Spain, between the agreement and the new elections

With regard to the general elections of April 28, Spain arrived with certainty: it was going to form a coalition government between the forces of left and center. The interim president, Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), achieved a clear triumph that seemed to lead him to the continuity of power. Thus, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party won 28% of the vote, well above the People's Party (PP).

However, for Sanchez to be ratified as president, he needs a parliamentary majority that he does not possess today. Therefore, to form a specific government seats United Podemos and other regional forces.

Nearly two months of these votes, forming a coalition seemed impossible. Everything was heading for new elections. Until last week, it was like that, but yesterday there was a small movement: the leader of Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, resigned from his post of minister on the condition that Sánchez calls a "government collaborator" with the leaders of his party.

"I must not be sorry for the PSOE so that there is no left-wing coalition government, whether or not to be in the Council of Ministers will not be a problem, as long as it is not a problem. there will be no more veto and the presence of United We in the government may be proportional to the votes, "explained Iglesias.

In 2019, the Spaniards voted in municipal, autonomous, European and legislative elections, which left them exhausted and without the courage to return to the polls.

It is the air that is breathed in the country and the politicians have taken note of it.

The post-election negotiations of April 28 were successful, but Sánchez accused Iglesias of being selfish because he had unconditionally asked for his entry into the Council of Ministers or Vice-Presidency.

In this sense, the President of the Government has clarified the deep differences with the churches on sensitive issues such as Catalonia to prohibit him entry into the small table of the next government.

This mistrust reduces the chances of making the investiture and forms a coalition government between the PSOE and United We Can. Thus, it became clear that political issues were relegated to personal, partisan, and indirect calculations. In short, what has been seen in recent weeks is cross-pliers and inconsistencies in the formation of the future government.

To crown the complex panorama, Pedro Sánchez considered a few days ago to break the negotiations with Unidas Podemos. Things have changed tangibly since April: the party led by Iglesias has become the main and natural partner of the Socialists in the negotiations for the formation of a progressive executive. Today, this path seems to be guided by the resignation of the leader of Unidas Podemos, in order to reach an agreement.

Risk for the left

United We can be excited about their entry into the government. They want relevant portfolios because they see it as an opportunity to gain momentum, rebuild the party and strengthen the figure of their leader.

It is likely that repeated elections will hit the left hard, potentially losing wealth, which could have significant consequences for the center-left.

From a rational point of view, the logic would be that PSOE and United We could implement all the strategies to reach an agreement, because during the general elections of last April, the left had not achieved the expected results.

Election expectations before a possible repeat of the elections are not the best for United We can. But they could also be threatened by the possibility that the new political space of Íñigo Errejón – ex-Podemos – will eventually give the final boost to Iglesias.

According to the alleged specialists, the most favored would be the Plus Madrid, the party of Errejón, which could bring together about fifteen deputies, while the United Podemos could get 13 seats.

On the other hand, it will be necessary to see how the demobilization factor plays out. If there are new elections, will the influx at the polls diminish? And if so, who will benefit? People may blame some executives for not having agreements during these two months.

Another possible route to the Psoe-Podemos coalition is Psoe-Ciudadanos, although this union seems to be an oxymoron. Socialist political leaders and their bases hesitate to agree with Albert Rivera.

This would be an option for a coalition without churches, but the key of Ciudadanos can not be used and opens no door.

It was the landscape of Spanish politics until last week.

The incumbent president refused to integrate Iglesias into his coalition government because of his stance on the Catalan independence movement and, basically, because some partners in the European community would have seen him negatively. "I can not afford the luxury of having a vice president of government who, out of loyalty, will only want to look otherwise or shut up," Sánchez said.

Investiture

There will be two sessions to invest the president, Tuesday and Thursday. In the first, Sanchez, the most voted candidate, will present his candidacy for the presidency. If he manages to reach the 176 accessions, this will be confirmed. Otherwise, the whole process will run until July 25, during the second session, during which the Constitution guarantees any candidate who has obtained a more affirmative vote than the negative votes to be elected president.

If no nomination is made during one or the other of the sessions, everything indicates that there will be a new opportunity in September or elections in November. Earlier there will be an executive officer, it will be better for Spain at the institutional level as this will endow the country with governance and stability.

There are still hours to reach an agreement.

Otherwise, there will be elections. This will give more oxygen to rights.

Pablo Iglesias and a surprise and conditions

The resignation yesterday of United We, Pablo Iglesias' leader, to occupy the vice-presidency or ministry of Pedro Sanchez's government was as surprising as it was convincing in the face of the message he had sent to the interim president.

"I do not have to be an excuse for that there is no government of a left-wing coalition," Iglesias said in communicating his decision through social networks.

With this measure, Sanchez has virtually no excuse for refusing a negotiation with a view to incorporating United Podemos.

For his resignation to be effective, Iglesias made certain conditions, namely that Sanchez can not veto other leaders of his party and that the presence of his people in the government is proportional to the number of votes obtained in the last elections of April 28 . when he got a little over 14% of the votes.

In addition, Iglesias believes that Podemos Podemos should take up to five portfolios of the Council of Ministers, giving priority to those dealing with social areas such as labor and social security, finance or climate change and the ecological transition.

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Printed edition

The original text of this article was published on 21/07/2019 in our print edition.