Seven months before the presidential elections, the world threatens Daniel Ortega with sanctions if he does not make reforms for electoral transparency

Daniel Ortega maintains the electoral apparatus intact, despite popular and international pressure he has been under since 2018, first to advance the elections, then to make reforms leading to competitive and fair elections on the set constitutional date: November 5 of this year. And until now, there is no sign that he intends to change it.

This electoral apparatus allowed Daniel Ortega, according to the Nicaraguan political opposition, be re-elected for fraud to two consecutive terms after returning to power in 2007.

Electoral control is carried out, mainly, through magistrates and officials loyal to the regime at the electoral tribunal, the almost absolute limitation to electoral observation, the inhibition of real opposition and the allocation of votes at convenience. from Ortega. Election data has not been public or verifiable since 2008.

However, next May, the deadline set by the General Assembly of Organization of American States (OAS) in October of last year for the State of Nicaragua to implement electoral reforms that lead to free and fair elections in November this year.

The resolution, approved by 20 votes in favor, 2 against and 12 abstentions, requires, among other conditions, the restructuring of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), dominated by the ruling party, and the participation of international observers.

“They know things are going well,” said professor and political analyst Edgard Parrales, a former priest who in the 1980s was Nicaraguan ambassador to the OAS. “There is only this month of April for the deadline that the OAS gave Ortega to expire. The application of the Democratic Charter is in progress. And with the application of the Democratic Charter, there are serious consequences ”.

According to Parrales, the application of the Democratic Charter would lead to some countries sever diplomatic relations with Nicaragua and the country’s trade agreements with the United States, the rest of the Central American countries, Chile, Panama and the Dominican Republic could be suspended. “They are waiting for what happens. Whether Ortega meets the May deadline or not, ”he said.

The siege against the Nicaraguan regime has begun to end. March 25 six renowned US senators introduced a bipartisan bill called “Strengthening Nicaraguan adherence to the conditions of electoral reform (RENACER)”, which seeks to put pressure on Ortega so that, on this occasion, the elections are free, fair and transparent.

The project, promoted by the democrat Robert Menéndez and the republican Marco rubio, broadens the spectrum of surveillance and sanctions against the regime and its allies which already contained two US laws known as the Nica Act and Magnitsky Act, which from July 2018 to December 2020 resulted in sanctions against 27 people linked to Daniel Ortega, including his wife, Rosario Murillo, and his children Rafel, Laureano and Juan Carlos Ortega Murillo. Companies and a state institution were also sanctioned: the national police.

The new law, which international policy experts say could be approved with broad consensus within 45 days, mentions the Nicaraguan military, media run by the Ortega Murillo family and relatives, as well as those standing in the way. free elections. It also calls on Canada and the European Union (EU) to take concerted action on sanctions and monitoring the funds available to the regime.

“RENACER is very tough, it will close all international financial spaces”, Parrales says who believes the law will be approved sooner than experts predict. “To me they won’t approve it in 45 days or in May as others say, but they will approve it now because it wouldn’t make sense to remove it after May. The point is to remove it now to force them to talk about reforms ”.

In this same line, MEPs also called on Daniel Ortega to carry out electoral reforms, warning that pressure will increase for this to happen. In mid-March, members of the European Parliament’s Committee on Central American Affairs virtually met with human rights defenders, members of civil society organizations and Nicaraguan opponents to discuss the issue. . Nicaraguan Ambassador to the European Union Irana Venerio was invited to the event but did not attend.

“This message must be clear and clear: we are not going to whitewash electoral fraud if the conditions are not right for democratic and free elections where all the opposition has more opportunities to participate in freedom,” said Soraya Rodríguez MEP at the meeting. .

“The weeks that come now are decisive for the electoral process to be credible, the government must move forward with its commitments such as the release of political prisoners, the end of the harassment of critics and opponents, and allow the return of international organizations to the country. and finally, to guarantee that all parties can participate in the elections under the same conditions, ”declared Alicia Homs, representative of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party in the European Parliament.

A survey carried out by the Costa Rican firm Cid Gallup last January, gives 25% of the intention to vote for the Sandinista Front, the party led by Daniel Ortega, 13% for other political options and shows that 62% of those questioned do not express sympathy for any of the political groups. This same survey reveals that 65% of those consulted are willing to vote and one of the reasons to do so would be that there will be free elections next November.

However, so far, there is no indication that Daniel Ortega intends to dismantle the electoral apparatus he used to gain full control of the Nicaraguan state and remain in power for more than 14 consecutive years.

“Ortega plays with time”, says Edgard Parrales, “taking the time to see if he takes advantage of something that is inevitable for him: sitting down to discuss electoral reforms to prepare for a clean election. This has embellished him with all this combo of (repressive) laws that he has been publishing since September of last year, monopolizing civil society from every possible angle. Try to sit down and speak in the best possible way from their point of view.

For the analyst, in addition to the international headquarters, he considers that the Nicaraguan opposition must unite to force free elections. “The opposition should unify as much as possible. If the two blocks are joined, a compact and overwhelming presence is shown. Progress is being made in a certain way, because there are talks ”.

Parrales recognizes that the worst-case scenario is a Daniel Ortega closed to the restoration of rights and freedoms required by a democratic electoral process. However, he believes it could be a fatal alternative for himself, his family and loved ones.

“There are signs of discontent in the military and this discontent could lead them to abandon ship. It would be fatal to him. Ortega leaves the stage and the others accept that the whole process of change underway will take place, that the new political vision of the country will come into effect: democracy, social justice, freedom, autonomy of powers, rule of law, and that the military , instead of perishing, enter the game, ”he said.

“I see Ortega cornered and if he does not react, he can lose everything”, adds. “Not only him, he can lose the game. In a democratic fair, a Sandinista front that accepts the rules of the game can survive as the Communists did in Spain. If Ortega persists, he will lose everything, he will lose his Beatriz and his portrait ”.

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