sharp increase in cases in the city and province of Buenos Aires last week

After December 9 Several events have occurred which, added together, may have determined this outcome. On the one hand, the return of tourists from the Coast and other destinations after the long weekend. Although there was a test operation at the entrance to the City, their effectiveness is not entirely clear: on the one hand, because they depend on the goodwill of the tourist, to approach and test effectively; on the other hand, because an infected person does not necessarily have to test positive if they have not yet developed symptoms.

The long weekend joined the Rive fan celebrationsr for the anniversary of the Copa Libertadores triumph against Boca, in 2018. And also, on December 11, the mass rallies in front of the Congress where the Chamber of Deputies gave a semi-sanction to the legalization of abortion. On the other hand, the wake of Maradona, and despite the recalled lack of control, does not seem to have had a noticeable impact on the numbers. It was November 27 and in the days that followed nobody registered increase important. Although it is true that symptoms can occur up to ten days after coming into contact with the virus.

In the province of Buenos Aires, last week, there was 16834 cases, when the week immediately before there had been 9.401. Bugle He consulted the authorities on the current value of the Buenos Aires R at this time (the index which reports the exponential speed at which the Covid is replicating) and found a surprising answer: “We are not following the R” In other words, until recently it has been followed, but apparently no longer. In the city they have not yet reported what is the current R.

Both in the capital and in the suburbs, the R had fallen below 1 in the past two months. This means that an infected person infects less than one person (in statistical terms). If the R is 0.9, it means that ten infected infect 9. Therefore, the lower the R, a slower rate of contagion to the virus. Monitoring this data is essential to anticipate possible regrowth.

AMBA data is different from national data: in fact, at national level, last week 12 percent less of cases a month ago: 42,222 infections, against 47.553 during the week of November 22 to 28. In the week of December 6 to 12, an apartment of 34,690 cases.

These data are known when it is expected that russian vaccine against the coronavirus reaches Argentina. In the event that it does land within the announced deadlines and the Anmat gives its recommendation to approve and apply it, the rare 300,000 doses which would be the first to arrive they would not be the solution either before a possible regrowth.

The president of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases and presidential adviser, Omar Sued, had already expressed a few days ago his concern at the recurring concentrations of people on the public highway. But above all he underlined the greatest danger posed by social gatherings without proper care.

Another sign of concern was the summit of health ministers convened by Chief of Staff Santiago Cafiero on Tuesday. Although the focus of this table, given the balance, is more focused on the intention to get the contagions issue back on the agenda than to concrete measures to counter them.

The least data is that for the moment the number of occupied intensive care beds seems under control, in the order of the 3,500 places. Although it is also known that this request comes with the time limit imposed by the logic of the disease: complications in coronavirus cases usually arise some time after they have arisen.

Now the worry goes through Christmas and New Year evenings, when most Argentines get together with family and friends. Hence the official insistence on the importance of people respecting isolation during the days leading up to these meetings and to maintain preventive measures during meal and toast hours.

PS