. In fact, Russian foreign policy portrays Iran as a victim of terrorism and not as a promoter of the scourge. However, US sources in the Biden administration are confident those positions could change in future meetings between Washington and Moscow.

The hard fact is that at this very moment, as the Biden administration hopes to revive the deal with Iran, the past and recent history of Tehran’s conduct shows some interesting aspects that the US president and his team will need to do. take into account on various issues, in particular. in Iran’s role in the whole regional scenario that will impact the new talks to successfully bail out and bring to life a new treaty.

Reshaping the deal signed by Obama will require new considerations from Biden, but above all actions that naturally go well beyond his own and likely new deal. Afghanistan is a scenario that Americans cannot ignore. Neither Iraq, where the endemic corruption spurred by Tehran and the exceptional growth of its militias in cities like Baghdad, where mortar shells fell again this week in the “green zone” a few meters from the American embassy , promises to worsen the fragile situation generated by the Islamist group Kata’ib Hezbollah (a militia trained by Lebanese Hezbollah and armed by Iran which dominates 40% of the Iraqi capital), and likewise with the growth of other Shiite armed groups who have gained a foothold in Najaf, Kerbala and Basra by strengthening the Persian occupation of this Arab country.

All actions by Washington, Tehran and Moscow should be hailed for resolving a controversial move that threatens to spark an unprecedented nuclear race in the Gulf region, given that if an adviser to President Biden thinks or believes Saudi Arabia or one of the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (CCPG) would stand idly by allowing Iran to achieve the capacity to assemble a nuclear warhead in one of its missiles would make an irreparable strategic error .

Even though Washington insists on treating Moscow as a hostile power in Europe, the United States should dispense with certain prejudices and harmful influences from the European Union (EU). In recent years, Brussels has been characterized by a chain of erroneous decisions regarding American policies, as have been done by France and Germany, for example, and it should take up notions that favor a restart of relations with Russia for focus on building a unified strategy that strengthens Washington’s negotiating position. President Biden and his team should know this and give Russia a new role in the international community by making it clear that it wants to focus on unity and respect for each other’s interests and not on fruitless competition of supremacy of powers that the world today is unable to support. If they really want to do it, they can do it and for that there should no longer be any partial, gray and complex strategies between Washington and Moscow. This is the way out not only from the controversial nuclear issue with Iran, but also from various and many other crisis scenarios in different parts of the planet.

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