Strong growth in Argentine wheat sales of the new crop

Argentine wheat sales for the 2018/2019 season, which will begin harvesting in November, are 20.93% ahead of the same period in 2017. This has been reported This week, the Directorate of Planning and Market Analysis of the Ministry of Agro-Industry of the nation. The agency explained that up to 11 of the current exporters bought 3,089,400 tons of cereals, compared with 2,554,600 tons bought at the same time last year.

The strong interest of exporters and the seduction they exercised over the course of the year The producer prices, much higher than those in force a year ago, are the main fundamentals of the fluidity that reflects the market, with a global context that also accompanies the least expected harvests in Russia, the world's largest exporter and in some countries. The European Union.

"A year ago, the new wheat was trading at $ 177.30 per tonne, but the range of values ​​for the pre-harvest cereal for the 2017/2018 crop was $ 153 to $ 178. Buenos Aires' terminal market has closed with a value of $ 195, but it has already peaked at $ 200, "said Dolores Rodríguez Pareja, of the Morgan brokerage, García Mansilla y Cía. been registered in the market available for operations
to transmit .

For Federico Di Yenno, of the Information and Economic Studies Department of the Rosario Stock Exchange, the price level and the need to replace the working capital by the producers "they help to realize the business to harvest, after the drought has undermined the financial results of the heavy 2017/2018 campaign. "

He added that external demand (current and future) is supporting the price of Argentine cereals, helping so that the sector exports can close a good volume of business. "This is reflected in the Affidavits of Foreign Sales (DJVE), which currently set a historic record for the time, at 3,292,000 million tonnes," he said. A year ago, according to official statistics, the export had not yet treated DJVE

In the same sense, Rodríguez Pareja pointed out that, in this new trade cycle, "exporters were selling faster than they 'd buy it, they took a lot of orders from abroad and came out to cover this solid demand for Argentine grain, and such was the expectation of good deals external that today there are more DJVE than real purchases ". The specialist said that at current prices, Argentina is the "best wheat supplier for Brazil" and that it remains competitive to place production in North African countries. and Asia, "according to a cycle in which some of the major suppliers will have a lower exportable balance. "

Adrián Seltzer, of the brokerage firm Granar SA, explained to
THE NATION that the large volume of DJVE could be related, too, with the recent rumors about retentions. "Nobody certainly wants to take the risk of not declaring the transactions that are taking place and meeting one morning with the announcement of the game rules change in the Official Gazette." Although the official statements in the opposite direction to the return of the deductions for the cereals are constant, it is necessary to not lose sight of that the political decisions throughout our history have been taken against what has been said previously. Climate and politics are very difficult anticipatory factors and fill this process. – This is to limit the risks, simply, "explained Seltzer.

Continuity sign

What is appreciated with the progress of 2018/2019 wheat sales is the continuation of the trend of the current 2017/2018 campaign, in which the DJVE add up to 11,014,500 tons, 13 , 95% above 9 666 000 tonnes in the 2016/2017 cycle.

"The marketing of the 2017/2018 campaign generated a favorable business pace and left good marketing expectations for the next," said Di Yenno. And he said that the recovery of the Brazilian economy and the country's purchasing programming "play and will play an important role for the realization of external affairs for the Argentine cereals."

According to Seltzer, the 39 Interest in closing margins has increased in recent years. "To the extent that the values ​​offered by the export are in line with the expectations of the producers, the market achieves interesting volumes," said the specialist. He added that the reasons why he raises the interest in selling in advance are the usual seasonal low in prices between mid-November and the end of December, when the harvest enters the commercial circuit. .

a year like this, where the number of producers who have suffered losses in the big harvest is large, it is clear that the financial commitments for this period are important, not only, but there are a lot of producers with late debts that they can not play with the financial pbades, nor with the freight differentials outside the harvest, for them, the delivery of the grain at the time of the harvest is unavoidable ", has declared by Seltzer

Rosario estimates that the 2018/2019 wheat harvest "goes for a record production of 20 million tonnes", after having increased by 13.81% the area intended for the cereal compared to the previous season from 5.43 to 6.18 million hectares, while the US Department of Agriculture recently estimated the Argentine harvest at 19.50 million tonnes and the exportable 14.20 million tonnes.

"With the Wheat, we have a good example of healthy market elimination of restraints and restrictions that complicated their exports, today we aspire to a greater supply and we see a more friendly external context, "concluded Rodríguez Pareja.

Firm stage for the 2018/2019 cycle

• 20.93% – Advance Shipments: Up to now, exporters have purchased 3,089,400 tonnes of wheat, up from 2,554,600 tonnes purchased a year ago
• Best price: Before the $ 177.30 in force a year ago, yesterday the position of wheat in Matba closed with a price of $ 195
• 20 MT – Record Harvest: The Rosario Stock Exchange plans a record crop of wheat, with 20 million tons