Strait of Ormuz: why the big Chinese ships disappear mysteriously in the Persian Gulf (and reappear a few days later)

A "Bermuda Triangle" in the Persian Gulf?

Since last May, large ships crossing the Strait of Ormuz mysteriously disappear from global positioning systems.

This has nothing to do with oil tankers who have been attacked in this region or with those captured by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards during the summer.

These are big ships that "get lost" and usually appear at the same place – or outside the Gulf – several days later. A large part of them originate or go to China, but not always.

This week, an Iranian ship – the same one that was held by the British navy in Gibraltar in July – disappeared from radar off the Syrian coast in the Mediterranean.

"Since May, this is happening all the time," said Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, a global oil tanker monitoring site.

According to Madani and other experts consulted by BBC Mundo, there is a new trend in this region of the world and in other nearby seas.

Last June, a small Chinese oil tanker approached the Persian Gulf after 19 days of travel: it disappeared from the radar for nearly a week, then reappeared at the same spot where its trace had been lost.

Before and after this date, other large ships disappeared trackers for several days, also in the same area.

In fact, according to data from TankerTrackers.com, in the last 20 months, the five ships that regularly sail between China and the Persian Gulf made about 50 stops in the ports of the region, but 28 times they disappeared for days, even weeks.

According to the monitoring site, all cases had a common factor: ships, regardless of flag, entered Iran.

The GPS of the boats

Rockford Weitz, director of marine studies at Tufts University, tells BBC Mundo that, to ensure safe navigation, large commercial vessels transmit their position every few seconds using a method. called Automatic Identification System (AIS).

This allows other vessels to know their position – and thus prevent collisions – and can be monitored at any time, as in the case of airplanes.

And, according to the expert, although there are other methods such as radars or satellites, AIS messages, which contain information such as the name of the ship, its location and its speed , remain the most common method of tracking merchant ships.

"The regulations of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) require that AIS messages be transmitted by any major merchant ship," he said.

However, James R. Holmes, naval strategy expert at the United States Naval College, points out that, although international conventions require that ships do not deactivate their positions, "there is no international sheriff who manages the waves to monitor such offenses. "

"This became a problem during the US Navy's collisions in the Pacific in 2017. One of the findings of the investigation was that our ships were not transmitting their positions and, therefore, did not transmit their positions. were not visible, merchant ships, "he told BBC Mundo.

Holmes thinks that, although this strategy has been frequently put into practice by military ships, it is more rare that it occurs in commercial fleets.

However, he says, it is very difficult to control.

"The sea is a vast plain without roads where a ship can go astray if it decides not to actively inform others, but a ship can" darken "simply by turning off its transponder and its other electronic programs, such as radio communications, "he adds.

Madani, for its part, points out that in some parts of the world, such as the South China Sea, high congestion of maritime traffic can result in the temporary loss of a ship's signal.

"But what we see in the Persian Gulf is different, and we are sure that the ships here will stop transmitting their signal intentionally," he says.

But how do you explain that many ships in the Persian Gulf are lost trackers?

"Ghost ships"

In mid-May, the Pacific Bravo, a supertanquero whom they say belongs to the Bank of Kunlun (of Chinese origin and sanctioned by the United States for allegedly cooperating with the Iranian government), reappeared in the Persian Gulf. a few days after losing all the radars.

It was then that TankerTrackers.com revealed satellite images that were beginning to explain what was happening (and what many experts have already badumed): the ship was in fact loading oil into Iran.

"Since the US sanctions against Iran came back into force, we have seen an increase in this phenomenon," added Madani.

Last May, the Trump government again sanctioned Iranian oil exports, Tehran's main source of revenue, as part of the pressure exerted by the United States. of the nuclear agreement in 2018.

"To avoid US sanctions, the tankers who will accuse Iran will no longer transmit their positions, they are doing it on purpose," said Madani.

In other cases, according to the expert, it is the Iranian oil tankers themselves who would stop transmitting their data, as apparently happened this week with which it was lost off the Syrian coast.

"We have reliable information that the tanker is on its way to Tartous, Syria," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote on Twitter last week, two days before ship.

In fact, the US Treasury Department has included him in his "blacklist" after being badured that he had "reliable information" about the fact that Adrian Darya (ex -Grace 1) was transporting oil to Syria, in defiance of sanctions against Tehran and the government of Bashar al-Assad.

The alternatives

Although under international law, it is not illegal to buy or transport Iranian oil and White House sanctions are unilateral, many international companies tend to respect them to avoid potential penalties in Washington.

However, according to Bjarne Schieldrop, chief badyst of the Norwegian financial group SEB, this does not mean that these companies or Iran itself are looking for other solutions.

"I do not think we would have been clear about the kind of methods that Iran would use to circulate and continue to export its oil, but turning off the transponders is a natural choice," Schieldrop told BBC Mundo.

According to the oil market badyst, undergoing US sanctions for so many years, Iran has perfected "the art of continuing to export oil."

"The export of oil by Iraq has often been mentioned as another path discovered by Iran, but it is something we have not been able to confirm," he said.

Madani, meanwhile, indicates that his company has detected other means: apparently, Chinese oil tankers have changed their name to deceive their bearings and, on other occasions, they meet Iranian tankers in some places and do it in the open sea. The oil exchange.

Last July, according to the data and images of Trankerstracker, a Chinese freighter, the Tian Ying Zuo was found near Penang Island, Malaysia, with a cargo ship of the National Petroleum Company of Iran that had stopped to transmit his data. signs.

"The number of Iranian tankers doing this is increasing, because Iran must one way or another get rid of the oil that it receives so that its production does not stagnate," he said. Madani said.

In fact, a SEB report last May already provided that from the entry into force of the sanctions, "an increasing amount" of Iranian oil exports would seek to pbad "under the radar of sanctions." .

And that would bring him closer – inevitably – to China.

China and Iran

And China is the largest importer of crude oil in Iran.

In fact, sales to the Asian nation last year exceeded 29.3 million tonnes, or 585,400 barrels a day, according to customs data obtained by the Reuters news agency.

This amount represents about 6% of Beijing's total oil imports. Experts, such as Schieldrop, believe that China can not, nor does it politically, stop so easily buying Iranian oil.

"China has clearly stated that the United States exceeded its legal limits, that it violated the rights of Beijing to import oil from Iran and that they had not the right to impose such restrictions on China, "he said.

In May, the Chinese Foreign Ministry officially complained to Washington of its decision to end the exemptions for Iranian oil imports and announced that its energy cooperation with Tehran would remain "legal and reasonable".

"I think it was important for Beijing to continue importing oil from Iran to emphasize its legal right to do so," Schieldrop said.

"China, the world's largest importer of oil (imports increase by 10% annually), can not accept the ban on buying oil from Iran, located in the Persian Gulf (the most great source of oil in the world) "add.

If this happens, China would be forced to buy oil in the United States, for which Trump would be a panacea, but that Beijing would be "totally unacceptable".

"Especially in the midst of a trade war between the United States and China."

Weitz agrees that – out of necessity – China regards the import of Iranian oil as a "currency of exchange" in its negotiations with the Trump government.

"China's main interest is to resolve the trade war with the United States, so it is willing to reduce or increase Iranian oil imports if it facilitates negotiations," he said.

However, at Schieldrop's discretion, the continuation of Iranian oil purchases goes beyond the commercial war.

"China knows that buying large quantities of Iranian oil can overturn Donald's sanctions against Tehran and could also cause the collapse of the price of crude or damage the rise of shale oil in the United States, which would start at very low prices. " he points out.

But the Norwegian badyst believes that Beijing does not want – at least for the moment – directly face the sanctions of the United States and Iran, although it still imports a smaller amount to maintain its position on the subject. .

For the moment, he says, the ships will continue to disappear from the radar or new methods will be found to circumvent the sanctions.

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