Strong concern of businessmen for the offer, the labor laws and the uncertainty of the country

The government is convinced of a rapid recovery of industrial sectors after the pandemic. The Minister of the Economy himself, Martin guzman, underlined a few days ago that they observe a “robust” and constant growth of the various sectors and yesterday the index of use of installed capacities was known, which shows that the highest percentage was reached in January compared to the same months of the past three years.

But At the same time as this growth, the industrial sectors are starting to give indications on the conflicts which can, when they visualize the problems which, they assure, do not allow to guarantee the production of goods in a context of recovery of the activity ” .

The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) published the report Sector and regional diagnosis: the work agenda where it marks conflicts in certain sectors which, they underline, could constitute a brake on this process of growth.

“After 2020 fully crossed by the economic and operational consequences of the pandemic, in the first months of 2021 the industrial prospects show some improvement, even if they are still not free from new difficulties”, begins the work which explains that in line with the resumption of production at the end of 2020, “in January 2021, there was an improvement in production and sales indicators”.

The UIA investigation therefore indicates that 25% of the companies consulted “recorded an increase in production and 41% said that the units produced were unchanged from the last quarter of 2020. The remaining 34% indicated a decrease from the average for the last quarter of 2020. 2020. ″.

One point of interest to both businesses and Casa Rosada concerns exports and, consequently, the inflow of dollars. In this post, 27% of companies reported that their sales were down from the fourth quarter 2020 average. The weakness of industrial exports has worsened since the outbreak of the pandemic and in 2020 they fell by -31% year-on-year. year. On this basis, from the UIA, they stress that “it will be essential to develop an acute policy concerning the recovery of foreign markets, with a reduction of the duties on MOI and processed foods, reimbursements, credits, among others. . “

But the positive data of the reactivation of the activity is that the payment chain has been rebuilt but “delays persist”. According to the survey, 22% of companies could not pay taxes, 14% financial commitments, 9% suppliers, the same percentage did not pay public service charges, and 4% wages.

Another classic of the sector is the demand for access to credit. Although he indicates that “there has been an improvement in working capital lines”, manufacturers assure that it continues to be “limited”. With restrictions on the conditions, amounts and rates of investment lines. “43% of all businesses had a higher demand for credit, but only 38% of the total could access the amount needed.”

But in this new normal where industrial companies seem to be starting to embark on the path of improvement, there are also new drawbacks or problems that were believed to be resolved.

Among the difficulties they recognize and which have reappeared, there are those related to logistics. Almost 40% of those consulted said that suppliers’ deliveries “were delayed”. When we look for the reasons for this rupture of the just in time, they explained that the extension of delivery times for suppliers “was the consequence of transport stoppages and blockages suffered by industrial establishments”, such as the one suffered by the Vicente López industrial park a few weeks ago when the Truckers blocked their access.

Regarding staff, manufacturers show that one of the new problems they have to face is that of the expenses that appeared in 2020 which are still present, such as transport and workers exempt from being in danger. To these costs are added the tests. “51% of the companies consulted are in charge of Covid detection tests,” the report indicates.

Another point related to personnel and which at first glance seems good news but hides a claim is that, in parallel with the recovery, the industry was increasing the demand for employment. “18% of companies said that in January the number of workers increased from December and only 14% said a decrease,” the report said.

However, employers explain that part of this increase is due to the “need to compensate for the high percentage of exempt workers (12.5% ​​on average)” for confirmed cases or Covid contacts and workers over the age of 60 years.

In this sense, they again opposed the labor laws, in particular the one which establishes the freeze on dismissals. 69% of the companies surveyed said that “if these regulations were not presented, their workforce would increase”.

But to the complexity of the market and labor regulations, manufacturers add macroeconomic uncertainty. According to respondents in the medium term, the reconstitution of salaried employment in industry, which despite the recent increase is still 13% below the levels of 2015 (161,000 fewer jobs), “has several obstacles to come. Macroeconomic uncertainty and dismissal lawsuits are the main factors discouraging medium-term hires: they affect 73% and 67% of companies respectively. Obsolete collective agreements (45%) ”.

Finally, and despite this complex scenario they describe, the businessmen who took part in the UIA survey point out that business expectations “have continued to improve from the low levels of 2020. Good that 36% expect the country’s economic situation to improve in the following year (only 11% indicate that the situation has improved last year), the numbers are better at the company level and of the sector, with 50% of companies with positive expectations ”.

In any case, they explain that the results “reflect the need to enhance macroeconomic predictability. The sustainability of growth will depend on the ability to replenish employment and investment. Generating the right incentives is a priority. “

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