Scientists warn of third wave of Covid-19 in Brazil

In Brazil, one of the countries most affected in the world by the coronavirus pandemic, the average number of cases has started to register a slight increase in recent weeks and American and Brazilian scientists are already warning of a third wave as early as June.

According to the newspaper Or balloonThe University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation has projected that Brazil could reach 750,000 deaths on Aug. 27, provided 95 percent comply with preventive measures. The same calculation estimates that as of September 21 – the end of winter – 973,000 deaths can be recorded, more than double the 436,000 deaths accumulated so far.

The delay in the vaccination process and the increase in circulation and social contacts could generate a third wave in Brazil, warn specialists.

According to the doctor and professor of applied mathematics at the University of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, Cláudio Struchiner, the calculation of his peers in the United States is “possible”, although there are still unknown variants, such as vaccines or new strains.

Brazil ended the hospital collapse which, mixed with the P1 variant or the Manaus strain, left a record number of deaths in March and April, even shifting the country’s demographic order, with more than deaths than births.

The country currently records an average of 1,900 deaths per day and projections indicate that on July 21, if there is a third wave, could return to a daily average of 3,300 deaths.

The same that the University of Washington reported was alerted last week by the federal laboratory Fiocruz, which is locally developing the AstraZeneca vaccine.

“Avoiding the third wave will depend a lot on vaccination, which is already effective in reducing deaths and hospitalizations. The ideal is to vaccinate 2 million people per day “said Ethel Maciel, professor at Federal University of Espirito Santo and PhD from Johns Hopkins University.

To date, Brazil has applied more than 57 million vaccines, although in recent weeks it has reported a sharp drop in the inoculation rate,