Sam has become a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic: what will its trajectory be?

Hurricane sam strengthened more than expected and is already progressing as a phenomenon of category four on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds rotating at 233 kilometers per hour.

The system is located closer and closer to the Lesser Antilles. Throughout the week, Central American authorities feared the cyclone could enter the waters of the Caribbean Sea. However, as the days go by, a more accurate track prediction has been established and it looks like Sam will not be plying the waters of the area.

From this Sunday, September 26, its vortex will stop pointing towards the Caribbean and will begin to move northwest. Forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimate that it will move all the time in the water in a northwesterly direction, passing at a distance of Puerto Rico, Haiti and Cuba, where they will not feel the effects.

If the project is realized, Sam will continue his crossing of the Atlantic, in the direction of Bermuda Islands (located near the Carolinas, USA).

This means it does not pose a risk to eastern Mexico, although it will be necessary to be aware of reports issued by state civil protection agencies throughout the week.

Currently, the cyclone is located very far from the national territory, 4,150 kilometers east of Quintana roo and 1,760 kilometers from the lesser antilles. Its gusts reach 270 kilometers per hour and it should stay too a major hurricane (categories three, four and five) at least until Thursday, September 20.

Sam is the 18th system to form in 2021 in the Atlantic Basin, out of a total of 19 cyclones. Plus, it’s the fourth biggest hurricane to hit this season, after Grace, Ida and Larry.

According to forecasts released by the National Meteorological Service (NMS), this year between three and four major hurricanes were expected in the Atlantic, and a maximum of 19 tropical cyclones, which are just those recorded so far.

Hurricane season 2021 in the Atlantic Ocean

The hurricane season in the Atlantic began on June 1 and the following systems were expected, according to forecasts from the National Water Commission (Conagua) SMN:

* Tropical storms: between 8 and 11.

* Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2): 4 to 5.

* Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 3 to 4.

Total: between 15 and 20 tropical cyclones.

The figure is higher than the average recorded between 1991 and 2020 for this region, of 14 systems. However, we are a long way from the 30 cyclones reported last year.

Names for the Atlantic: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henru, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindi, Nicolas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda.

The season will end on November 30.

Rain forecast for this Sunday September 22

This Sunday, September 22, heavy rains in 16 states of the country, including the The Valley of Mexico.

The largest accumulations are expected in Guerrero and Oaxaca, with registers of 75 to 150 millimeters. In addition, very heavy rainfall is forecast in Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Puebla, southern Veracruz, Tabasco and Chiapas, from 50 to 75 mm; and strong in Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Colima, State of Mexico, Mexico and Morelos, from 25 to 50 mm.

At the same time, showers will fall in Sonora, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, where 5.1 to 25 millimeters are forecast. And in the Baja California peninsula, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí and Tamaulipas will fall isolated rains that will not exceed five mm.

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