Strong dollars from the field would come in December – 07/08/2018

Almost a year ago, we are talking about drought and its devastating effects on an economy like Argentina, which is struggling to make money except in the United States. # 39; agribusiness. Most scholars point out that we are now going to talk about a record crop and foreign exchange that will come in in the late spring, when the weather permits. Other experts warn against a disturbing international scenario that impacts on the prices of what we export at the pace of the trade war unleashed by Donald Trump. There is, however, evidence to suggest that the taba has returned.

Pablo Adreani, agribusiness consultant, projects an influx of foreign currency for US $ 16.243 million over the next 12 months. "If the weather does not produce surprises like the one we knew, the 2019 harvest could reach a record 143 million tonnes and bring a total of 30 billion US dollars to be completed in December 2019."

the prediction is satisfied, it would be the largest crop in history and, according to Adreani, the currency income will be the second highest, " only exceeded in the 2014 harvest when it s 39; is committed for a total of $ 33,500 million "

Of course, we will have to sleep during this second semester, until the wheat crop appears in December, since it is expected a very meager foreign currency of only 3,000 million US dollars the youngest of the last decade. It is likely that in this scenario, Casa Rosada will try, as it has already done, an agreement with exporters to advance dollars because of the harvest. "It is difficult to rebuild the income of the currencies in the second half of this year.This is the result of the fall of 25 million tons of soybean production and 8 million tons of corn", Adreani adds.

Regarding the behavior of international awards, Juan Manuel Garzón of the Mediterranean Foundation draws attention to what has happened over the last two months with the price of soybeans that dropped by 10 % in Chicago and something similar is seen in corn. "This rearrangement is generating concern and raises questions as to whether this negative trend can be deepened." The explanation for the price adjustment might be due to the Chinese soybean demand, which is less dynamic than expected. there is a significant risk badociated with a possible overestimation of global demand and world imports in a scenario of escalating trade conflict between the United States and other world powers, "he said. As of this month, US soybeans enter China with a extraordinary tariff of 25%, "a clearly bearish factor for US soybeans, and also for soybeans all over the world if Chinese demand slows in a context of greater uncertainty "

For Fernando Vilella, holder of the Agribusiness Chair of the Faculty of Agronomy (UBA), producers are thinking of reversing the situation of failure of the last campaign by investing US $ 10 billion, increasing the area planted and, thanks to the devaluation, observes increases in technology and fertilization. "In growing wheat and barley, we expect a super harvest," he says. In soybeans, there will be growth in acreage and similar areas of maize and sorghum this year, says Vilella who estimates 37 million hectares sown, a level never before achieved.