Spain: Sanchez prepares to call elections …

From Madrid

The expression of a drama on the face of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, in his place at the National Congress House has said everything. Spanish legislators approved all the amendments to the general budgets presented by the Catalonian sovereignist forces. They must therefore be returned to the government. This means that they will not be supported and that the Socialist President will call early elections, as he has suggested several times in case this scenario would have been presented.

At the end of the vote, Finance Minister María Jesús Montero said the president had already been clear about the consequences of the non-approval of the national accounts. For his part, the Minister of Development and Secretary of the Organization of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers Party), José Luis Ábalos, said that there would be "news soon" on the elections. In the country's media, it was announced that the official announcement would be made Friday at the end of the Cabinet meeting.

Since last week, negotiations with the Generalitat of Catalonia for the establishment of a dialogue to continue the conflict in this autonomous region have been initiated and the possibility to obtain their support for approve the accounts of the state has been reduced. that the announcement of an early call to the elections would be the next step for Pedro Sánchez.

The dates that are mixed are the 14th or the 28th of April. The difference between the two points of the calendar are the Easter holidays, the 23 and 24 of the same month. The government is leaning towards the second option, with the aim of achieving a positive outcome for the regional and European elections that will take place on May 26th.

After the vote in the National Congress, the socialist government came out of the opposition to prevent "the most social budgets in the history of Spain". Finance Minister Maria Jesus Montero said that the country's law was trying to prevent progress and that the economic recovery was reaching the family, in reference to the refusal of the People's Party and the citizens to support the subsidy for the unemployed over 5 years old. 52, the increase of the minimum wage (SMI) or the payment badistance of the electricity service, which included the general budgets.

In any case, the increase of the SMI, the pensions (1.6% and 3% of the minimum), and the increase of the salaries of the public agents will not be affected, since they were approved by decree, then ratified by the Spanish Congress.

Opposition forces, Partido Popular (PP) and Ciudadanos (Cs), were the first to call for the convening of elections after the failure of the budget vote. His rejection of the national accounts of the socialist government was not new. On the one hand, they had refused to validate the increase in public spending that would reduce the state deficit to 1.8% of gross domestic product, compared with 1.3% of the last year of the previous government, led by Mariano Rajoy. On the other hand, and from the first day of Sanchez's administration, they accused the Socialist leader of accepting budgets with the separatists of Catalonia, in exchange for various concessions which, according to their leaders, could lead to the fracture of the country. 'Spain. .

The Catalan separatist parties represented in Congress have accused the Sánchez government of the failure of the budgets. In their case, they mentioned the end of the negotiations ordered by the Socialist Executive after the controversy that had generated the idea of ​​including a mediator in the dialogue sponsored by the Spanish government with the sovereignist forces of Catalonia. "We had almost everything connected" to "create a framework for dialogue," said Joan Tardà, of the Esquerra Republicana party. For her part, Miriam Nogueras, MPPat (European Democratic Party of Catalonia), said that "the fear of the far right was eating them (in the government) as well as the internal pressures", referring to the voices of the Socialist party criticizing the dialogue with the separatists and the appeal of the People's Party, Citizens and Vox, which brought together 50,000 people in Madrid last Sunday.

The Sanchez government leaves behind one of its worst weeks and will leave open one of the most uncertain election scenarios of recent years. Although recent polls have not read precisely the will of the electorate, the political reality has already shown substantial changes.

One of the most significant is the appearance of the far right Vox. His nationalist and conservative speech subtracted the votes of the People's Party and some other citizens. After obtaining 11% of the votes in the Andalusian elections, he will have his first electoral test at the country level.

The PP, which now heads the young Pablo Casado, will check the level of loss that could cause them the appearance of new competitors, the radicalization of his speech against the Catalan independence movement and sensitive issues such as immigration.

We can face the generals plunged into an internal crisis since Íñigo Errejón, one of its founding members, announced that he would run for the elections of the Community of Madrid with another political party. . More Madrid, a break from Ahora Madrid, the mark of the mayor of Madrid, Manuela Carmena, coming to the city hall to join the formation led by Pablo Iglesias.

Ciudadanos, another party that has broken into the political system in recent years, will be one of the best places for the next elections. The force led by Albert Rivera has shown a clear increase in his intention to vote and could become the key to a future socialist or popular government. The variation that he has shown in his speech over the last few years allows him to agree with one or the other.

As for socialism, should go to the polls without being able to respect its strategy: approve a budget with the largest expenditure since the time of Zapatero, which would serve as a showcase for the election campaign. In all cases, certain measures have been implemented and, because of their relevance, can be taken into account during the vote. For example, the promotion of laws on gender equality, the exhumation of the remains of the dictator Francisco Franco and the initiative of dialogue with the sovereignist forces of Catalonia which, after recent events, will give a result difficult to qualify.

What seems clear is that, despite the emergence of new players, the next government will be a coalition and will only show two possible fronts, one left or the other at right.