Scandals and struggles: Bolsonaro wastes its political capital in record time

RIO DE JANEIRO.- Two and a half months of government and
endless problems. Recently he has been at the palace of Plbadto, the Brazilian president,

Jair Bolsonaro

, seems to have squandered a large part of the political capital with which he came to power to solve self-generated scandals, appease internal struggles and respond to accusations. While the honeymoon is exhausting, the far right president is still not building a solid foundation of support for Congress and the economy is expecting a delayed confidence boost.

"There is a great disorientation, as if the government lived in a parallel reality, more interested in issues related to its program of conservative customs than in the real problems of the population: employment, health, security, education", he declared.
THE NATION Flavia Biroli, professor of political science at the University of Brasilia. "And social networks, Bolsonaro maintains a permanent level of tension, a polarization characteristic of the election campaign, which has opened too many fronts of conflict.It is difficult to predict what will happen, but stay on this bet makes the government very unstable, "he added.

The first violent blows against the Bolsonaro administration, who made the fight against corruption one of his main campaign flags, were revelations about his eldest son, Flavio, currently a senator and former deputy to Rio de Janeiro (2003-2018). . It was discovered that in recent years he had carried out suspicious financial transactions in cash and had engaged in his office the wife and mother of a former fugitive, now the head of one of the paramilitary militias most feared, linked to the badbadination of the leftist councilor Marielle. Franco last year.

Then came allegations of misappropriation of public election funds by the ruling Liberal Social Party (PSL) to "run candidates" in the last election. The accusations led to the dismissal of the Secretary General of the Presidency, Gustavo Bebianno, representative of the group and coordinator of the Bolsonaro campaign, amid a tangled crossroads of Twitter messages between, on the one hand, the official and, on the other hand, the president and one of his sons, Carlos, adviser in Rio de Janeiro. It is interesting to note that the ministers of the army, who currently hold eight of the 22 positions of the government and who are fighting over the politically ideological sector, have had to calm down (led by the Bolsonaro clan and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ernesto Araújo). and with neoliberal economists (led by the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes).

The controversies directly starring Bolsonaro are not lacking: from the famous obscene video that he published on social networks to criticize the excesses of the carnival to the claim that "democracy and freedom do not go unnoticed. exist only when the armed forces so wish, "his crusade against the press, which he accused of claiming" overthrow the government ". Again, those who controlled the damage and sought to avoid a greater impact of the President's untimely statements were the ministers of the army.

Many of his advisers also talked a lot. Damares Alves, Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights, sparked a strong rejection by emphasizing that "boys must wear blue clothes and girls in pink," said the minister of Education, Ricardo Velez. criticized when he proposed to school directors to film their students by singing the anthem in front of the flag to "value the national symbols" and read the slogan of the Bolsonaro campaign, "Brazil above all, God above all. Influenced by the government guru, anti-globalization philosopher Olavo de Carvalho, Foreign Minister Araújo has begun a questionable purge at the Itamaraty Palace, while Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sergio Moro , had to cancel the appointment. of a recognized expert in the field of security, because it was considered an "anti-weapon" by fanatical supporters of Bolsonaro.

In terms of legislation, the only conquest of the president so far is a controversial decree aimed specifically at making the purchase of weapons more flexible. And even the recent mbadacres in the schools of Suzano, in the state of São Paulo, have not brought the supporters of the president to rethink the policy of liberalization of armaments. Another important legislative initiative, a set of measures against corruption and insecurity, was for the moment blocked in Congress, while waiting for the ruling party to better articulate its support.

"The government has shown a lack of negotiating capacity with the other forces of Parliament, which is very worrying.It has not formed a coalition and depends on the ideological affinity or the the personal intervention of the president, even of the evangelical group, which he supported from one At the beginning of this administration, he began to distance himself from Bolsonaro because of the lack of dialogue with the government, "said Thomaz Favaro, an badyst at San Pablo's Control Risks consulting firm.

And in Congress, the ambitious pension reform designed by Guedes has not yet begun to be discussed. Markets believe that reform is essential to end the rising deficit and put the economy back on a solid growth path. Investors and financial badysts around the world were expecting Bolsonaro to fiercely defend this reform and other structural reforms at the Davos Forum, but the president has cheated the audience of the bill. international elite by placing the "rescue of values" and the "struggle" against the left "as axes.

"Investors are not interested in these discussions on peripheral issues, cultural or ideological warfare, they want to know if they can bet millions of dollars in the country.The economy of Brazil depends on this investment We must build confidence as soon as possible, otherwise it will be very difficult to overcome the situation later, in five or six months, "said Thiago de Aragão, director of the consulting firm Arko in Brasilia.

Some indicators already reflect early disappointment. After four consecutive highs since the October elections, the business confidence index set by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) dropped 0.7 points in February. "After the honeymoon period with the new government, the recovery of business confidence will be limited as long as economic uncertainty remains high," said Aloisio Campelo Jr., the FGV's Superintendent of Public Statistics.

In January, a Datafolha survey indicated that 65% of respondents thought that the new administration would be very good or good. However, at the end of last month, a survey by the MDA institute had drawn attention to the fact that 38.9% of respondents considered government performance as positive.

"I want to give a word of calm to those who voted and have confidence in the work of the Bolsonaro government, the government will not lose its course, it has a well defined north, we work hard, hard and hard to present results for our country, "he said. to guarantee by a video that the chief of staff, Onyx Lorenzoni, a few days ago, before the Congress begins to debate this week of the pension reform, once added the proposal to change the pension system of the army, who are reluctant to reduce their privileges.