Second Half just started, but Macri lose 4 to 0

"Here, there is a tango of three: the IMF, Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández. Of course, if the Fund decides not to continue to disburse, the situation will be chaotic. But the agency does not have much leeway to deprive the government of the remaining funds, because otherwise, it would start to look like the end of De la Rúa, "says Carlos Fara. For the consultant, the second period has just begun: "But Fernández wins 4 to 0".

In an interview with La Capital, the sociologist conducted a thorough review of the news, admits that the government made a miscalculation of sovereignty by encouraging polarization and predicts tensions between Fernández and Cristina.

"Is the game over?"

-The second half has just begun, but Alberto wins 4 to 0. Nothing is impossible, but it is unlikely that he can reverse the situation. There must be many conditions, but among them, the economic situation is calm. And we already know that nothing is happening. If people who did not vote and those who voted for other parties take the victory of the FF for granted, they have no incentive to go to Macri's rescue.

"The institutional future seems to depend on IMF responses. Is in agreement?

"Of course, but not only the Fund." Here, there is a tango of three: the IMF, Macri and Alberto. Of course, if the Fund decides not to continue to disburse, the situation will be chaotic. But the agency does not have much leeway to deprive the government of the remaining funds because otherwise they would look like the end of De la Rua. But the two presidential candidates must not play with fire: if Alberto has already won, he can be magnanimous in the win and Macri should be worthy in defeat.

"What should Macri do to stay in the countryside and not compromise governance?"

"The first thing to do is to stay calm, since a nervous leader, overwhelmed by events, has no chance. To break the links with Alberto or with the Peronist governors "who have betrayed" (in politics, everyone takes into account what suits him) is insane in view of the weakness created by the outcome of the Paso. Now, Macri is not the president: it is the candidate who lost by beating. All actors will see it with a mixture of pity and underestimation. If this is not part of this recognition, probably speed up the car in the sand and finish burying it even more.

– The government made a miscalculation of sovereignty by taking into account the polarization with Kirchner and not violating a third way that divides the Peronist vote?

-Yes The key was Sergio Mbada. If the 39% that Scioli took during the 2015 primary is added to the 8 or 9 points that Mbada had kept before taking off, he reaches the 48 that FF gets. Tigrense voters were mostly anti-Macri, but they did not want to fall into polarization. There was an opportunity to open a door for him, but the prejudices of macro-orthodoxy could do more. They have not finished understanding the game. In 2015, they did not want to close with Mbada because he was supposed to be reduced in the first round to 6%: he took 21% and became the third most voted party. from the history of Argentina.

– It surprises him that Macri has maintained the position in Peña, when from all sectors of power ask him to resign for months?

No Peña is the president's alter ego. This means that there is a symbiotic relationship between them. In any case, this should have changed with the crisis of September 2018, when the possibility of a change of cabinet was opened. But now it was too late. The process of joining the head of the administration with the number 1 takes a lot of time. The cure could be worse than the disease.

– Cristina's silence is an acceptance of her place in the countryside? Is it piantavotos for Fernández?

-Cristina understood that her best legacy is that the political project comes back to power, with or without it at the highest position. In this way, he will remain forever in the memory of his difficult vote. There will be permanent tensions. Alberto will not be a puppet, but he may not have full autonomy. Letting it drive during the campaign is one thing, but it will also manage the conceptual differences with the most radical wing of the FdT. We can decipher enough when the cabinet will be known. A priori, this shows that he is aware of what he must avoid. For example, this corruption is suspected in public works or you want to condition justice for its causes.

– Does Rodríguez Larreta have the conditions of a political leader to carry out postmacism?

"Absolutely yes." It's much more political than Macri and Peña. He has prosapias for family inheritance, drunk in developmentalism. A character who has crossed several teams knows better what it is. Although he does not have a charisma, he has the attributes of a political shipowner and he is one of those who have no prejudices to sit down and talk to him. anybody. It could lead a new change, with another conceptual logic. And in addition, these attributes are recognized as theirs and others. That's the key to building.

– How curious to be the champion of the world of communication and that the freshness of Vidal ends with a layer of film.

– Contemporary communication tools are double-edged weapons. On the one hand, it seems as though they are approaching, but much of the virtuality can also get away. Voters around the world have been warned / trained in political marketing for 20 years through media exposure. Ergo, the wizard's trick is noticed and the magic is lost. This is why the key attribute in the current policy must be genuine. The "marketed" generates mistrust, distance. People tell us all the time that many candidates do not have spontaneous speech, but rather seem to repeat what a "brief" says.

"What will Lavagna do on October 27th, does it have a chance to add more wills?

-You can add to the October 27 elections. Here, the key is the segment of those who voted for Macri by option, not by conviction. If they consider that the match is over, they are more likely to vote for what they really liked at the time, but they felt that the vote had been lost. Now, with the results defined, another step opens. All right, he resisted polarization with few resources and no charisma.