Scientists warn that climate change will be stronger than expected in 2012

A hundred scientists, collaborators of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), warned today that global warming in 2100 would be worse than expected in previous studies, with an increase in global temperature of 6 5 to 7 degrees Celsius for this year.

According to Efe, the report is based on simulations of several socio-economic scenarios developed by climatologists, oceanographers, atmospheric scientists and calculations, whose findings will contribute to the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts. on the climate change (IPCC) announced by 2021..

The results of the French team's investigations show a deterioration of the situation compared to the last report presented in 2012 which projected a temperature increase of 4.8 degrees Celsius in 2100, in the worst scenario simulated.

Scientists attribute to it a stronger reaction to the climate of increasing greenhouse gases than the previous study.

"According to the most pessimistic scenario (rapid economic growth fueled by fossil fuels), the increase in global average temperature would reach 6 or 7 degrees Celsius in 2100 and would exceed the previous estimates by more than one degree." said the scientists.

Only one of the socio-economic scenarios, that of a panorama of international cooperation that gives priority to sustainable development, would achieve the goals of warming to 2 degrees by this date.

The climate simulation models used have been applied in Europe and in the Indian Ocean, where experts have been able to more realistically represent phenomena such as heat waves or cyclones.

Data was also obtained through technical improvements, such as more accurate spatial resolution or modeling of different sectors of the climate system (ocean, atmosphere, glaciers, etc.).

In addition, simulations have made it possible to study with greater reliability the climatic conditions of France and Western Europe in recent years, where scientists have found that heat waves are becoming more and more important. more frequent and had evidently increased in recent decades.

They also confirm that, regardless of the socio-economic scenario used, heat waves will continue in the coming decades. (Télam)