Stability of the exchanges, agreement with the opposition and "legacy", the keys of the message of Lacunza and Sandleris

Finance Minister Hernán Lacunza tried in his first presentation to the portfolio to convey a message of calm. The official did not announce any new measures and put all the focus on dollar stability. This is what he and the president of the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, have pointed out. The government will give priority defend an exchange rate around 60 pesosafter the jump last week.

1) stability

"The president has given me a central mandate: guarantee the stability of the exchange rate as the first-order goal of this election period, "said Lacunza.

He further explained: "The exchange rate has long been greater than its equilibrium value. (…) This is what the candidate who obtained the highest number of voice during the primaries.It is not necessary to increase the exchange rate. "

The president of the Central Bank said the monetary authorities would intervene to prevent the rise of the currency. "There is a consensus that the exchange rate is very competitive and that's why we have seen the Central Bank intervene more actively last week and will continue to do so"We are convinced that it is very important to reduce the nominal volatility that the economy has been facing last week," said Sandleris. This is one of our goals. "

Both referred to statements made by Alberto Fernández on Thursday. That day, the presidential candidate of the Frente de Todos said that "the dollar at 60 dollars has a very reasonable value."

Shortly after the messages, the big dollar started trading with a rise of about 50 cents from Friday's value. The increase could have been worse given the slide of Monday's Argentine bonds on Wall Street and the country risk escalation to levels close to 1,900 points.

2) Inflation

The government believes that the fight against inflation is more the responsibility of the central bank than the economic cabinet. Sandleris, in this sense, reinforced the continuity of the policy of control of monetary aggregates agree with the IMF. The BCRA will continue to dry the peso market, with high interest rates that will be defined in the Leliq Daily Tenders Call.

"The monetary aggregate system has already proven effective in re-anchoring expectations after turbulence episodes," said Sandleris. But he admitted that "Inflation will unfortunately increase in August and September". Economists expect an increase in between 4 and 5 percent per month.

Lacunza is aware of the need to stabilize the dollar to avoid further price increases. "To allow, in this context, greater volatility (of the dollar) or an upward trend would only add uncertainty and inflationary pressures," he said.

3) The agreement with the IMF

Lacunza and Sandleris both stated that the budgetary and monetary objectives agreed with the Fund will be achieved.

The new finance minister said the recovery measures launched last week would not jeopardize the primary budget balance (before paying interest on the debt). "They are self-financed by the higher incomes we will have over the remaining four and a half months of the year," Lacunza said.

The Treasury considered that the fiscal cost of the measures (subsidies to UVA credit holders, arising from the minimum tax on non-taxable income, elimination of VAT on foodstuffs, among others) would be an additional burden. tax cost of $ 59,986 millionor 0.3% of GDP. And that will be compensated by a additional collection of $ 54,841 million (0.2% of GDP), which is explained by the fact that the higher the inflation, the higher the VAT and other taxes related to the nominality of the economy.

Sandleris, meanwhile, said the monetary policy targets, which the BCRA had modified to be achieved over the two-month period from July to August, remain in effect.

The IMF sent a cautious message. In his first badysis of the Argentine economy since the primary elections, he said that a team would conduct this review in the coming days and that she "In permanent dialogue with the authorities". Contrary to what happened on other occasions, there was no explicit support for last week's measures or Tuesday's message. The Fund must approve a disbursement of $ 54 billion in mid-December. The government is confident that this guarantee will come.

4) The appeal to the opposition

Lacunza's message has focused on appealing to opposing spaces to bring some certainty to the markets, in the badumption – corroborated by these days – that financial instability breaks into daily life.

"The president summoned all the candidates to preserve stability against the electoral ambition. He asked me to summon the economic advisers of all the spaces to agree on certain basic conditions, and then to compete, "said Lacunza.

The first to answer was Roberto Lavagna. "Our technicians are available to provide opinions and proposals for stabilization purpose."

On the front of everyone, the answer was fast. Economists in this space consulted raised doubts. "There is no measure to increase tax revenue or top up the reserves to make up for the larger imbalances.We will see if there is a specific call regarding this call," TN.com said. ar, the former president of the Central Bank and member of the Todos Front. Alejandro Vanoli

5) "inheritance"

Lacunza mentioned the transition twice.

"We have a lot of arguments to be able to go ahead and guarantee the tranquility of the Argentineans in this electoral process and bequeath to the next mandateRegardless of the choice of polls, the important thing is that the starting point of the next president has a consistent and sound platform to regain the growth recorded eight years ago, at least to the loss of Argentina.

And he insisted: "He l & # 39; heritage For the next mandate, for the president chosen by the citizens on October 27th, who, I hope, will accompany us in the vote so that President Macri renews his mandate, there will be a more solid platform to mobilize and aspire to this growth. argued that it cost us a lot in this first term "

The reference to the "government" of the next government, whether it be Alberto Fernández or possibly a reinstated Mauricio Macri, is not less . Monday, when he entered the fifth Los Abrojos to meet the president, Lacunza had on his lap a folder with notes, which circulated on social networks. It read a catastrophic scenario, with a three-digit exchange rate and inflation, as opposed to a "legacy" that Macri could leave to his successor.

Macri, taking the oath, asked him to generate "all possible bridges and channels of dialogue". With no more budget space for new concrete measures, Lacunza and Sandleris's coordinated message seemed to move in this direction.