Soybean price jumped to USD 516 per tonne in the international market

In Chicago’s benchmark market operations to date, there have been significant increases in the price of soybeans, due to the slow harvest in Brazil, which is the slowest pace in the past 10 years, and the low stocks for the current season.

Soybean contracts due next month rose about 2% and were trading at $ 516.62. For its part, the March position of corn has increased by $ 1.08 and is trading at $ 218. Finally, wheat contracts maturing in March rose by $ 0.64 and were trading at $ 244.62.

In this regard, regarding stocks, the Rosario Stock Exchange stated: “Although the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts record soybean production for the 2021/2022 season in this country, demand would also be very high, so that final stocks would increase only slightly and remain close to historic lows “.

Regarding operations in the local market, at the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), soybeans delivered until March 15 reached a purchase value of USD 330 per tonne. In contrast, the price offered for short delivery maize was US $ 205 per tonne and the supply of contract wheat fell to $ 2015 per tonne.

In our country, the thick countryside is going through a topical moment to stand out. On the one hand, the high international prices which are maintained and which are exchanged at maximums of between six and eight years and, on the other hand, the rains that occurred during a good part of January and February which allowed the levels of humidity to recover in the country. fields and stop crop deterioration.

In this context, Experts from the Rosario Stock Exchange projected that the gross value of the soybean and corn crop would reach USD 25,354 million, almost USD 6,686 million more than that achieved in the 2019/20 cycle, despite the fact that the production estimate is expected to be less than nearly 5 million tonnes.

“This internal value of soybean and corn production contributes considerably to the national product and, moreover, contributes greatly to the balance of the country’s external accounts, since together these two complexes represent about 40% of the value of Argentina’s exports” , they commented on the BCR.

Exports

This will also have a positive impact on future export earnings. The economist of the Ieral de la Méditerranée Foundation, Juan Manuel Garzon, he said that “Due to the better production outlook and the new price level, the contribution of agricultural dollars is high this year; the question is how high“. In this sense, the specialist has constructed different scenarios, which provide that the estimate of exports and prices are maintained, as well as the rise or fall of these variables.

For Garzón, if international prices remain at a level of around 500 USD per tonne for soybeans and 230 USD per tonne for maize and their respective productions, they are respectively 48 and 47 million tonnes, added to their sub -respective products and other crops such as wheat, barley and sunflower, 33,919 million dollars could enter the country, 33.9% more than in 2020, or about 8,589 million dollars.

The latter is the base case scenario for Garzón, who also sees 5 more scenarios as probable than the 15 he constructed, projecting prices and quantities exported to decline. The most pessimistic scenario predicts an 8% drop in volume and 10% in value and estimates shipments at $ 27,864 million, which in any case would represent a 10% expansion from 2020, to $ 2,534 million additional entered. The most optimistic are forecasting 8% higher volume than the base case and 10% higher prices and estimate shipments at $ 40,565 million, 60% more than last year.

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